Helsinki is convinced that the culprit of the accident on the gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland will soon be known, Iltalehti writes. There is no evidence that Russia is involved in the incident. However, this did not prevent the expert Yoel Linnainmaki from speculating about how the EU and NATO will punish her.
Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations Joel Linnainmaki believes that the name of the culprit is likely to be named.
What happens if it turns out that Russia is involved in the damage to the gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland? Joel Linnainmäki, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, says that in the current situation, Finland, NATO and the European Union have room for action. According to his estimates, it is likely that the culprit will be identified soon.
"During the investigation, we can find out who is behind the damage: a private person or the state. If the culprit turns out to be some state, it will be possible to conclude who exactly is interested in this and has the capabilities to commit sabotage. In this case, Finland will certainly cooperate with NATO and the EU."
"Both NATO and the EU will certainly want to react."
The big players should help
According to Linnainmaki, the costs of providing hybrid influence, for example, for Russia, are small. The West should think about how to make it more difficult to carry out such attacks in the future.
NATO can increase its presence and control in the Baltic Sea. In this case, the risk of being caught for the culprit will be higher. According to Linnainmaki, larger NATO member states, such as the United States, Britain and France, could consider how to strengthen Russia's deterrence - for example, with the help of cyber attacks.
"It should be recalled that the West has the ability to respond to hostile hybrid activity. At the same time, it is obvious that NATO wants to avoid a direct escalation with Russia."
The EU, for its part, can supplement NATO's measures with tougher sanctions.
Linnainmaki is sure that Finland should not lag behind the EU and NATO. Finland itself can take diplomatic countermeasures.
"For example, at UN meetings and bilateral meetings with different countries, Finland can raise awareness of Russia's activities and seek its condemnation. Finland could respond bilaterally by expelling Russian diplomats from the country."
"NATO is responding"
So far, information about how to act in the current situation seems rather vague.
"If it turns out that an element of the NATO infrastructure has been attacked by external forces, the situation will be serious, NATO will react decisively and join forces," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commented on the situation.
Stoltenberg participated in a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, during which damage to the gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was also discussed.
On October 11, candidates for the post of President of Finland Mika Aaltola, Pekka Haavisto and Alexander Stubb announced on the MTV Asia ytimesssä program the need to conduct a thorough investigation before making any conclusions.
"If it turns out that Russia is the culprit, and this action was deliberate, then, of course, it will affect the anti-Russian sanctions. The incident should also affect the control of our infrastructure," former Foreign Minister Haavisto commented to MTV.
Author: Heini Kilpamäki