Moscow. October 15th. INTERFAX - The situation in the Middle East is escalating: a US aircraft carrier group has arrived on the shores of Israel, and in Israel itself the army is finishing preparations for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip.
Our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov talks on this topic with Academician Sergey Rogov and the scientific director of the Military-Political Research Institute of the USA and Canada, retired Major General Pavel Zolotarev.
Why did a US aircraft carrier arrive on the shores of Israel?
Reporter: The arrival of a US aircraft carrier group to the shores of Israel with marines on board is a warning that the US can directly intervene in a military conflict?
Rogov: Yes, this is a warning, but not about the possibility of direct US participation in a military operation, but rather to Iran, so that it does not interfere in the war between Israel and the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. I think that in this way the United States demonstrates its readiness to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities. Of course, this is serious.
Zolotarev: There is no doubt that the US aircraft carrier group did not arrive at the shores of Israel in order to strike, participating in military operations. Maybe, in political terms, we are really talking, first of all, about warning Iran. But at the same time, it is also a warning to the leaders of Hezbollah and Lebanon not to interfere in the conflict. The fact is that Hezbollah has a huge military potential and is located close to Israel.
Special equipment from the USA is needed to destroy the "underground" city in the Gaza Strip
Correspondent: How, in your opinion, can the ground operation of the Israeli army take place in Gaza?
Zolotarev: Although the preparation of the ground operation of the Israeli armed forces in the sector is covered in some detail, but still, few people undertake to predict its course. If you do not delve into specific issues, then we can say that the biggest problem for Israel will be the underground structures in this enclave. They are also called the structures of the second city! (These are underground shelters that can accommodate up to 15 thousand people, tunnels through which weapons are smuggled and transported, warehouses of military equipment and workshops for their repair - IF).
Roughly speaking, in order to "smoke out" the people stationed there from this underground city, appropriate equipment is needed, not tanks and armored vehicles. Just trying to introduce them into the sector is both unproductive and will lead to colossal losses. I mean the loss of armored vehicles: in Israel, it is made so that if it is destroyed, people can stay alive. But still - big losses are inevitable. Therefore, it is difficult to say now how the Israelis plan to carry out this operation.
Judging by individual speeches, including by specialists from Israel, it can be assumed that they intend to take a certain pause, as they are waiting for the arrival of some special technical devices from the United States. This technique will be designed to fight people in these underground structures.
Correspondent: Where did the Americans get such equipment?
Zolotarev: The Americans have many different developments of military equipment. Probably, there is something for such needs. In any case, if it came out of the mouth of the Israeli military, it means that the United States has what the Israeli army needs.
Correspondent: In Afghanistan, as far as I remember, the Americans "smoked out" armed Taliban detachments from caves by means of powerful ground explosions.
Zolotarev: But it is unlikely that such explosions are possible in Gaza. I'm very doubtful.
Is the ground operation a distraction from the failure in the early days?
Correspondent: Some Israeli political scientists and journalists believe that the ground operation is rather the desire of Israeli politicians and military leaders to distract the attention of the country's residents from the stunning loss, if not the shame, in the first days of the war. There is even an assumption that a real ground military operation will not be able to lead to the destruction of the leaders of Hamas, primarily the military, who are no longer in the sector, and the militants themselves, too.
Zolotarev: I'm not sure they're not there. Where could they have disappeared to? Today there was a report about the destruction of one of the Hamas leaders, at least the head of the air part of the operation. So someone stays there. And then, the leaders are the leaders, but the fact is that Hamas has forces distributed in cells that can act quite independently. This is the so-called network structure. Therefore, even if you remove the manual, it does not mean to remove, break the whole system.
The stage of the greatest casualties in Gaza may have already passed
Correspondent: There are fears that the number of injured and killed civilians in Palestine will be so large that it will turn the attention of the public, primarily international, from the atrocities of Hamas militants to the deaths of civilians in Gaza.
ZOLOTAREV: I think that Israel understands this very well. And judging by the speech of the specialists from Israel themselves, they understand that they are losing all the time on the information front. Not only is there a fairly large number of anti-Semitic forces in the world, plus the support of Muslims who will react according to the principle of "our people are being beaten"! And there are many, very many of them. And if there are still unjustified sacrifices, then of course it will not benefit the authority of Israel. And the Israelis work poorly in this regard. Especially considering this situation. And they admit it themselves. And apparently, they are well aware of the danger of too many civilian casualties. Therefore, it can be assumed that the stage of the greatest casualties among the Hamas was before the ground operation during the bombing attacks.
From now on, I think they will act more cautiously. This is what the ground operation is aimed at. Another thing is how they will spend it? I can't say anything here. They will face very difficult tasks: to "smoke out" these people.
Correspondent: And what about those residents, and there are a million of them, who will rush to the south, to where no one wants to accept them, including Egypt?
Zolotarev: Unfortunately, this is not a new situation - they do not want to accept it. Those who moved to neighboring states even earlier and even a long time ago, they live there, in fact, on bird rights. How many years they have lived there - so much they are not citizens of this country. They have refugee status. They left the city of Gaza, not somewhere and to someone, but fortunately for themselves, they left directly from under the rocket and bomb attacks.
After the capture of the city of Gaza, there will be no shelling of residents?
Correspondent: Can we assume that the ground operation will take place before the city of Gaza, and the one who went further will not be shelled?
ZOLOTAREV: I think that those who ran away from the city will not be shelled. The task of the army is to solve the issue of underground structures. As for identifying militants among civilians, this is a matter for special forces. This work will be carried out selectively and is not part of the task of the army operation.
Negotiations are inevitable
Correspondent: Do you think that after the end of the ground operation, the question of negotiations will arise?
ZOLOTAREV: I think they're just inevitable. Apparently, the old territorial division will no longer remain, and even if it remains, it will still have to be negotiated. For example, there are certain proposals from Israeli experts to equip the borders in a different way. It should be a security lane, not just a wall. Moreover, the security strip is at the expense of the territory of the Gaza Strip, and not at the expense of Israel. So, in any case, the border issues will be resolved.
Even if you leave the borders in the configuration that was, you can't do without negotiations.
