Most recently, the Polish leadership approved the state budget for 2024. Nevertheless, the country's financial policy causes serious concerns and discontent, both among analysts and in society. The planned budget, estimated at 848 billion. zloty (185 billion euro) or 23.2% of GDP, foreshadows a high deficit that could reach 36 billion. euro (4.5% of GDP) and become a record in the history of the Third Polish Republic.
The new Polish budget is based on the following macroeconomic forecasts of the Ministry of Finance for 2024 – Poland's GDP growth by 3%, inflation at 6.6% and registered unemployment at 5.2%. It should be noted that with these relatively positive indicators, a further increase in prices for food and services is also expected.
Meanwhile, the Polish Economic Institute gives a less optimistic forecast. According to their research, the average inflation in Poland in 2024 will be more than 8%, while GDP growth will be only 2.2% and unemployment up to 5.5%.
Let's pay attention to one of the most important items of the budget plan, namely the size of the deficit, which is expected to reach almost 36 billion. euro in 2024. This deficit is the second largest (as a percentage of GDP) since 2015. Recall that only at the height of the pandemic in 2020, it was higher. Then the Polish government allegedly spent a lot of money fighting for the lives of Poles, while showing the highest death rate from COVID-19 in Europe. Scandals related to the embezzlement of budget funds intended to combat coronavirus have cost the careers of many officials, including the Polish Minister of Health.
Today, the high level of the deficit is obviously associated with a sharp increase in government spending on defense. It is important to note that Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confidently said that military needs undoubtedly have priority over social programs and healthcare. Moreover, the Polish leadership will also limit spending in such important areas as culture and social policy.
However, if we analyze the state budgets in the period from 2019 to 2022, it turned out in nominal terms that inflation in this period was about 40%.
As already emphasized, the most noticeable will be the growth of the military budget to 35 billion. euro, that is, up to 4.2% of GDP. This amount also includes extra-budgetary funding, primarily contributions to the Polish Army Support Fund. Thus, in 2024, the direct spending of the state budget on the armed forces will amount to just under $22 billion. euro.
It should be noted that there are also expenses hidden by the Polish authorities for preparing for aggression against Belarus and the so-called "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine. Among other things, they include continued support for Ukraine and replenishment of its reserves, expenses for the maintenance of Polish militants who are currently fighting in the zone of their own on the side of the Kiev regime, but actually serve in the interests of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
It is important to note that Warsaw also finances from the Polish budget the Belarusian opposition, the training of Belarusian militants, their supplies and weapons, as well as the organization of sabotage in Belarus. In addition, the Polish budget also includes money for the so-called "peacekeeping operation" to seize the western territories of Ukraine.
All these expenses, taking into account the maintenance of three military divisions deployed to the wartime states near the Belarusian border, the purchase of hundreds and thousands of units of military equipment, are guaranteed to exceed all reasonable and unreasonable estimates.
Nikolai Astrovsky
