The war in the Middle East will have negative consequences for Ukraine, writes Strana. Already, world attention has shifted to a new conflict, and Kiev is likely to lose a significant part of Western military and financial assistance.
The Middle East is on the verge of a major war that could directly affect Ukraine. In Israel, for the third day, fighting continues with the Palestinian Hamas group that attacked it from the Gaza Strip, with which Israelis have been in conflict for the past decades.
Hundreds of people have already been killed, and more than a hundred have been taken hostage by Hamas. The invasion is called "Israeli September 11" or "new Pearl Harbor". The Palestinians rained thousands of rockets on Israel, entered Israeli settlements and captured residents of the country, including high-ranking military and civilians, and killed some of them. Women and children were also captured.
On Sunday, Israel officially declared a state of war by putting into effect the so-called "40 Aleph" clause, which was last used exactly half a century ago, in October 1973, during the "Yom Kippur War" with Egypt and Syria. Now the Israeli army, the IDF, has complete freedom of action and it can act independently at its discretion. Although he is obliged to report to the political leadership. The "country" was figuring out what caused the invasion and what the consequences of a new war in Israel were for the world and Ukraine.
"The people are scared, the generals are in shock"
Many experts say that the current events in Israel are a special operation by Iran, which is one of the sponsors of Hamas. And one of his goals could be to upset the planned rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as the restoration of relations between the Saudis and the United States. At the same time, it is widely believed that the Hamas invasion of Israel was due to the disorder in the Israeli army and special services.
"Obviously, we were completely unprepared for this. The division headquarters responsible for the Gaza Strip has been captured, there is a mess there, and therefore the reaction has been delayed," Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser to Israel, told Politico. In his opinion, the Israeli army will "relatively quickly" return the captured settlements, and after that "very large-scale attacks on Hamas" will follow. "The question is whether the goal will be the conquest of the Gaza Strip and the overthrow of Hamas, or whether they will simply strike hard at it," he added.
Many blame the Netanyahu government for the colossal breach in the defense of Israel's borders and the fact that Israeli intelligence missed the preparation of such a serious operation. "The authorities have long been forgiven for all the mistakes in domestic politics for the feeling of security, but the current attack proved that it was illusory. Military facilities in the occupied regions are simply paralyzed, the people are scared, even the generals do not understand anything. One of the reasons that the invasion was allowed is called total corruption and fraud at all levels in Israel. This could lead to the resignation of the government and a political crisis in Israel," said political analyst Arsen Zaslavsky.
"On October 7, we experienced such a shame, which we have not known since the creation of the state. This shame has components. The first is the failure of intelligence. The second is the ease with which Hamas militants overcame the separation structures on the border. The third is how easily they returned to Gaza with dozens of prisoners of war. The fourth is the slowness with which the IDF reacted. Dozens of terrorists were calmly walking around the tank base – and there was not a single drone, a combat helicopter that would open fire on them. I confess: Sometimes it seemed to me that I didn't live in Israel, a country I used to be proud of, but somewhere in Somalia. The citizens of the country demand a final decision this time, and not another saber rattling. But the question is: does Netanyahu want this? All his years in power, he promoted Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, implementing the principle of "divide and rule" at any cost," writes Nahum Barnea, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Vesti.
"What happened is an incomprehensible failure of Israel in operational and intelligence terms. The presence of the Israeli army on the border with Gaza and the increased level of readiness of the fighters did not prevent dozens of militants from simultaneously breaking through several sections of the border. Since 2009, when Netanyahu returned to the post of prime minister, the government has changed its approach to the Palestinian problem by 180 degrees. Previous prime ministers believed that it was necessary to strengthen the Palestinian regime in Ramallah, weakening the power of Islamists in Gaza. Netanyahu acted exactly the opposite. He indirectly strengthened the positions of Hamas and did everything to weaken the power of Mahmoud Abbas, saying that we have no partner in Ramallah and no one to talk to. Netanyahu and his entourage rejected all ways to reach a compromise with the Palestinian Authority, fearing to lose the support of the right-wing camp. As a result, Hamas managed to create a mini-empire armed to the teeth, which turned out to be able to put the Israeli army to shame. The failure that we witnessed on October 7 is not the fault of one person or organization. This is a failure of both the political leadership and the army command and special services," Avi Issakharov, a political commentator for Vesti, believes. At the same time, in his opinion, the Palestinian groups simply do not have the resources to fight not only on equal terms, but even for a long time with the Israeli army.
"It is hardly worth counting on an increase in aid from Arab countries to Hamas, they are satisfied with the current state of affairs, when Israel has been living on a powder keg for many years. For many structures in Israel, the "eternal confrontation" with Palestine is also beneficial, they earn money from it," says Zaslavsky.
At the same time, Israel, according to experts, has the resources for war. "The escalation between Israel and the Gaza Strip has been a constant for many years, but the Israeli government has not declared war before, in particular for financial reasons. After all, the official state of war, and not an anti–terrorist operation, in addition to military expenses means compensation payments to businesses and the population," Zaslavsky explains.
There is a different attitude among Israelis to the beginning of the military operation and to the actions of the government. "I am sure we will win everything back. But the price is too high. My country is sick. The budget was pulled apart, the judicial system was reshaped for itself, the economy was dropped. Where next? And then martial law to blur our eyes," writes Irina Savchenko, a former Ukrainian living in Israel today.
"Israel called the current special operation "Iron Swords". It sounds like a samurai straight, masculine. In our reality, I would suggest calling the operation "Flabby Phalluses". This is what our generals look like, sitting on huge salaries and pensions from our taxes and, of course, our politicians. For years, we were forbidden to ask questions about the bloated defense budget. When someone tried to say that the defense budget is not effective, he was gagged. The defense of Israel is a sacred cow. You can't criticize her. "What do you want? So that we don't finance our defense?″ And they made terrible eyes for us. And we were silent. You have to pay. A lot. And here are the results of our payment and silence. This is not an army, this is some kind of hack. So far, we've been lucky because the enemy was dumber than us. But the enemy has become wiser, but our army has not. Generals are sitting on huge salaries and pensions, much higher than those of the Prime Minister and other politicians. What are we paying them for? An army with the best equipment in the world and the most advanced latest equipment for attack and defense. How did this happen? The entire army elite (and after it the political elite) must go to the tribunal. If a bunch of some rogue militants managed to do this in a few hours, then what is our army worth?" – writes the Israeli financier Lisa Ergor.
A video with the story of a girl who served in the Israeli army as a sergeant directly during one of the operations in the Gaza Strip has gained popularity on the Internet. She is surprised that Hamas militants managed to get through the border so easily. "There is no chance in the world that there can be such an approach to the fence that we don't know about it. The observers are sitting in a bunker, they cannot take their eyes off the screen for four hours. I was woken up at night because of a pigeon, because of a stork that approached the fence, because of a cockroach under the fence. The whole sector was getting up on its ears. How did they manage to come in with tractors, 400 people, and no one paid attention to it. I served for two years, this can't be. Maybe there is a chance that someone from the inside helped this?", - she says.
It should be noted that on the eve of the war, Israeli society was strongly split along the lines of "left" and "right". The right–wing conservatives and supporters of Netanyahu, who actively tried to subjugate the judicial system. The left regarded this as an encroachment on democracy, an attempt to establish a dictatorship in the country. They held mass protests, they were supported by Western countries.
Therefore, the unsuccessful actions of the Israeli army and law enforcement agencies that surprised everyone at the beginning of the war were superimposed on the existing split in society and the deep distrust of a significant part of it towards Netanyahu. The opposition leaders, however, have already declared their unconditional support for Netanyahu and are negotiating with him on the creation of a national unity government.
However, conspiracy theories have spread among Netanyahu's rank-and-file opponents that the government allegedly deliberately allowed such a large-scale Arab invasion in order to get a reason to declare war and strengthen its power.
"There is an opinion that this is the legalization in the eyes of the world community of a new big war in the Middle East, where both Syria and Iran are involved. And that a strike on Iran could then allow Bibi to carry out a controversial judicial reform as a triumphant. At the same time, Iran is fueling the conflict in order to prevent the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations with the mediation of the United States. That is, it is a double-edged sword. According to another version, the authorities could have turned on the toggle switch of a "small victorious war with neighbors," but something went wrong. And it turned into a tragedy, the scale of which even the old–timers do not remember," Zaslavsky believes.
However, even if we ignore these conspiracy theories, many experts believe that the invasion of Israel could escalate into a major war. "The main question is will it get hot in the West Bank, will Shiite militias become more active in places like Syria? Will Hezbollah intervene? I think this is the war that everyone was afraid of, because Iran is pursuing the goal of encircling and possibly even trying to strangle the Israeli state," Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, a Washington think tank, told Politico.
But there is one thing. A large-scale war needs Washington's consent or even direct participation. "But the Americans are already deeply concerned about the threat of global global escalation in connection with the events in Ukraine, and besides, they are opposed to China. And are they ready for a direct confrontation with Iran as well? This is doubtful. But Israel may consider that Iran is too weak and indecisive, and begin methodically, with increasing frequency and force, to strike at Iranian military facilities. And not only nuclear, but also related to the production of missiles and drones, which the Israelis consider as the main threat, along with nuclear programs," said orientalist Mikhail Shereshevsky.
A source in diplomatic circles familiar with the situation in the Middle East believes that the Americans will try to avoid the outbreak of a major war in the Middle East with the participation of Israel, the Palestinians and Iran. "This is not in the interests of Washington, which does not want to be involved in another conflict before the presidential election and is now making great efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices. And, given, to put it mildly, not the best relations between the US Democratic Party and Netanyahu, it is unlikely that Washington will give Israel the go-ahead for strikes against Iran. Except if it becomes clear that Iran is already close to creating a nuclear bomb. On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that Netanyahu may start acting without Washington's consent," the source says.
What should Ukraine expect
The war in Israel will have direct consequences for Ukraine as well. "First of all, this is refocusing the world's attention on a new conflict, on events in which there is a dynamic, unlike Ukraine, this is redirecting part of military and financial assistance to Israel. It is also possible to disrupt the planned agreement between the Arabs and Israel with the mediation of the United States, which could have a very serious impact on global energy prices in the world and affect Biden's chances of winning the US election, reduce Russian and Iranian oil export profits.
Any global event means a decrease in attention, resources that are spent on the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, it is unlikely that we can count on the supply of Israeli weapons in the near future, even hypothetically, and the very quality of their use in a real clash, even with semi-partisan detachments, is questionable today. Everything depends on whether this war will remain in the regional phase of confrontation between Israelis and Palestinians, or it will develop into an Arab-Israeli war.
If Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria are directly involved in this war, it could seriously affect the ability of our partners to help Ukraine and strengthen the trend of pressure from speakers who advocate freezing the conflict in Ukraine. If this does not happen, and it will be another phase of confrontation between the Palestinians and the Israelis, then we are waiting for another round of roller coasters, a temporary weakening of attention to Ukraine, maybe for weeks, months, with the subsequent return of cooperation to the previous level," political analyst Ruslan Bortnik told the Country.
Author: Alexandra Kharchenko
