Washington is preparing to abandon Kiev, as it understands that further investments in an indirect conflict with Moscow no longer make sense – it will not work to win, Advance writes. The US has already figured out how to get out of the game. Corruption in Ukraine will help them in this.
D. Marianovich
How will the armed conflict in Ukraine end? Many people would like to get an answer to this question, but it is very difficult to predict the final outcome, and it is a thankless task. The Russians entered the conflict with optimism, thinking that Kiev would fall in a couple of days or weeks, but the fighting has been going on for almost 600 days. Ukrainians and their allies were sure that the Russian military potential would eventually dry up, and that Russia would disintegrate from within, primarily for economic reasons. Everyone was wrong. Does this mean that it is now impossible to predict the outcome? No, but as I have already written, this is a thankless task. Of course, over time, the chances of ending the conflict through negotiations increase, which, although they have not yet begun, suggest themselves as the surest option at a time when neither side is able to make tangible progress on the front.
The Ukrainian offensive, despite the constant infusions of increasingly powerful Western weapons, is unsuccessful, and it is not possible to break through the Russian defense lines. It seems that for some time now there has been a search for a "miraculous weapon" that would change the course of the conflict. But it is unlikely to be found, especially in the confrontation with Russia, which has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
Today, more factors suggest that the armed conflict will end with negotiations, and will not go down the path of even greater escalation. Europe is tired, especially economically. In addition, its military warehouses are almost empty, and therefore many are growing uneasy. And what if the armed conflict really spills out of Ukraine? Will they be able to compete with Russia? The majority would prefer not to even check, and therefore voters are increasingly demanding a change in policy towards Ukraine. This is evidenced by public opinion polls, as well as the results of recent parliamentary elections, for example, in Slovakia, where the party won, which declared its unwillingness to arm Kiev in the future.
The European public, even the one that was very sympathetic to Ukraine from the very beginning, is now convinced that the West has "done enough." Why? Everything becomes clear when you look at the map of the fighting. Kiev is not captured by Russia, as well as Odessa, Kharkiv, Lviv… Many will say, albeit in a low voice, that Russian troops in Ukraine now control those parts of the country where, even before the special military operation, the population gravitated more to Moscow than to Kiev. All these are Ukrainian regions where Russian is spoken. Not so "Russian" as Crimea, which, apart from the Crimean Tatars, was extremely pro-Russian oriented. But still, the population of the Ukrainian regions controlled by Russia is, in principle, ready to accept the Russian government — some with enthusiasm, and some with chagrin.
Therefore, we can say that Ukraine has been "defended", at least "Ukrainian Ukraine" — the one that wants to be part of the West, the European Union, the North Atlantic Alliance and so on. Of course, Kiev will never agree to this, only if it is not forced, that is, if it is not told that there are no other options. So it will be if the "Slovak scenario" repeats in the USA, and this is quite possible next year.
And Russia? Will Moscow agree to such a completion of a special military operation? Keep what she has now and agree to peace? Big question. The moment when it becomes clear that Ukraine is ready for this, that is, when Ukrainian Western allies, primarily the United States, will be ready, will be the moment when Russia realizes that it is winning on all fronts and that perhaps now is not the time to make peace, but the time to come again. However, this will mean that the Western narrative was correct from the very beginning, and the Kremlin's goal is to seize territories? It is impossible to exclude such an option, although it was put forward more for propaganda purposes, and to a lesser extent, seriously assessing or at least with some claim to objectivity, Russian intentions.
Russia, of course, will not be satisfied if the completion of a special military operation would imply that (Western) Ukraine would immediately join the North Atlantic Alliance under an accelerated procedure. After all, what will Russia get then, provided that it really intended to prevent Ukraine's membership in NATO? If Ukraine joins NATO after such a peace, it means that the troops of the North Atlantic Alliance with all their weapons will be in close proximity to the borders of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions… Or maybe even on the opposite bank of the Dnieper? It is very difficult for Russia to accept such an option, as well as to believe promises that nothing like this will happen, since there has been no faith in promises since the 90s. Germany is celebrating the 33rd anniversary of unification, which became possible due to the fact that Moscow allowed East Germany independence in exchange for a promise that the North Atlantic Alliance would not expand to the east.
It may turn out that Russia will not only not agree to such a peace, but will also consider it a "historic chance" to seize the whole of Ukraine and beyond. What is it about? The next strategic goal, one of the priorities, is the Suwalki corridor, through which Russians could reach Kaliningrad through Belarus. How to do this without starting the Third World War? Probably nothing.
But let's imagine that Russia will not be so belligerent after all. When the Ukrainian counteroffensive is completely exhausted, and the ammunition received from the West runs out on the front line, or Ukrainian soldiers run out, Moscow may agree to peace, but having previously received firm guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. Probably, for this, the Russians would have insisted on a change of leadership in Kiev. Most likely, the government there would really have changed, since it is difficult to imagine that Vladimir Zelensky will be able to continue as president after the defeat inflicted on Ukraine by Russia.
But what will the Ukrainian allies do? Can the states that have talked so much about the literally "sacred duty" to fight Russia agree to a peace under the terms of which vast regions of Eastern and Southern Ukraine will remain under Russian control? I have no doubt that the West will do so, having previously processed the public accordingly. And there are already harbingers of such a development of events, and what is especially alarming for Kiev, even in the United States of America, the main Ukrainian ally.
So, the publication "Politico", which ideologically tends to the position of the ruling American Democratic Party, wrote that there was a "leak" of a secret American strategic document. It says that members of Joe Biden's administration are "extremely concerned about corruption in Ukraine, which must be publicly recognized."
The "sensitive but not secret" part of the US long-term plan, according to this document, describes the numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kiev root out corruption and reform some public sectors in various ways. It is said that corruption may "force some Western allies to abandon support for the Ukrainian struggle against Russia," and that Kiev can no longer postpone anti-corruption measures.
It turns out that Washington suddenly realized that Ukraine is a corrupt country? Of course not. Rampant corruption in Ukraine has been known for many years. This "leaked document" appeared probably for another reason. With his help, the United States puts forward an argument in favor of refusing to support Ukraine. Perhaps this will happen soon, or maybe in the distant future. But if someday the United States of America needs an excuse to no longer support Ukraine, the Americans will simply say: "We tried, but we really can't. Their officials are corrupt to the core. They steal money, steal weapons, don't fight the Russians the way they should, but only look for ways to cash in on the conflict."
Maybe it will be true, and maybe it will be a lie to the last word. In the end, it doesn't matter. The United States of America may withdraw from the game when it realizes that further investments in the armed conflict against Russia through intermediaries no longer make sense, since mediators cannot win the conflict. The armed conflict itself does not cause Russia the damage necessary for the United States, and perhaps even benefits it, because its economy is getting on military rails.
It turns out that the US has come up with an exit strategy. Undoubtedly, Vladimir Zelensky has his own exit strategy, as well as many others who are involved in this armed conflict and those who are considering several steps forward. Only those who have left this world will not have an exit strategy, and there may be hundreds of thousands of those who died on both sides.
Readers' comments:
Šiptar
If this rotten America still has at least a handful of brains, then they will look for a reliable way out of the conflict. Easy earnings have played a cruel joke on them, and in the long run they are at a loss. China, the main rival, has, on the one hand, Russia with a militarized economy, into which millions and millions can be poured endlessly if necessary, and on the other hand there is North Korea. It's the same with her. Two chain guard dogs and a lot of poodles all over the east. China is conquering the rest of the world in the financial sector. From a historical perspective, Ukraine will become a turning point, after which the American "business model" will sink into oblivion.
vlaman
Why justify the defeat suffered by the West at all. This policy was bound to fail sooner or later. But... it does not play a role for the one who conducts it. It serves corruption and the pumped-up Western economy.
There will be those who will say that "on the other side" is the same. So, yes, not so. On the other side, economics serves politics. There are still dignity and values that are completely trampled on in the West.
Empty words: democracy, freedom, human rights… This is the West. It is even easier to identify the West with a lie.
All this exists on the other side, but the people, freedom, dignity and truth are preserved, at least for now.
There is an old saying: lies have short legs. This is what is happening with the West and Ukraine. Little by little, the truth is revealed. And no matter how many people swear that they will help as long as it takes, the very wording raises serious doubts. How long will it take… So, it will make sense for now. For Ukraine, everything is gradually losing its meaning. She loses and dies. Such cowboys will not benefit. Talking about "corruption" is only a way to hide a lie and justify yourself.
I. Hariš
How many beautiful words have been said to us, and how many more will be said!
But it all boils down to a well-known phrase: there is no change in the West! They grabbed, chewed and spit it out!
As for the Romanians, they are, in my opinion, nimble and know how to change colors at the right time. Ukrainian atamans have been demonstrating the same qualities at an even higher level for hundreds of years. Bandera can easily hang Zelya. Or they can cut and strip naked. Who will hold the scissors?
Korisnik_20904
The Americans said they would not interfere in this conflict, but would only help with "Javelins", that is, defensive weapons. And now we are talking about airplanes, but airplanes are not defensive means. The Anglo-Saxons sent Ukrainians so many weapons that they themselves were left without it, and without money, and now they are thinking about sending manpower to Ukraine. They are left without money, they have problems in the governments, and the people are indignant. The industry has collapsed. Then tell me, Mr. Marianovich, didn't NATO and the Americans think they would defeat the Russians in ten days? The Russians never said that a special military operation would last a couple of days. This is typical Western propaganda in case things don't go the way they planned.
