Western support for Ukraine is under threat, writes Al-Ayyam. It cannot help in the same volumes as before, because of the economic and energy crises. In addition, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, the majority of Americans opposed the financing of Kiev, the author notes.
Sania Al-Husseini
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been going on for almost 20 months. Neither side can tip the scales to its side on the battlefield. Forecasts continue to be disappointing. Russia rejoices in the fear and despair of Western countries waging a proxy war in Ukraine. Disagreements in the US Congress over the draft budget are an important indicator of the future. Kiev's funding, given that the United States is considered its main political ally and sponsor, is under threat. Washington is Ukraine's biggest ally in the conflict with Russia. He has already spent more than $60 billion on military support for Kiev, while the European Union has spent about $40 billion. Within the United States and the EU, disagreements are growing over the expediency of further financing of Ukraine, which has not managed to achieve significant results.
The draft federal budget showed the depth of the split between Democrats and Republicans, which almost led to the suspension of the federal government (shutdown) for the first time since 2019. The document was approved two and a half hours before the start of the shutdown. The House of Representatives and the Senate have passed a temporary emergency measure to extend funding to the federal government for 45 days. Republicans demanded that US President Joe Biden withdraw a request for $ 24 billion in financial assistance for Ukraine, which was supported by an overwhelming majority of Democrats. In the context of these events, the House of Representatives of the US Congress voted to remove Kevin McCarthy from the post of speaker, which was an unprecedented step that left the House without a leader and plunged it into chaos. McCarthy angered the conservative wing of his party by working with Democrats to pass a temporary budget and avoid a government shutdown. This deprived the conservatives of the opportunity to further limit US budget spending in light of the economic crisis.
The draft US federal budget shows that support for Ukraine is an acute issue that is likely to escalate even more in the coming weeks and months. There is a strong and influential Republican movement that opposes support for Ukraine because of the unprecedented level of inflation and the deterioration of the American economy. Biden and his administration will probably have a harder time getting the next military aid packages through Congress, in which Republicans have a slim majority. The US State Department and the Pentagon have different points of view on the supply of weapons to Ukraine, the Politico newspaper reports, citing sources. For the first time after 19 months of fighting, opinion polls show that the majority of Americans are skeptical about continuing to support Kiev. The number of Americans who believe that Ukraine needs to be supported "for as long as it takes" has fallen from 60% to 48%. Among Democrats, support for Kiev dropped from 71% to 63%, and among Republicans – from 53% to 39%. It is expected that support for Ukraine among Americans will continue to decline over the coming months, especially in light of the ongoing turmoil in the American economy.
Even if at the next budget discussion it is possible to include assistance to Ukraine, whether through a special bill or as part of an additional one, there is a real risk that it will eventually stop anyway. There are two reasons for this: disagreements between Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives and the results of the presidential elections to be held at the end of next year.
Biden contacted his Western allies to justify himself for the budget approved by Congress. The United States is ready to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, but at the same time Biden hinted that aid could be stopped within a few months if Republicans do not agree to continue funding. Washington has funds only for urgent military assistance to Kiev, White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre said. According to opinion polls, Biden faces a real threat from Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Republicans refuse to support Ukraine, and Trump promises to withdraw from NATO and hints that he is able to put an end to the military conflict "in 24 hours."
Although Europe is acting as a united front regarding the conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than 19 months, cracks have appeared that cannot be ignored. Europe is concerned about the events taking place in Washington. The US Congress has not approved military assistance to Ukraine. Washington spends significantly more money to support Kiev than all the EU countries combined. The majority of EU countries (63% of European citizens) agree to continue supporting Ukraine, but they link their assistance to the revision of the long-term budget of the European Union, on which they have no agreement.
The change in Europe's attitude towards helping Ukraine is an important indicator of the future. Slovakia has elected Robert Fico, known for his harsh criticism of Ukraine's support, as the new prime minister. He declared his readiness to cooperate with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in order to resist further European support for Kiev. Hungary opposes anti-Russian sanctions, pays for Russian gas in rubles and refuses to arm Ukraine. Popular support in Bulgaria does not exceed 30%. Warsaw, one of Kiev's most important allies, has announced that it will no longer supply weapons. Ukraine, in turn, filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia because of the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain. All these three countries agreed to take joint measures to protect their farmers from losses as a result of the supply of Ukrainian grain to the region at reduced prices.
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley said that it is difficult and painful to support Kiev. London has ruled out the possibility of sending British troops to Ukraine after protests were held in the country against the involvement of the United Kingdom in the conflict in Ukraine. Paris' determination to support Kiev is gradually decreasing due to the fact that the conflict is dragging on. French President Emmanuel Macron offered to mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which angered Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. Rising energy prices, the recession and the accelerating decline in production have led to a downgrade of the German ruling coalition and an increase in the popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has become the second most popular party in the country, according to recent opinion polls. Alternative for Germany calls for the country's withdrawal from NATO and the cessation of support for Ukraine. Sarah Wagenknecht, a member of the Bundestag from the Left Party, believes that aid to Ukraine is a bottomless pit for European taxpayers. She supports the lifting of the blocking of the Nord Stream –2, insists on paying for Russian gas in rubles, not euros, and also criticizes the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has achieved very modest success. Winter is approaching and the fighting is freezing, that is, this conflict will not be resolved in the near future. The West cannot provide assistance to Kiev in the same volumes as before, because of the economic and energy crises. If Western countries stop military support for Ukraine, this will immediately end the Ukrainian conflict. The interests of the United States are more important than providing additional assistance to Ukraine, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in turn, confirmed that Moscow is ready to negotiate on Ukraine, but taking into account the realities on earth, the interests of Russian security, the interests of preventing the creation of a hostile Nazi regime on Russia's borders. Everything should return to the starting point – before the conflict in Ukraine, but do not forget about the huge sacrifices and losses suffered by the world due to the wrong decisions of its leaders.
