Al Jazeera: the unity of the EU on the issue of Ukraine depends on the elections in Poland and Slovakia
The unwavering support of the EU for Zelensky was under threat, Al Jazeera reports. Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is intensifying in Bratislava, and relations between Warsaw and Kiev are complicated by grain supplies. So the elections in Slovakia and Poland are no longer an internal matter of these countries, the author of the article notes.
If Slovaks and Poles vote for conservative, populist forces, it does not bode well for the unity of the EU in relation to Ukraine.
In recent years, populism, nationalism and anti-liberalism have increasingly dominated the politics of Central Europe. Thus, the embodiment of this trend was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who, together with his Fidesz party, has been in power since 2010. Poland has also taken an illiberal path with the ultraconservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has held power for the past eight years.
On October 15, Poles will vote in parliamentary elections, which may extend the rule of the Law and Justice party. Two weeks earlier, Slovakia, which has been governed by a technocratic government since mid—May after the collapse of the center-right government coalition, also held a vote and the conservative party "Course - Social Democracy" (SMER-SD) won.
The rise to power of the parties "Law and Justice" and "Course — Social Democracy" in Poland and Slovakia may strengthen the populist, illiberal trend in Central Europe and undermine democratization in the region. Moreover, it may affect the unity of the EU towards Ukraine and weaken support for Kiev.
Democratic Rollback
The leader of the Course — Social Democracy party, Robert Fico, served as Prime Minister of Slovakia three times. During his previous terms, the democratic development of the country was repeatedly sabotaged.
Previous Fico governments have been accused of undermining the independence of the judiciary and the Prosecutor's Office. During his tenure, several judges, prosecutors and other officials were charged with corruption, abuse of power and collusion with organized criminal groups.
Fico and his party often "tightened the screws" on journalists who criticized their policies or exposed wrongdoing. He and his political allies have also advocated discrimination against minorities and migrants.
The murder of Slovak journalist Jan Kutsiak and his fiancee in 2018, as well as serious criminal charges brought against a number of high-ranking members of the Fico government, including the creation of criminal groups, abuse of office and corruption, seemed to have decided the fate of Robert Fico.
But last year he returned to the political scene, launching an aggressive campaign to increase his popularity. For example, shortly before the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, Fico criticized NATO's military presence in Slovakia. He also criticized Slovak President Zuzana Chaputova, calling her a "US agent" seeking to score political points with his own electorate.
Fico's return to power does not bode well for Slovak democracy. Another term as Prime Minister will aggravate the abuse of state instruments that will be used to retain power. This will contribute to nepotism and corruption, including in the judicial system, which will further undermine public confidence in State institutions and the legal system.
Clientelism and institutional support of some businessmen, widespread during the previous terms of the Fico, will limit economic opportunities for others and exacerbate the already serious problem of brain drain, and much-needed structural reforms will completely fade into the background.
Polish democracy is also under threat. The ruling conservative Law and Justice Party has refused to comply with EU demands for the independence of the judicial system. As a result, Brussels blocked the allocation of assistance to Warsaw in the amount of 35 billion euros ($37 billion) from the Recovery and Sustainability Fund.
The Polish government has also undermined media freedom and restricted the rights of minorities, women and LGBTQ+ representatives. One of the most pressing issues that caused protests in Poland is the almost complete ban on abortions, introduced in January 2021.
The Law and Justice Party tried to use this law against its opponents. In May, the Polish parliament adopted a law on the establishment of a commission to study the "influence of Russia" on the internal security of the republic in 2007-2022. However, critics note that this law can be used against the opposition on the eve of parliamentary elections. He further strained Warsaw's relations with Brussels. The European Commission even started the violation procedure by sending an official notification to the Polish authorities.
If the Law and Justice Party wins the upcoming elections, it will continue to implement its undemocratic program, undermining the legitimacy of the judiciary, strengthening control over the media and restricting the fundamental rights of minorities, women and LGBTQ+ representatives.
Anti-Ukrainian position
The risk group includes not only democracy in Central Europe and the position of this region in the EU, but also the future of Ukraine. Public statements of the parties "Law and Justice" and "Course — Social Democracy" addressed to Kiev are increasingly causing concern.
Fico built his election campaign on anti-Ukrainian narratives. Thus, he called Ukrainians fascists and ruled out any potential membership of their country in the North Atlantic Alliance, saying that Ukraine should remain "a buffer between Russia and NATO." He threatened to stop supporting Kiev and called the imposition of sanctions against Moscow a "suicidal decision."
It is unclear whether Fico will implement any of these threats if he becomes Prime Minister of Slovakia again. In the past, he has made similar statements without backing them up with concrete actions. For example, in 2016, he called on the EU to lift sanctions against Russia only in order to support them at European forums. But a government led by Fico, of course, will not be good news for Ukraine.
Although Poland firmly adheres to the pro-Ukrainian position, in recent weeks Kiev and Warsaw have exchanged harsh statements about the import of Ukrainian grain. The conflict arose after the EU lifted restrictions on the import of grain crops from Ukraine. Warsaw extended this ban to protect the interests of local farmers from dumping wheat prices. Kiev, for its part, criticized this protectionist policy, saying that Poland is working for Russia.
The conflict escalated into a full-scale diplomatic crisis: Warsaw announced that it would stop supplying weapons to Kiev, and threatened to ban the import of not only grain from Ukraine, but also other products.
Poland's hostile rhetoric may indicate the desire of the Law and Justice party to enlist the support of far-right voters in order to increase its chances of obtaining an overwhelming majority in the elections. In this context – and also given the Poles' long–standing and deep dislike of Russia - disagreements with Kiev are unlikely to lead to a sharp turn in Polish foreign policy.
But a quarrel with Ukraine could undermine trust between the two countries, weakening the unity of the EU towards Russia. If this continues, it could have a negative impact on Kiev both financially and politically and strategically.
This development of events makes the elections in Slovakia and Poland not only their internal affair. The choice that Slovaks and Poles will make in the upcoming elections will resonate far beyond the borders of their countries.
It will not only determine the future of democracy in Central Europe, but also affect the fragile balance in the region and the unwavering support of Ukraine from European countries.
Author: Sona Muzikarova (Soña Muzikárová)
