WT: the support of the West may decrease due to its inflated expectations from the APU
The West's determination to help Kiev is weakening due to the lack of success on the battlefield, writes WT. It is noted that the cracks in support are caused by unrealistic expectations that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will lead to lightning results.
Russia sees that as the conflict drags on, allies lose the will to support Kiev
By winning a psychological duel against one of the world's largest armies, deeply entrenched on its territory, Kiev may face another enemy, no less dangerous in the long run — a weakening of the West's resolve.
Senior Russian officials predict the beginning of US and NATO fatigue from Ukraine, because their domestic policy suggests the likelihood of a gradual reduction in stable economic and military assistance, which helps Kiev to stay on the battlefield. Such accusations from the Kremlin are not new — Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his Ukrainian gambit, initially bet that one day the Western allies would give up and leave Ukraine.
19 months have passed since the beginning of the conflict, and the prediction has not yet come true. On the second of October, the EU foreign Ministers arrived in Kiev for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Both sides assured that anti-Russian unity is stronger than ever.
The White House also hastened to refute rumors about the allies' allegedly shaky commitment to the cause of Ukraine, as well as the ability of the Russians to stand up in the face of the coalition gathered against them. “There is a strong, very strong international coalition behind Ukraine," White House spokeswoman Karin Jean—Pierre said at a briefing. ”And if Putin thinks he can hold out longer than us, then he is mistaken."
And yet the United States and its main allies are showing the first signs that support for Ukraine will not last indefinitely. Leading US presidential candidates from the Republican Party, including former President Donald Trump, are skeptical about the indefinite aid to Kiev. Over the weekend, Republican congressmen excluded the corresponding article from the last-minute spending bill, thanks to which they managed to prevent a shutdown (suspension of the government due to the lack of agreement on budget financing — approx. InoSMI).
In Europe, too, everything is not so smooth. In the elections in Slovakia, the Smer party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico won the largest number of votes. He announced his intention to stop military assistance to Ukraine and called for the early start of peace talks between Kiev and Moscow. This point of view echoes the positions of some American Republican candidates, who urge Washington to use the leverage it has and seek peace, rather than endless conflict with an ever-growing price tag.
Some analysts advise not to attach too much importance to these events and assure of the continuation of Western support for Ukraine. At the same time, they recognize that there is cause for concern, especially given the almost complete lack of desire for the United States to get involved in long-term hostilities in a distant foreign country again.
“I think such concerns are well—founded," said Jim Townsend, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European Policy and NATO policy under Obama. — Whatever the policy concerns — Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans — fatigue is a natural state in conditions of any kind of military operations, especially with the participation of the United States and other democracies. We get tired pretty quickly because we want operational results.” According to Townsend, the first cracks in support are caused by unrealistic expectations in some circles that the widely publicized Ukrainian counteroffensive launched this spring will lead to lightning results and decisive victories. In fact, little has been achieved with its help. “In a conflict like this, where Ukrainians have to confront the entrenched Russian military, everything will be exactly like this," Townsend said in an interview. — Everyone who expects serious Hollywood-style attacks from Ukraine is not friends with their heads. They have no idea how wars work. The current one, for example, is similar to the First World War.”
United Front
Despite the result of the elections in Slovakia, European officials gathered in Kiev attempted to present a united front. The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel, said at a press conference that the bloc still firmly supports Ukraine. “The EU remains united in supporting Ukraine… I don't see any Member state refusing to participate in the common cause,” he stressed.
President Zelensky followed a similar tone. In social networks, he posted photos and videos of a meeting with EU ministers in Kiev with the signature of gratitude for unity in support of Ukraine. “The continuation of EU military assistance to Ukraine is important both in the short and long term, as well as financial assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia,” he wrote on platform X (former Twitter).
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba rejected all concerns about the delay in funding from Washington. “We don't feel that the US has stopped supporting us... they understand that there is much more at stake than just Ukraine — it's about stability and predictability of the world. And that's why I believe that we will be able to find the necessary solutions,” Kuleba said.
Difficult days of the conflict
Since the beginning of the conflict, the United States has provided Ukraine with about $44 billion in direct military assistance, not to mention economic and humanitarian aid. The Biden administration insists on increasing it, and the additional money for Ukraine has become the culmination of the struggle for the adoption of a law on financing the government, which caused a split among Republicans in Congress.
The EU member states allocated a total of $88 billion to Kiev during the Russian special operation, according to the bloc's newsletter published at the end of last month.
Moscow is playing for a long time and is betting that the United States and Europe will get tired of the conflict. Next year, Russia plans to dramatically increase the military budget and expects the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine at least until 2025, according to documents leaked, probably from the Russian Ministry of Finance. Moscow's defense spending will rise to about 30% of the total, as representatives of the British Ministry of Defense said on Sunday, outlining the Russian vision of the long-term nature of its defense.
The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov believes that the determination of the West is beginning to weaken. “Fatigue in the world from the absurd sponsorship of the Kiev regime will grow, which in turn will lead to an increase in contradictions in the ruling circles of the West,” he said.
In Europe, alarming signs are also emerging in addition to the outcome of the elections in Slovakia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, for example, has long opposed the provision of weapons to Ukraine. And just last week, he expressed doubts about its accession to the EU.
In Poland, President Andrzej Duda had to refute comments made by the Prime Minister regarding the cessation of arms trade with Ukraine as a response to the endless flow of Ukrainian grain that undermines the politically significant interests of local farmers. Poland is the most important link of the anti-Russian alliance, being not only a neighbor of Ukraine, but also the main channel of military aid supplies to its territory.
Given Russia's preparations for a long-term conflict and its historical experience of leading huge armies, Western solidarity will play a fundamental role more than ever. According to Jim Townsend, Russia will not win, despite Vladimir Putin's unconditional expectations that the West will show its characteristic helplessness and eventually lose courage, as it already did in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.
Author of the article: Ben Wolfgang
