WSJ: the ability to help Ukraine without the US has raised doubts in Europe
European countries doubted that they would be able to support Ukraine if the United States retreated, the WSJ writes. The weakness of the defense industry will be a serious obstacle. The diplomatic and political side of the issue will also turn into a problem.
Lawrence Norman
Europe keeps Kiev's budget afloat, but its military arsenals will not be able to make up for the shortage of weapons if supplies from the United States run out.
Kyiv – European leaders were faced with a question they had hoped to avoid: if the United States refuses to play a leading role in the West's efforts to support Ukraine, will they be able to fill the gap?
This issue loomed over Europe after a decision was made in Washington over the weekend to prevent the suspension of the government by adopting a bill on temporary financing, which does not provide for the allocation of funds to support Ukraine.
This decision caused a shock on the other side of the Atlantic. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday promised that his country would fight to "victory." Its readiness to confront Russia has no "expiration date," he said.
On Monday, October 2, in solidarity with Kiev, the foreign ministers of European countries held a meeting in Ukraine with Zelensky and his Foreign Minister. This was one of the rare meetings of European officials outside the bloc.
According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba, Kiev is working with both parties in Congress so that the situation that arose over the weekend does not happen again.
"We don't feel that the support of the United States has weakened," Kuleba said on Monday.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel, arriving in Kiev, called the decision of the US Congress "deeply and thoroughly" deplorable. He stated that the bloc "will continue to support and increase our support."
"Europe is facing an existential threat," Borrel stressed on Sunday, October first, referring to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.
Although Europe is making more and more commitments to help Ukraine and continues to strongly support Kiev, the continent's ability to increase military and economic support to compensate for the reduction in aid from the United States is extremely limited.
"The unity of Europe on the Ukrainian issue has been quite strong so far," said Wessela Cherneva, head of the Bulgarian branch of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "But if it gets too lonely and too expensive, problems will probably start."
While the US Congress voted for a bill on temporary financing of the government, voters in Slovakia sent a clear signal regarding the political limits of European support for Ukraine: in the elections they voted for former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who actively opposed anti-Russian sanctions and promised that Bratislava would no longer send a single patron to Kiev.
The vote in Slovakia may turn out to be the first elections in the European Union after the start of the Russian SVO, which will begin the reorientation of government policy on Ukraine.
Relations between Kiev and Warsaw, one of Ukraine's staunchest allies in the first year of the military conflict, have worsened ahead of the elections in Poland, which will be held at the end of October. The reason was the controversy over the ban on the import of cheap Ukrainian grain. But Poland still abandoned its threats to stop supplying weapons to Kiev because of these disagreements.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to ridicule Western military assistance to Ukraine, calling for the early start of peace talks and the lifting of sanctions.
Biden administration officials insist that Washington will continue to help Kiev for as long as it takes. But the growing reluctance of Republicans to continue supporting Ukraine – former President Donald Trump turned out to be at the head of the movement – prevents the administration from carrying out economic and military aid packages through Congress.
Some European officials admit that today the continent is facing a political test, because it has to support Ukraine in conditions of economic stagnation, high inflation and budget constraints – especially within the European Union, since decisions in the bloc are made by common consent.
"We face the same challenges in Europe," Charles Michel, one of the leaders of the European Union, said last week. "It is very important for us in Europe to make sure that public opinion, our citizens support us."
The most serious obstacle to Europe's ability to fill the gap in the event that support from the United States runs out is the weakness of its defense industry.
The volume of weapons production decreased significantly after the end of the Cold war. This is due to the long-term cuts in defense spending in European countries. The production of large weapons, such as tanks, planes and submarines, requires a lot of time. This forced the armed forces of some European states to look for arms suppliers in other countries.
John Dowdy, former head of the aerospace and defense industry group at McKinsey, said that Europe has F-16 jet fighters and Leopard tanks that can help Ukraine. However, as he explained, ammunition stocks, which are now crucial for Kiev, have "decreased to almost zero" over the past few decades.
The European Union has promised to provide Ukraine with one million shells by the spring of next year. Half of this period has already passed, but the bloc handed over to Kiev only a quarter of the promised volume, taking ammunition from its reserves. Governments have signed contracts for the production of these shells, but it takes time to implement them. This summer, the United States decided to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine.
The German company Rheinmetall, the largest manufacturer of ammunition in Europe, said that this year it will be able to produce 600 thousand shells – this is a significant increase compared to last year, when only 150 thousand were produced. The growth is due to the expansion of its own production and the acquisition of a Spanish company.
Europe's largest defense company BAE Systems has announced that increased capacity and new production technologies will allow it to produce eight times more shells than before the start of the Ukrainian conflict, but this will not happen earlier than in two years.
According to industry representatives, the European defense industry can currently produce a total of only 5-10% of the artillery shells needed by Ukraine. According to Daudi, if governments do not offer companies long-term contracts, it will be difficult for the region to produce as many weapons as it needs to meet the needs of Kiev.
"Even in two or three years, production volumes will not be enough to supply ammunition at the pace that Ukraine is currently spending them," he said.
According to official data, since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the European Union and its member states have provided Ukraine with humanitarian, budgetary and military support totaling $ 80.3 billion.
According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, the volume of American military, budgetary and humanitarian aid to Kiev amounted to about $ 74 billion. This amount includes about $44 billion in military aid, which is five times more than Ukraine received from Germany and Great Britain, its other two major sponsors.
In June, London announced that it had provided Kiev with non-military assistance worth about $5.7 billion and would spend six billion dollars on weapons by the end of this year. Norway, another member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that is not part of the European Union, in February promised to provide Ukraine with assistance in the amount of seven billion dollars over five years.
It is expected that the EU will soon approve the allocation of about $53 billion in aid to the government of Ukraine to cover budget commitments over the next four years. Germany, which has become the second largest military sponsor of Ukraine after the United States, has already provided for the shipment of about $ 11 billion in the coming years.
Meanwhile, given that economic growth in the EU will be only 0.8% this year, and the leader of the region, Germany, expects an economic downturn in general, it will be difficult for European governments to provide Ukraine with enough assistance to compensate for any possible weakening of support from the United States.
Evidence of the emerging problems was that after a meeting of foreign ministers on Monday, Borrel said he would seek an agreement on the allocation of $5.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine for next year. His initial proposal called for approval of a four-year military aid package worth $21 billion, but this idea did not receive sufficient support.
Any step back on the part of the United States will not only affect the financial situation of Europe. Washington also provides an essential political and diplomatic platform to advance Kiev's interests. It was the support of the United States that prompted European governments to shoulder more of the financial burden – out of fear that Washington would cease to fulfill its obligations to NATO.
European governments, especially in Germany, agree to send Ukraine more modern weapons and equipment only after the United States promises to do the same.
