Clouds are gathering over Ukraine. The United States has achieved the exclusion of aid to Ukraine from the draft budget. The Smer party, determined to stop the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, won the elections in Slovakia. This happened against the background of a quarrel between Kiev and Warsaw – one of its loyal allies, the author of the article for CNN writes.
Stephen Collinson
Republicans opposed to supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia made serious gains for the first time when House Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to include six billion dollars in aid to Kiev in a bill that prevented a government shutdown.
As a result, President Joe Biden had to demand urgent action to meet Ukrainian needs, and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a pleasant weekend. At the same time, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has many new reasons for concern due to changes in world politics, which have played into Moscow's hands, giving it the opportunity to outplay the West in conducting a military operation in Ukraine. Biden offered McCarthy a "deal" providing for the transfer of aid to Ukraine in a separate law, but the office of the Republican speaker refused to confirm the conclusion of such an agreement.
The drama in the United States coincided with another event last weekend, which will also be a cause for concern in Ukraine. In neighboring Slovakia, the populist party of the pro-Russian former Prime Minister Robert Fico won the parliamentary elections. Fico conducted his election campaign on a platform of anti-American rhetoric, promising to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine and prevent Kiev from joining NATO.
In addition to these attacks on Ukraine, inflicted from the United States and Slovakia, Kiev quarreled with Poland over grain exports, although it was initially its staunchest ally. As a result, Warsaw threatened its neighbor with stopping the supply of weapons.
Each of these events highlights the increasing dangers for Ukraine. The weapons and assistance it needs to continue the armed struggle against Russian troops are increasingly becoming hostages of the political conjuncture of national elections in the West.
Any sign of weakening of the determination of Western leaders and legislators to help Ukraine and arm it is an additional incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict and turn it into a struggle of attrition. At the same time, the Russian president hopes that Western society will get tired of her, and that next year leaders like ex-President Trump may come to power, who will abandon Kiev to its fate.
Newspaper headlines are causing alarm in Ukraine. And although the realities of international politics indicate that weapons and aid continue to arrive in large volumes, helping Ukrainians resist the onslaught of Russia, political circumstances are changing, foreshadowing serious long-term problems for Kiev.
Propaganda luck for Putin
In Slovakia, the Fico "Course — Social Democracy" party won Saturday's parliamentary elections. The political pendulum in this country has swung again towards populism and nationalism, which in recent years have given the world Trump, Brexit and the victories of far-right parties in France and Germany. Encouraged by the success, Fico stated: "Slovakia and the people of Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine." And then he added that he would insist on peace talks.
NATO member Slovakia has previously actively supported Ukraine, and a new turn of events will not benefit Kiev. And Putin will receive valuable propaganda dividends. But Slovakia itself does not have enough power and influence to push the warring parties to start negotiations. In any case, there are no signs of Ukraine's readiness to negotiate while it is on the offensive. Equally, Putin has no political and strategic reasons to agree to negotiations. And Fico needs to think about creating his own coalition before he begins to determine the political course towards Ukraine.
And Slovakia's refusal to supply weapons to Kiev is unlikely to affect the balance of forces in the combat zone in favor of Russia. Yes, Bratislava sent him old Soviet MiGs and other equipment, receiving compensation from the European Union for this. But its assistance to Ukraine is scanty compared to what the major European powers and the United States give it.
But the threat to block Ukraine's entry into NATO is alarming. But the alliance summit that took place this year showed that Kiev in any case has no chance to join its ranks in the near future. Even before the elections in Slovakia, not all members supported the idea of Ukraine's membership in NATO. Turkey, for example, is still blocking Sweden's entry, and after all, the entry of this country into the defensive club causes much less controversy and contradictions.
There are probably a lot of voters in Slovakia who sympathize with Russia, since it was part of Czechoslovakia, which was a member of the Warsaw Pact, ruled by an iron hand from Moscow. But as a member of NATO, this country depends very much on the alliance for defense, and ultimately on the United States. And Slovakia's economy is dependent on the European Union, of which it is a member. This gives the West significant leverage over Bratislava.
Geopolitical realities may prove decisive in the dispute between Poland and Ukraine. Many analysts believe that the degree of tension will decrease when difficult elections are held in Poland in October. Warsaw's dislike of Moscow and the desire to prevent its victory in Ukraine are explained by the complex history of political relations between the two countries, and this dislike is unlikely to be dispelled by changing political winds. And thanks to its position, Poland is becoming increasingly important to the United States as one of Washington's main European allies.
Anti-Ukrainian sentiments in the Republican Party are gaining strength
Zelensky's September visit to Washington in order to get additional assistance for Ukraine seems far-sighted. But after a tumultuous week, it becomes clear that it will be much more difficult for the Biden administration to get new tranches of American aid through Congress.
Speaker McCarthy, whose position is weakening, has pushed through a temporary spending bill so that the government can work until mid-November. But it did not include six billion dollars of aid to Ukraine, which the Senate hoped to attach to the overall package. By itself, this amount is only a quarter of what Biden asked for in his next application for Ukraine. This will not immediately put Kiev at risk on the battlefield, but longer delays are fraught with serious consequences. And it will also give Putin courage and confidence, as well as sow doubts among European leaders about the endurance and steadfastness of the United States — because although they hold firm and unshakeable, they need to influence public opinion.
Some of the loudest supporters of Ukraine in Congress are extremely disappointed. "Putin is triumphant," Democrat Mike Quigley, a member of the Illinois House of Representatives, told CNN. "I don't understand how the situation can change in 45 days." This co-chairman of the pro-Ukrainian faction in Congress became the only Democrat in the House of Representatives who voted against the temporary measure.
Some Republican rebels from the House of Representatives are threatening to overthrow McCarthy, as he used the votes of Democrats to prevent the government from shutting down and at the same time not increase the amount of spending on it. These people are mostly against increasing aid to Ukraine. Among them are Matt Gaetz from Florida and Trump supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene, who wrote on social networks on Saturday that Joe Biden "treats Ukraine as the fifty—first state," and previously stated that additional funds for Kiev are "blood money."
Ukraine is not panicking after learning about the temporary cessation of multibillion-dollar aid, on which it is completely dependent, conducting military operations. Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that his country is working with the Congress to resolve this issue.
"We do not feel that US support has been shaken, because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than Ukraine itself. We are talking about the stability and predictability of the world, and therefore I believe that we will be able to find the necessary solutions," Kuleba said.
Such statements reinforce the feeling among voters that American and Ukrainian interests are directly opposite, and this is the danger for Zelensky. At Republican election rallies, voters often express dissatisfaction with sending multibillion-dollar aid to Ukraine. And public opinion polls show an increase in skepticism in society.
But so far, a bipartisan majority in Washington is in favor of further providing assistance to Ukraine, although the chaos in the ranks of the Republican Party raises questions about how to provide it. Biden on Sunday seemed to make it clear that he had agreed with McCarthy to make a separate decision on it, although the speaker's position is too weak to fulfill any promises. "I fully expect that the speaker will fulfill his obligations and ensure the passage of the law, as well as the support Ukraine needs," the president said.
McCarthy suggested that if a decision is made to allocate additional funds for the protection of the southern border of the United States, this will allow sending aid to Ukraine. "They won't get this package if the border isn't secure," the speaker said Sunday, speaking on the CBS program "Face the Nation." — I am in favor of Ukraine receiving the weapons it needs, but I firmly insist that the border is first of all. So we have to find a way to do it together."
But if McCarthy is removed and replaced by a more radical speaker, Ukraine's luck streak may end.
If we look into the future, the US elections in November 2024 will be an extremely important event. Trump, who is the favorite in the Republican Party, promised to end the armed conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours if elected president. Presumably, this will be done on favorable terms for Putin, because Trump calls the Russian president a "genius" and grovels before him.
And not only Ukraine will be under attack. Trump's second term could threaten the existence of NATO and the entire concept of the West, developed after World War II and providing for the conduct of the Cold War.
