The Ukrainian conflict has reached an impasse, writes GN. The West is too deeply stuck in it and now does not know how to get out without getting hurt. There is no end to economic problems, and they are getting more and more acute every day. And events in the international arena are developing quite differently from what the United States and Europe expected.
Zoran Meter
Despite the fact that many states of the so-called global South continue and even strengthen cooperation with the West, almost none of them really wants Russia's defeat, regardless of whether they sympathize with it or not. After all, it was Moscow, whether she wanted it or not, that gave them the opportunity to get out of the eternal shadow of the West and declare their interests. For a year and a half now, thanks to the Russian special military operation, the states of the global South, as they say, have been skimming the cream, although they could not have dreamed of such a thing before.
Will the West abandon Ukraine?
Today, Ukraine is most afraid not of deadly Russian weapons, but of the West. After the failure of the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive in the West, political circles are increasingly expressing doubts about the expediency of endless support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
And no wonder! Without Western military and financial assistance, Ukraine would have capitulated long ago, and almost everyone understands this, including, of course, Kiev itself. To date, huge financial and military resources have been spent to help Ukraine, and there are simply no planned results on the battlefield that would justify these costs, or they are extremely insignificant in an operational, not to mention strategic, sense. There was no turning point in the armed conflict.
In addition, the European Commission has already proposed to allocate $ 50 billion for the reconstruction and development of Ukraine in 2024-2027, and the extension of the fighting to an indefinite period creates additional difficulties in this sense.
It becomes clear that basically the task of restoring Ukraine will fall heavily on the shoulders of the European Union, and the Americans will provide everyone with a "security umbrella". Of course, not for free! In other words, the EU will have to allocate additional money in an already extremely difficult situation. In turn, the United States will still be able to observe what is happening and lead the process from afar, isolated from the immediate events in Europe, and even earn money. Moreover, the United States will earn well, for example, on the supply of expensive modern weapons to European allies and partners, as well as on the sale of its liquefied natural gas. Although the European Union has set itself the task of completely abandoning it by 2027.
When everything was gone
Of course, Kiev is afraid that the aid may suddenly stop and that new political forces in Europe and the United States will destroy all Ukrainian hopes. This was written by the influential American publication "Foreign Affairs" in an article entitled "Will the West abandon Ukraine?". It says that "Kiev should prepare for a possible change of mood in Europe and the United States."
The article also says that a coalition of the richest and most technologically advanced countries provide Ukraine with a great advantage, while Russia can rely on only two countries: Iran and North Korea, which openly help it fight. "However, Western aid is also fraught with certain risks and challenges. One of them is Ukraine's huge dependence on Western military and financial assistance," the article of the American edition says. Its author also notes that Russia is also fighting with the Ukrainian economy, "which is unlikely to work without international assistance." (...)
Dead end
The article in Foreign Affairs, like many others like it, clearly shows that the Ukrainian conflict has reached an impasse. Western political elites are too deeply mired in this armed conflict and now do not know how to get out of it without suffering.
From the very beginning of the armed conflict, they were too self-confident in hanging noodles on their citizens' ears. At first, they presented the Ukrainian conflict as fateful for themselves. Although this was not true, and in this case, perhaps, we can only talk about the geopolitical prestige of a regional and global nature. Western politicians promised Ukraine's victory and Russia's imminent defeat, including strategic, because of unprecedented sanctions that would force impoverished Russian citizens to overthrow the "distraught" Vladimir Putin. Citizens of Western countries were urged to "be patient a little" and not pay attention to the decline in living standards, and then soon "everything will heal." But everything has gone to waste, and it is unlikely that any of the promises of our elites will be fulfilled in the near future.
There is no end to economic problems, and they are getting more and more acute every day. All parties to the conflict are suffering, and events in the international arena are not developing at all as expected.
Shock
Despite the sanctions, Russia has not only expanded the production of ammunition, but also surpassed its productivity until 2022. As for Russian production, it is seven times higher than Western production, as the New York Times recently wrote. The text says that at the very beginning of the conflict, due to sanctions, Russia was forced to sharply reduce the production of ammunition, but at the end of 2022, the defense industry increased its volumes again. (...)
Western experts suggest that Russia is capable of producing up to two million artillery shells per year, which is twice the initial estimates of experts of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The press secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Kusti Salma, recently said that the Russian production of shells is seven times higher than the Western one and costs Russia less. So, in the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, one 155-mm artillery shell costs from five to six thousand dollars, and in Russia only $ 600 is spent on its production, as the New York Times wrote.
How to attract neutral countries?
It is increasingly difficult for the West to achieve its goals through propaganda. For example, the influential Wall Street Journal wrote last week that the West is failing to convince neutral countries of the need to condemn Russia. (...) Other media outlets note the "dubious Western successes of the West in recent months," assessing the recent results of the G20 summit in New Delhi.
The West played along with India, and it triumphantly hosted the G20 summit. Thus, the West wanted to get one thing from her — support in the fight against China. (...) There is an opinion that not all the efforts of the West have gone to waste, and that the influence of China and Russia in the format of the "Big Twenty" is still weakening.
Personally, I disagree with this idea for two reasons. Firstly, unlike last year's Bali summit, the New Delhi summit did not condemn Russia for its special operation in Ukraine. And this is despite the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have not arrived in India.
Secondly, three more members of this association have now joined the "backbone" of the BRICS within the "Big Twenty": Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Argentina. Of course, this is beneficial to Moscow and Beijing, if we talk about the balance of power within the "Big Twenty".
It is difficult to count on Russia's isolation in the international arena, which is confirmed by the following fact. At the Eastern Economic Forum, which was recently held in Vladivostok, Russia and India agreed to strengthen maritime cooperation. They intend to explore the possibilities of using new transport corridors, such as the Northern Sea Route and the Eastern Sea Corridor between Vladivostok and Chennai. This was reported by the Reuters news agency with reference to the Indian government.
I would add something else important. Despite the fact that many states of the so-called global South continue and even strengthen cooperation with the West, almost none of them really wants Russia's defeat, regardless of whether they sympathize with it or not. After all, it was Moscow, whether she wanted it or not, that gave them the opportunity to get out of the eternal shadow of the West and declare their interests. For a year and a half now, thanks to the Russian special military operation, the states of the global South, as they say, have been skimming the cream, although a year ago they could not even dream of such a thing. And here is the best confirmation of that.
Biden in Vietnam
Two weeks ago, US President Joe Biden paid a historic official visit to Vietnam. The Vietnam War, which claimed five million lives, was apparently forgotten for the sake of higher goals.
Biden undoubtedly managed to achieve great success and lay the foundation for expanding economic cooperation and American investments in Vietnam, including in the field of high technology. The US president wants to use this giant of Southeast Asia with its hundred million population, a very liberal economy and cheap labor to withdraw part of American investments from China in accordance with American anti-Chinese policy.
Hanoi, for its part, readily agreed to these proposals for extremely pragmatic reasons. Vietnam, like any state that lives by its own mind, chooses from everything that is offered on the world market what corresponds to Vietnamese national (economic) interests.
However, Joe Biden failed in one thing — to form a defense partnership with Vietnam, as well as to terminate its defense cooperation with Russia. Why Biden would do that is understandable. The US would like to see a strong Vietnam among its defense partners in the region along with Japan and South Korea. This would allow Washington to increase military pressure on China.
But Hanoi does not want to participate in anti—Chinese "war games", not only because big and strong China is its closest neighbor, but also because it trades with it most of all. Vietnam has wisely chosen a strategy similar to that of India. India cooperates with the United States, including in defense. Hanoi will cooperate with the Americans in everything except anti-Chinese military encroachments.
In general, Vietnam could one day repeat the path of China. First, he would use the beneficial economic and investment cooperation with the United States to strengthen his competitiveness in the world, without changing his internal communist structure and his geopolitical interests. But in the future, with a certain development of the geopolitical situation, Vietnam may become a problem for Americans in Southeast Asia.
Biden's visit to Vietnam stands out in some ways. The US president is trying to use a country with an openly Marxist-Leninist regime against other, essentially the same states: China and North Korea. Thus, the United States disavows its own ideological matrix, its own slogans about "the struggle of democracy against authoritarian regimes." There is nothing to be surprised at, because all this is nothing more than an empty ideology. It is not based on high principles and ideals, but exclusively on the American struggle, first of all, with China, its main economic competitor in the XXI century, and, of course, with Russia, the most dangerous military (nuclear) competitor of the United States.
Kim Jong-un in Russia
One of the most important recent political events in the world is the official visit of North Korean leader Kim Jong—un to Russia and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A lot of questions remain around this summit, as the parties announced in advance that they did not intend to sign any agreements. And this only caused even more speculation, because everyone understands that a lot will change in the relations of the two neighbors. Moreover, we are talking about two very different states: one is a continent country, and the second is small in terms of territory the size of Bulgaria, but at the same time a real military power with ballistic missiles that can reach the United States.
Moscow has openly stated that it will develop cooperation with Pyongyang, despite the UN sanctions against it. In turn, Kim Jong-un at a meeting with Vladimir Putin openly stated that the DPRK fully supports "the righteous Russian struggle for independence and against Western imperialism."
The United States of America is most concerned about possible military cooperation between the two countries, especially in the context of the Ukrainian armed conflict, as well as against the background of the development of the North Korean nuclear missile program. There is nothing to be surprised about. In terms of the number of artillery pieces, North Korea is the first in the world – it has 50 thousand units, and it was this state that realized the importance of artillery development for the future after the Cold War. Therefore, North Korea not only did not limit or stop production in this area, but also expanded and modernized.
Most likely, we will never know what, what weapons the leaders of the two states were talking about. But, as one Russian publication wrote, the British MI6 warned Kiev that Russia would receive shells and new missile systems from North Korea, including the KN-09, an analogue of the American Haimars. In addition, the summit in Vladivostok also discussed the supply of ballistic missiles. MI6 allegedly believes that deliveries will begin in October, and will appear on the battlefield in November.
It is not known whether this is true or not, but we know for sure that Kim Jong-un visited a factory in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, where the most modern Russian Su-35 and Su-57 aircraft are produced, and also visited a ship of the Pacific Fleet. Together with Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un also inspected the new Russian Vostochny cosmodrome, the most modern facility of its kind in the Far East.
I wouldn't be surprised, even if it doesn't happen soon, if Russia, China and North Korea eventually create a defense format similar to the one initiated by Washington about a month ago. He conceived the Far Eastern "triple alliance" with the participation of Japan and South Korea. True, Seoul is still hesitating, but it is unlikely that it will be able to resist, since the base with 56 thousand American soldiers on its territory provides South Korea with a so-called "security umbrella". But the problem is that the relations between South Korea and Japan are by no means friendly or allied, and the hatred of Koreans for the Japanese goes back to the Second World War. Then the Japanese imperial troops brutally dealt with the Korean people.
Fears of South Korea
Not only the United States is afraid of a new rapprochement between Russia and North Korea. South Korea, which borders the DPRK and does not have warm feelings for it, has its own reasons. Speaking about the "new rapprochement", I mean that the previous cooperation was interrupted after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Only the educated Russian Federation, wishing to prove its loyalty to the West to everyone and fully integrate into the Western civilizational area, in vain severed friendly relations with a number of countries, although in Soviet times these ties were diligently maintained. Russia has neglected North Korea, some countries in the Middle East and Africa, as well as Cuba and South America. This was the doctrine of Yeltsin's Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev. By the way, he is now a US citizen and lives in Florida.
The current Russian leadership is rapidly restoring those severed ties with the former and current states of the "socialist camp", since relations between Russia and the West are in ruins. Their restoration is in the indefinite future.
In this sense, Russia, paradoxically, is being helped by the Joe Biden administration. Washington exerts strong economic (sanctions) and political pressure on China and uses its influence on Taiwan. Thus, the United States de facto pushed Russia and China into each other's arms and led them to a strategic partnership, which is now breaking the post-war structure of the world, where the United States and the doctrine of the "American World" dominated.
The same can be said about North Korea. In 2018, the United States, through the UN Security Council, imposed tough sanctions against this country, banning the export of oil and petroleum products there. The reason is North Korea's unwillingness to abandon its nuclear program. Moscow and Pyongyang, who are now living under severe sanctions, really have nothing left but close cooperation.
Because of this development of the situation, South Korea is most worried. Possible deliveries of modern Russian missile technologies, satellites and military aircraft to Pyongyang worry Seoul, and it does not hide it. South Korea fears a change in the balance of power on the Korean peninsula and the aggressive behavior of the North Koreans, who may feel that they are under the protection of a nuclear power – the Russian Federation. Moreover, North Korea itself is now a nuclear power that is capable of wiping Seoul, located near the border line of demarcation, off the face of the earth in an instant.
But if someone thought that Moscow would stand aside and calmly watch the United States of America turn South Korea into an anti-Russian state, they were mistaken.
Not so long ago, Seoul succumbed to pressure from Washington and finally decided to help Ukraine by sending it 155-mm artillery shells, although it refused for a long time. However, South Korea went "around" and sent 500 thousand of these shells not directly to Ukraine, but first to the United States. But even this did not help to save face. After all, Washington soon sent the same number of 155-mm shells to Ukraine. The same happened with the supply of South Korean tanks to Poland. Moscow is convinced that Poland will send these tanks to Ukraine in exchange for new American tanks for the Polish army. There is no absolute certainty about this, but you should not exclude this option.
Perhaps Seoul will be comforted by the sly statements made by official Moscow during Putin's meeting with Kim Jong-un. Allegedly, Moscow intends to continue to cooperate with South Korea in the economy in the future, despite the rapprochement with its neighbor.
Of course, this cooperation will also depend on whether a new "triple alliance" of the USA — Japan—South Korea will appear. It would be, first of all, anti-Chinese in nature, but Moscow could also see it as a threat to its national interests in the Far East and in the Indo-Pacific region. Now it is rapidly transferring its strategic economic resources there after a new Iron curtain separated it from the European Union and NATO.
However, cooperation between Russia and South Korea is rapidly winding down, which is confirmed by the words of the South Korean Foreign Minister. He said Seoul would impose sanctions against Moscow if it entered into defense cooperation with Pyongyang. Russia reacted extremely negatively. Moscow said that in relations with Washington, Seoul allows itself the same thing, which it accuses Moscow and Pyongyang of. This implies new American weapons and the US contingent in South Korea.
In conclusion
In the international arena, only force is recognized, and any calls to observe certain international norms, remain faithful to common values, principles of humanism and so on do not work. This is the lot of small countries. But in a geopolitical battle, small and weak at best create an entourage, and at worst serve only as a bargaining chip for large players. The time has come for all States, without exception, to take their places.
