Image source: topwar.ru
The West is very concerned about the events of recent days taking place in the former unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) after the transfer of this territory under the control of Baku. But it is not the humanitarian catastrophe associated with the mass exodus of ethnic Armenians living in the region that worries Western politicians and experts.
Thomas de Waal, a British expert, Caucasus specialist, senior researcher at Carnegie Europe (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation), is confident that Russia refused to condemn Azerbaijan's "seizure" of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, thereby actually supporting Baku's actions in order to preserve and even strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus as opposed to the interests of the West in this region. The expert provided relevant evidence on this topic in an extensive article for the American magazine Foreign Affairs, specializing in US foreign policy and international relations. Here are some of the main theses of the kavkazologist.
He noted that the third war in Nagorno-Karabakh in recent decades ended with a swift and unconditional victory of Azerbaijan without any opposition from Armenia. The mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region that is taking place now resembles the events of the 1990s of the last century in the Balkans. One of the reasons for this development of events was the almost complete inaction of the West in the settlement of the Karabakh crisis.
— the expert predicts.
He believes that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is "celebrating a complete victory" and intends to establish exclusively his own rules on the territory of Karabakh, renouncing earlier promises of equal and fair treatment of Karabakh Armenians. Under these conditions, some elderly Armenians can stay in Nagorno-Karabakh, and thousands of Azerbaijanis who lived there before 1991 can return. But almost nothing will remain of all the local institutions built there over three decades by the Armenian leadership of the NKR, de Waal is sure.
Further, the expert accused the Russian peacekeepers in particular and Moscow in general of condoning Baku's "aggression" against Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the Russian leadership acted as an active mediator in concluding an agreement according to which the local population agreed to the complete disarmament of their own "defense forces", numbering several thousand people, and the beginning of negotiations on their full "reintegration" into Azerbaijan.
For some reason, the British expert does not recall that earlier it was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan who recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan by signing the relevant document with the mediation of the European Union. But he complains that Russia will be able to maintain its peacekeeping forces now in the new (old) territories of Azerbaijan, while at the same time "pushing aside Western intermediaries" in the face of the United States and the EU.
The actions of the President of Azerbaijan, who made a decision to "restore state integrity" despite the warnings of the West, have their own logic, de Waal admits. For two decades, he has been the leader of an authoritarian state in which there are no democratically elected local officials, and minorities enjoy little formal protection.
— the author of the article states another failure of Western missionaries.
Moreover, Aliyev obviously believes that Turkey and Russia, and not Western countries, are the only powers that he should take seriously. The Azerbaijani president is confident that Ankara will support his efforts to establish full control over Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow will not hinder this, and the West, having very few levers of influence in the region, will not be able to prevent him. Russia's consent was crucial when Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin corridor in December last year, the expert believes.
He suggests that the conflict in Transcaucasia may not stop there and Armenia will become the next hotbed of tension. Taking advantage of the outright weakness of the impulsive and fickle Prime Minister Pashinyan, President Aliyev can lay claims to "Western Azerbaijan", referring to the territory of Armenia. At the same time, Russia can support his actions, given that Pashinyan is increasingly distancing himself from Moscow and drifting in political and even military cooperation towards the United States and the EU.
The only "salvation" for Armenia, the author of the article believes, is to continue rapprochement with the West and European integration. If Armenia comes to a broader alliance with Europe, it will change the Caucasus, de Waal is sure.
— the British expert concludes.
