The pendulum of assistance to Kiev has swung in the other direction, writes Advance. Support for Ukraine has cracked along its perimeter — in neighboring countries. Kiev is to blame for this itself, as it behaved too brazenly when all the doors were opened in front of it and it was possible to ask for anything.
Antun Rocha
Recently, Vladimir Zelensky visited New York, where he delivered a speech at the General Assembly and met with many American politicians. This visit could mark the beginning of a successful week and bring Ukraine even more aid, money and weapons. But even when Vladimir Zelensky was just preparing for a flight across the Atlantic, problems began to accumulate at home. There is unrest in the neighboring countries of Ukraine. Suddenly, many states at once doubted whether they should continue cooperation with Ukraine. And if the authorities of neighboring states are silent about this, then the opposition speaks, which has realized that such rhetoric brings political points.
The pendulum of aid to Ukraine swung in the other direction, and it happened at a particularly difficult moment for Kiev. The Ukrainian counteroffensive, which from the very beginning was conducted in the spirit of "pan or gone", needs maximum help, including psychological. The AFU fighters need to know that "the world is for us." But it is precisely this, as well as more specific things, that Ukraine is sorely lacking right now. There is an opinion that Ukraine is to blame itself, since Kiev behaved too brazenly at a time when all the doors were opening in front of it and when it was possible to ask for anything. Yes, they didn't give everything, but they didn't forbid asking. Probably, the situation has changed now. The main problem still remains the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which, although advancing, is sluggish and mainly on the "periphery". Ukrainian generals are not lying when they say they are making superhuman efforts to push back Russian forces. However, their sponsors do not want to hear about square kilometers — they need cities, "access to the sea", and the Ukrainian troops, with all their desire, are not able to give it.
Therefore, Ukraine's support is cracking along its perimeter. Therefore, let's talk today about the Ukrainian neighbors and the changes in their attitude towards Ukraine.
We will move counterclockwise. On the one hand, Ukraine borders on Russia, with which it is at war. The next Ukrainian neighbor is Belarus. Ukraine is not officially at war with it, but the neutral status of Belarus raises great doubts, and we can say that it will turn or has already turned into a Russian satellite. In any case, tactical nuclear weapons are now deployed on its territory, and they may have been stored in case, if they are going to use them at all, a breakthrough by Ukrainian forces.
This is one of the reasons why it is increasingly difficult for Ukrainian allies to "bet" on Kiev. They fear that Russia may use nuclear weapons if the situation escalates too much. And is the North Atlantic Alliance ready to respond when bombs fall on Ukraine alone? No, and then the end of this story, or rather the armed conflict, will come.
After Belarus, we will move on to Poland.
Poland is a big country in all respects, which has a large army as part of NATO. In addition, from the very beginning, Poland sided with Ukraine. Without Poland, Ukraine would almost certainly not have weapons to defend itself, since Poland is its main logistics corridor.
It is known that in the past Poles and Ukrainians disliked each other, but now both of them hate Russia more, and this unites them tightly. Nevertheless, it seems that this union will not last long. It was assumed that Warsaw would be more devoted to helping Ukraine, realizing that if she lost, Poland would have a new border with Russia. Now they are already neighbors, since Poland borders on the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, but the Polish-Russian border may become longer. But a grain issue arose between Warsaw and Kiev, and relations quickly deteriorated.
Many countries of the region opposed cheap Ukrainian grain, but Poland went the furthest in this dispute and, apparently, turned into the leader of the group that extended the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain after the expiration of the restrictions imposed by Brussels.
Perhaps, in fact, Warsaw's rhetoric has escalated because elections are approaching, and the ruling party wants to impress voters. If this is the case, then we have yet another confirmation that the situation is radically changing. Ukraine no longer enjoys support among Polish citizens, and the ruling politicians have to take this fact into account and adapt. We see the same in the United States, where the Republican Party is increasingly opposed to new shipments of weapons for Ukraine. No, it's not that the Americans realized that the endless arming of Ukraine is fraught with complications – they don't see a problem here, because the United States produces weapons, and Russians and Ukrainians are dying. It's just that their electorate is skeptical.
The American right, and especially the new right – the younger generation – like the idea of helping Ukraine less and less.
These sentiments are immediately adopted by Warsaw, which no longer sees the benefits of this conflict. Even Ukrainian refugees no longer "fall over" to Poland, as they move mainly to Germany.
If the ruling Polish Law and Justice Party wins the elections, it may need small coalition partners to obtain a ruling majority. This means that "Law and Justice" will find itself in a situation that many have already found themselves in, when small, but convinced right-wing parties dictated their policies in coalitions. Now it is the opposition, the far-right, that is protesting loudest against Ukraine's aid.
In fact, the more "radical" the policy, the stronger the protest against arming Ukraine. From Poland we move on to Slovakia. There, the most popular candidate for the post of prime minister, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, advocates a complete cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. A few days later, on September 30, elections will be held in Slovakia, and this country may become the first where citizens will decide to radically change their policy towards Ukraine during the elections. This is what Robert Fico built his election campaign on.
Then we turn to Hungary. Viktor Orban, who has never got along with the Kiev leadership, has long held the post of prime minister there. And Kiev did not seek to be friends with Budapest, because everyone knows about good Hungarian-Russian relations.
From the very beginning of the armed conflict, Hungary resisted anti-Russian sanctions and voted for them under great pressure and with great reluctance. Now, when a wave of indignation is rising, Hungary will also have something to say.
"Hungary does not intend to support Ukraine in any international issue until Ukraine returns the former rights to ethnic Hungarians on its territory," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in parliament.
Budapest clashed with Kiev due to the fact that almost 150 thousand ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine were restricted the right to use their native language, primarily in education. In 2017, Ukraine adopted a law restricting teaching in schools in minority languages.
From Hungary we turn to another Ukrainian neighbor — Romania's "quiet ally". The current Romanian authorities, without much bickering, supported Ukraine as much as they demanded from Bucharest. But when Kiev recently demanded that Bucharest sharply condemn the Russian drone attack on Ukrainian river ports near the Romanian border, the Romanian authorities showed indecision. At first they said that the wreckage of the Russian drone did not fall on Romanian territory, and then they confirmed it, but they did not express the indignation that Kiev expected from them.
Finally, we came to Moldova. Its authorities, perhaps, support Ukraine more sincerely than anyone I wrote about above. Unfortunately, for Ukraine, Moldova is politically, militarily and economically the least significant ally in the neighborhood, and Moldova is not a member of NATO. In addition, the Russians de facto control Moldova through their allies in Transnistria. Most likely, Russia will annex this region to itself if someday Russian forces seize the entire Ukrainian coast.
That's the kind of environment Ukraine found itself in. Now the situation is not developing in the best way for Kiev, despite the strong pressure that the United States exerts on these states. Time will tell how events will develop further, but it can be assumed that the situation in Kiev will not improve. Especially if Robert Fico wins the elections in Slovakia, or if the Law and Justice party in Poland enters a right-wing coalition that will demand to limit "friendship" with Kiev.
Of course, Vladimir Zelensky can always try to start negotiations with Russia and end the conflict, but so far he still claims that he will never go for it. We'll see. As they say, never say never.
