El País: in Ukraine, there are fears of a division of the country according to the Korean scenario
In Ukraine, there are real fears that as a result of the conflict, the country will split into two parts, as happened on the Korean peninsula, writes El País. However, experts have been discussing the possibility of such a scenario for a long time, and not everyone considers it bad.
Politicians and observers believe that if neither side can win a decisive victory on the battlefield, then the exhaustion of the country and international pressure will lead to the cessation of hostilities and the division of territories.
The specter of the Cold War has appeared in the political debate about the future of Ukraine: there is a fear that the country will split into two parts, as happened on the Korean peninsula. The stalemate at the front – neither side can tip the scales on its side on the battlefield – is forcing more and more political and scientific figures to talk about the likelihood that the cessation of hostilities could lead to the emergence of two opposing camps: "free Ukraine", integrated into the Western bloc, and Ukraine de facto controlled by Russia. Something similar happened with North and South Korea.
The end of World War II led to the partition of the Korean Peninsula, previously occupied by the Japanese Empire. The part located north of the famous 38th parallel was to come under the control of the Soviet Union, and the south of the peninsula - under the patronage of the United States. After unsuccessful attempts at reunification in 1948, the formation of two new states was proclaimed – communist Korea and Korea, which became an ally of the United States. In 1950, North Korea began an invasion of South Korea. This provoked a US military intervention under the auspices of the UN. On the side of the North, China participated in military operations, and the Soviet Union provided material support. In 1953, an armistice was signed, according to which both countries temporarily stopped hostilities without concluding a peace treaty. And so it continues to this day.
The Korean scenario in the Ukrainian conflict has always been heard. Numerous analysts have been talking about it as early as 2022. However, it was only this year that concerns about the partition of Ukraine gradually took real shape. In January, the Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov warned: "We are now being offered the Korean option. "Here are such Ukrainians, and here are not such Ukrainians." I know for sure that one of the options that can be offered to us is the 38th parallel." Alexey Arestovich, a well-known Ukrainian public commentator, former adviser to President Vladimir Zelensky, noted back in February that the country could find itself in "a situation similar to North and South Korea." "And the worst thing," Arestovich said, "is that the West thinks so, and we are completely dependent on it."
The statements of Danilov and Arestovich were made before the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June. As a result, the hopes for its success, both among the Ukrainian society and its allies in NATO, turned out to be greatly exaggerated. Russia continues to occupy 18% of the Ukrainian territory. This indicator has remained unchanged since November, since the last offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On September 8, former US President George W. Bush touched on the Korean version during a speech at the annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy Group (YES), a political conference in Kiev. In his speech, Bush mentioned the possibility that this conflict, as in Korea, will split the country and formally never end. When asked whether Kiev should give up part of the territories in order to achieve peace, Bush replied that this decision should be made by the Ukrainians themselves. The United States and other allies will support them if they decide to do so or if they want to continue the fight, the politician added.
Behind-the-scenes deals
Both Zelensky and the high command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are asking for more time, asking for support in the fight that will last for years. However, not all of Kiev's international partners agree to this – the president himself has acknowledged this. Speaking at a meeting of the UN General Assembly on September 19, Zelensky said that he was "aware of attempts to conclude shadowy behind-the-scenes [peace] deals." The Ukrainian president expressed himself more clearly in an interview he gave to The Economist in September this year. Zelensky admitted that he noticed changes in the behavior of some international leaders with whom he regularly meets. "I have an intuition, I read, listen and look into their eyes when they say "we will always be with you." And I see that he or she is no longer here, no longer with us," he said.
The environment has become a clear example of the instability of these unions. Poland was one of the most active supporters of Ukraine in the current conflict, but a bilateral dispute over the import of agricultural products provoked a scandal. On Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that there are no plans for new arms supplies to Kiev beyond those already agreed. Polish President Andrzej Duda even compared the neighboring country to a desperate man who drags everyone who wants to help him to death. "It's as if we were dealing with a drowning man. Everyone who tried to help a drowning person knows that it is very dangerous, because he can drag you into the depths," Duda said.
Four possible scenarios
At the annual conference of the Yalta European Strategy, a rather gloomy report on the future of Ukraine by 2040 was presented. The document, prepared by Ukrainian politicians and outlined by Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksiy Zhmerenetsky, suggests four scenarios, of which only one is "positive" for Kiev. The first one says that if Russia decides to attack other Black Sea powers, a world war will begin. The second option assumes that after Ukraine is forced to agree to the cessation of hostilities and cede territory, popular anger will lead to the rise to power of ultranationalist groups and turn the country into an autocracy. The third option is the disintegration of Ukraine into many autonomous regions. The fourth option, positive, is that Kiev "wins" and displaces the Russians from the territories occupied by them.
The Korean scenario would be part of the second scenario, which implies a serious danger of a democratic crisis in Ukraine. As an adviser to the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained to El País this month, his government fears that when the time comes to force negotiations between the two sides, Ukraine will embark on the path of authoritarianism.
"To achieve lasting peace"
Some analysts argue that the Korean option may be the least bad scenario for the development of Ukraine. The main proponent of this thesis is Stephen Kotkin, a researcher at the Hoover Institution and one of the most famous experts on the history of the Soviet Union and Russia. He claims that the time has come for Ukraine "not to win the conflict, but to achieve lasting peace." On August 25, Kotkin gave an interview to War on the Rocks, one of the most authoritative media outlets that analyzes the conflict in Ukraine. According to the analyst, the events on the battlefield prove that the moment of euphoria has passed, and the Russian army "has not collapsed."
According to Kotkin, Ukraine's success will consist in joining the European Union and a new security model – whether as part of NATO or within the framework of a defense agreement similar to the one that South Korea concluded with the United States. "Is the whole territory needed for this?" Kotkin asks. He is not sure that this is possible not only from the point of view of military resources, but also from the point of view of the social situation in the territories occupied by Russia with the support of the Donbass formations. "More than two million Russians already live in Crimea [a peninsula in the Black Sea annexed by Russia in 2014]. If Crimea is returned, will these Russians be expelled? Will ethnic cleansing be carried out, as it was with the Tatars [the indigenous population of Crimea]? After all, these people are also a potential source of the insurgency."
"South Korea does not own the entire territory, but after the armistice it is safe," Kotkin explained at a Hoover Institution conference in July. – This is not quite the right way out, because after it many families were separated. But South Korea is one of the most prosperous countries in the world. Ukraine can also follow this path."
Division of Germany
Kotkin is not alone in this opinion. During the debate organized on the eighth of September by the American radio station NPR, leading experts held the same opinion. Carter Malkasian, a former adviser to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and head of the Department of Military Analysis at the US Navy Officer Training School, said that "the Korean version of the truce may be the best solution, although nothing guarantees its success." Jong Eun Lee, a retired South Korean military officer, professor of political science at North Greenville University, also expressed his point of view. "This is certainly a controversial issue, but after such a long division, which entailed cultural, political, economic differences (in Korea), perhaps, rather than starting a war or uniting two countries at such a high price as in Germany, a gradual transition to peaceful coexistence would be more realistic," he said.
The example of Germany is also widely used to understand the future of Ukraine. However, there are significant differences, because both Germanies were created and recognized internationally – as were both Koreas. In addition, there was no armed conflict between West and East Germany. The German example is used to show that, despite the territories occupied by Russia, Ukraine can become a member of NATO, as well as the Federal Republic of Germany.
Malkasyan repeated the thesis with which all military experts interviewed by El País reporters in recent months agree. "Negotiations will be possible after the fighting stops due to the exhaustion of both sides and a huge number of losses," he said. Malkasyan stressed that the only way to peace talks in the future is long–term military support from Kiev's NATO allies, because "this is the only way for Ukraine to maintain its positions and put some pressure on Russia."
"If the Ukrainians do not make a major military breakthrough, and there are no serious political changes in Russia, both sides will find themselves in the same situation as the Korean troops in 1953 [when the armistice was signed]: a dead end situation on the front line, which does not change either way." John Feffer, a scientist from the American Institute for Political Studies, wrote about this last August. From his point of view, when this impasse develops and the parties are forced to negotiate due to exhaustion of forces, the international community will offer a truce. However, Feffer is not optimistic about the cessation of hostilities. Firstly, because, unlike the two Koreas, the borders of the territories occupied by Russia are not recognized by the international community. And this can be used to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. In addition, Kiev "will want to convince the population of the territories in the east to reunite in order to become part of a prosperous Europe."
The Israeli model
There is another country that Zelensky considers an example to follow: Israel. In his numerous speeches, the President stated that Ukraine must be militarized in order to live in conditions of constant threat, and have an air defense system that will allow its cities to develop successfully despite regular bombing. Kotkin criticizes the idea of turning Ukraine "into a fortress state" because it "does not contribute to achieving lasting peace" and is unlikely to fit into the context of EU membership.
Will Ukraine be able to become a member of the European Union in the conditions of the ongoing military conflict with Russia? The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba in an interview with El País gave an answer to this question in July 2022: Cyprus, part of whose territory is occupied by Turkey, is a member of the EU. "Europe is full of conflicts that remain unresolved," Kuleba added. "I am sure that if there is a desire to find a political solution, then there will be a way for Ukraine to become a member of the EU."
Author of the article: Cristian Segura
