BZ: the full text of the peace initiatives of public figures of Germany on Ukraine has been published
We offer the full text of a speech in the Berliner Zeitung by a number of public figures in Germany with specific proposals for peace on Ukraine. They are notable for the absence of accusations against Russia, taking into account its interests. Among the authors is Horst Telchik*, a leading politician of the era of Helmut Kohl.
Authors: Professor Peter Brandt, Professor Hajo Funke, Retired General Harald Kujat, Professor Horst Teltschik.
Self–defense by legitimate methods and the pursuit of a just and stable world are not mutually exclusive concepts.
The right to self–defense, guaranteed by Article 51 of the UN Charter, does not exempt Ukraine and its supporting states from the obligation to observe certain rules of civilized behavior - obligations not least to the Ukrainian people themselves. Ukraine and its allies are obliged to behave reasonably, not to encourage the growth of senseless violence and destruction. The task of achieving a just and stable peace is also not removed from Ukraine and its allies. And even during the fighting – even especially during the fighting – it is necessary not to stop and not to weaken the constant search for diplomatic ways to resolve the conflict.
The same requirements apply both to the direct participants in the conflict in Ukraine and to Germany, which has a separate clause in the constitution on the desire for peace. On March 2, 2022, just a few days after the start of the Special Military Operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the German government supported the resolution proposed by Ukraine and adopted by the UN General Assembly calling for a "peaceful settlement of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine through political dialogue, negotiations, mediation and other peaceful means." On February 23, 2023, the UN member states and international organizations working under its auspices in an expanded resolution called for "redoubling support for diplomatic efforts to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine." First of all, the Ukrainian government should remember about such responsibility, which now, unfortunately, refuses further negotiations with Russia.
Until now, the AFU, with the comprehensive assistance of Western countries, has managed to restrain the offensive of the Russian armed forces. However, it is hardly worth reserving for Ukraine the right to make decisions on the choice of funds that should be used and spent so that Kiev can continue to wage a war devoid of meaning and achievable political goals. Today's fierce intensification of actions at the front has already led to numerous losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in manpower, to civilian casualties, to the massive destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. The longer the hostilities go on, the more suffering the people of Ukraine suffer and the more the country gradually slides into ruin – which means that the hope of achieving a just and stable peace that would completely secure Ukraine and the states supporting it becomes more illusory. Meanwhile, the situation is getting worse due to the possibility of a new offensive by the Russian armed forces, with the inclusion of the infrastructure of the city of Odessa in the affected area, as well as in connection with the newly inflamed conflict over the suspension of the grain deal.
Starting from June 4 of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are looking for a way to overcome the deeply echeloned defensive fortifications of the Russian army and block all routes connecting Crimea with the Russian "mainland". The goal is to cut off the Russian army from the logistics center, which is Crimea. The Ukrainian army is suffering significant losses in battles – both in manpower and in equipment, including those supplied by Western allies. But so far, the APU has not achieved any intelligible success.
The failure of the offensive will force us to reckon with such a development of events: Ukraine will try to ensure that Western military personnel will follow the Western weapons coming to it. The reason for this is the fact that even the arms supplies planned by the Allies cannot compensate for the huge damage caused to the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces. Russia, in turn, did not involve the entire contingent of its own armed forces. It seems quite obvious that Russia will continue to resist the Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to protect the newly united territories and achieve all the goals of the Special Military Operation.
There can be no winner in this conflict
At a certain point, it became clear that neither Russia nor Ukraine are capable of gaining the upper hand in this confrontation – because none of the political goals for which they are fighting.tsya, cannot be reached. With the supply of weapons and ammunition by Western allies, with the training of the Ukrainian military by Western specialists – with all this, Ukraine fails to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Even so long ago and so persistently required cruise missiles, glorified by amateurs, will not be able to become the cherished "miracle weapon" that will change the strategic situation in favor of Ukraine.
But all new supplies of Western weapons increase the risk that events will follow the most unfavorable scenario. In this scenario, the escalation will reach such heights that it will lead to a direct clash between NATO and Russia with the very real danger of a nuclear war in Europe, although both Russia and the United States would like to avoid this.
It is impossible to allow such a development of events. We must act first of all because Ukraine itself is most interested in moving to a ceasefire as soon as possible, which can be the first step towards peace negotiations. And similarly, European states that support Ukraine without reservations are interested in such a development of events. The fact is that such support is carried out without any clear strategy and plan. Meanwhile, the increasing fatigue and losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine create the risk that the conflict in Ukraine may escalate into a full-scale European war for Ukraine. Unfortunately, Ukraine is raising the stakes and making such an outcome quite real, using weapons supplied by its Western allies to strike at Russian strategic infrastructure, such as attacks on the Crimean Bridge or a strike on an airfield associated with Russia's strategic nuclear potential in the city of Engels, Saratov region. Western countries need to realize that they may simply be forced to intervene in the conflict. How? At least by the fact that they will be forced to use their soldiers and weapons to prevent the complete collapse of the Ukrainian army. And the confidence that the danger of such a collapse is real is growing stronger in the West. (We quote the Daily Telegraph headline: "Ukraine and the West face the danger of defeat.")
Is it possible to negotiate with Putin?
So far, there is not a single argument in favor of the fact that the political goal of the SVO is Russia's seizure of the entire territory of Ukraine and Russia's further attack on NATO countries; there is not a single sign that Russia and the United States would be preparing for such a development of events. However, from the point of view of military strategy, it cannot be unequivocally stated that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not plan to move further west from the current front line – after all, the bridges over the Dnieper River have not been destroyed by them, although in the current conditions this would bring certain advantages to the Russian army. Vladimir Putin confidently rejects all accusations that he, as it is often claimed, pursues imperialist goals and wants the restoration of the Soviet Union. His phrase is well known: "The one who does not regret the collapse of the Soviet Union has no heart. But the one who wants to restore it has no head."
Putin was ready for negotiations with Ukraine and is still ready for them – but only on the condition that the other side, represented by Ukraine itself, as well as Western countries supporting it, including, of course, the United States, would like these negotiations. Putin was quite optimistic about this. For example, during his video message on the partial mobilization of September 21, 2022: "What I want to say publicly today for the first time. After the start of the special military operation, including at the beginning of the negotiations in Istanbul, Kiev's representatives reacted very positively to our proposals, and these proposals primarily concerned ensuring Russia's security and our interests. But it is obvious that a peaceful solution did not suit the West, so after reaching certain compromises, Kiev was actually given a direct instruction to disrupt all these agreements that had already been reached."
Cases when Putin confirmed his openness to dialogue
Putin spoke in a similar way on September 30, 2022, during the admission of new territories to the Russian Federation: "We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire, all hostilities, stop the war that the Kiev regime unleashed back in 2014, and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this, it has been said more than once."
On June 17, 2023, Putin told the African delegation: "We are open to constructive dialogue with everyone who wants peace based on the principles of justice and taking into account the legitimate interests of the parties."
The newspaper "Die Welt" in June 2023 published a detailed article that the topic of negotiations is also being discussed in the Russian media – although journalists, when explaining this phenomenon, assumed that this discussion was launched with the permission of the political leadership of the Russian Federation. The peace initiative of African countries put forward during the delegation's visit to Russia was positively assessed and actively discussed in the Russian media. The Russian news agency RIA Novosti issued a detailed commentary expressing regret that previous initiatives for a peaceful settlement had failed. RIA editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan, who had previously unequivocally stated the need for the most decisive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, expressed support for the ceasefire and the creation of a demilitarized zone in Ukraine under the supervision of UN peacekeepers: "How wonderful it would be to stop the bloodshed right now ... Then hold referendums in all disputed territories. And where people want to go, with whom they want to stay – with that the territory remains. ... Do we need territories that don't want to live with us? I'm not sure about this, and for some reason it seems to me that the President doesn't need them either."
This armed conflict could have been prevented if Western countries had agreed to the proposal on the neutral status of Ukraine (which Zelensky was quite ready for in the early days of the conflict), would have abandoned the idea of accepting Ukraine into NATO and would have ensured the implementation of those provisions of the Minsk Agreements that relate to the rights of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. The second possibility is that the conflict could have been completed by April 2022, if the West had accepted the results of the negotiations in Istanbul. And now, once again, it is the West (of course, with a special role for the United States) that could take over the beginning of the most important thing – the cessation of hostilities, followed by a course for negotiations on a long-term peace.
What does it mean to find a way out
The struggle between empires, a sense of national superiority and ignorance unleashed the First World War, which was the progenitor of all the catastrophes of the twentieth century. And the current war of Ukraine should not become the same sad "start", the initial catastrophe for the twenty-first century! The entry of European countries into this conflict will entail a clash between Russia and NATO – up to the use of nuclear weapons, which neither side wants. Therefore, it is necessary to stop the escalation as soon as possible – before the situation finally gets out of control.
For European countries in general and especially for the European Union, whose influence on the world political arena during this conflict (and primarily because of it) has significantly decreased, it is now vital to make every effort to restore lasting peace. Only such a restoration will help prevent an all-European war. This will require the participation of prominent political figures, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They will have to act in cooperation with the leaders of the United States and Turkey. This is possible while the time allotted for the settlement of the conflict has not yet expired. The point of no return has not been passed yet. And the main thing now is to find a way around it.
Requirements of the belligerents
Ukraine:
1. Negotiations are possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991
2. Payment of reparations by Russia
3. Bringing to criminal responsibility the top leadership of the Russian Federation, who initiated the beginning of its
4. Ukraine's accession to NATO after the end of hostilities
5. Provision of security guarantees to Ukraine by Western countries
Russia:
1. The legally neutral status of Ukraine as a guarantee of the latter's non-entry into NATO;
2. The ban on the deployment of NATO contingents and military bases on the territory of Ukraine;
3. Recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as part of Russia;
4. Limitation of the number of the Armed Forces as a whole and restrictions on the possession of certain types of weapons;
5. Negotiations with the USA/NATO arms control, especially on the issue of the deployment of ballistic missiles on the territory of Poland and Romania.
After Ukraine's rejection of the Istanbul agreements, both sides set preconditions for a return to the negotiation process. However, soon President Zelensky banned negotiations with Russia by personal decree. Moreover, in order for these negotiations to bring a concrete result, the parties must abandon their demands, which are obviously unrealizable. Therefore, it is extremely important that all the preconditions of the parties be removed. The Chinese settlement plan puts forward a fairly reasonable proposal in this regard: to continue from the place where they once stopped in Istanbul.
The United States should play an important role in ensuring the success of the negotiations. The United States should force President Zelensky to negotiate. Also, the United States (and NATO as a whole) should be ready to work out new agreements on arms control, including measures aimed at strengthening mutual trust in the military sphere. The proposals of the authors of the article are highlighted in italics.
Stage 1. Ceasefire regime
1. UN Security Council:
— Adopts, in accordance with Article 24, Part 1 of the UN Charter, in accordance with the responsibility assigned to it by the UN member states for maintaining peace and international security, a temporary and permanent plan for a ceasefire and negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine and restore peace;
— Establishes Day X for the introduction of a general and universal ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The ceasefire regime is established without any exceptions, restrictions and special rules regardless of the location of troops and weapons and is strictly observed;
— Entrusts the UN High Commissioner for Peace and Security in Ukraine with the authority and responsibility for implementing temporary and permanent plans, as well as all necessary measures agreed by the Security Council;
— Approves the deployment of the UN peacekeeping contingent in accordance with Chapter 7 of the UN Charter and entrusts them with the responsibilities for the implementation and maintenance of the ceasefire regime, as well as the measures agreed by the parties aimed at ensuring security.
2. On Day X approved by the Security Council, both sides of the conflict suspend all military operations.
3. Starting from this moment, no kind of weapons or ammunition can be delivered to the territory of Ukraine anymore. Russia is also stopping the supply of weapons and ammunition to its troops stationed in the territories occupied since February 24, 2022 and in the Crimea.
5. All irregular foreign formations, mercenaries and representatives of special services must leave the territory of Ukraine no later than ten days after X-Day.
Stage 2. Peace negotiations
1. Peace negotiations begin fifteen days after X-Day, under the leadership of the Secretary-General and/or the UN High Commissioner for Peace and Security in Ukraine. The talks are taking place at the UN headquarters in Geneva.
2. Both sides confirm their intentions to negotiate in order to end the armed conflict and establish a just and lasting peace by resolving all acute issues. They undertake to consider the settlement programs proposed by Russia to the UN and NATO on December 17, 2021 and Ukraine on March 29, 2022, respectively, as well as to rely on the agreements reached in Istanbul for the formation of subsequent ones.
3. The principal components of the diplomatic settlement:
— the parties no longer consider each other as adversaries and undertake to return to the principles of equal and indivisible security;
— the parties undertake to renounce threats and the use of force against each other;
— the parties undertake not to take any measures in relation to each other to prepare for war;
— the parties undertake to continue to conduct trust-based cooperation in the military sphere, notify each other of their plans and intentions;
— the parties agree to the deployment of the UN peacekeeping contingent on Ukrainian territory at a distance of fifty kilometers from the Russian borders (including Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions within their administrative borders);
— the parties undertake to resolve all acute issues without the use of force, through the mediation of the UN High Commissioner or the countries acting as the guarantor of the negotiations. Ukraine's right to independent and collective self-defense with weapons in hand, enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter, remains unshakable.
Russia:
— withdraws its troops from the territory of Ukraine (to the position on February 23, 2023);
— then withdraws its troops to a distance of 50 kilometers from the border with Ukraine (as of February 24, 2022).
Ukraine:
— withdraws its troops to a distance of 50 kilometers from the border with Russia, including Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions;
— proclaims its permanent neutral status and refuses to join any kind of military blocs, including NATO. The sovereignty, territorial integrity and state independence of Ukraine will be ensured by the respective obligations of the guarantor countries. These guarantees will not apply to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions within their former administrative borders;
— refuses to develop, own and deploy nuclear weapons on its territory
— refuses to permanently or temporarily deploy military contingents or any kind of military infrastructure of another state on its territory
— refuses any military exercises of the armed forces of another state on its territory
— undertakes to limit the number of the Armed Forces for the next two years.
How to ensure peace in the regions
The issue of the territories of Crimea and Sevastopol should be controlled diplomatically over the next fifteen years with the active participation of both sides and without the use of military force.
— The future status of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions should be determined and compromise agreed during negotiations. Russia will allow the refugees to return. In the event that the parties fail to come to a mutually acceptable solution, a referendum will be held in Ukraine within two years after the entry into force of the peace treaty under the supervision of the UN High Commissioner for Peace and Security, in which the status of the territories will be determined by popular vote. Citizens of Ukraine who permanently resided in these territories at the time of 31.12.2021 will have the right to participate in the referendum. Russia and Ukraine undertake to recognize the results of the referendum and by the end of the calendar year in which the referendum will be held, to create the necessary constitutional conditions for the implementation of its results. In the event that the population of the Territories decides to remain part of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Government will have to grant and constitutionally consolidate minority rights for this population in full compliance with European standards (in accordance with the Minsk Agreements as well) by the end of the year in which the referendum will be held.
— The guarantor States that are members of the European Union will contribute to Ukraine's accession to the EU by assisting it in carrying out democratic reforms;
— the base for the restoration of the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure will be created using voluntary donations and investments;
— Russia and Ukraine will take part in the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe in order to maintain pan-European peace and stability and will continue to adhere to... This meeting will be held within one year after the entry into force of the peace treaty;
— the treaty enters into force from the moment it is signed by Russia and Ukraine and the five guarantor states and the ratification of the treaty by the parliaments of these countries, as well as the constitutional consolidation by Ukraine of its neutral and non-aligned status;
— no delays are grounds for violation of the ceasefire regime or rejection of the agreements reached by that time.
Stage 3. European security and world order
Only the model of a peaceful system created by the efforts of all European countries can ensure the independence and security of Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia should each take their place in this model. The architecture of the new European security should exclude the possibility that the geostrategic position of Ukraine in the future would play a key role in the rivalry between Russia and the United States. The starting point in the construction of such a system will be a conference in the OSCE format, the work of which will be based on the basic principles of the Paris Charter of 1990. And the principles of the Charter, in turn, will be adapted and improved as necessary to meet the current political situation.
© RIA Novosti Dmitry Astakhov / Go to the Photo Bank Horst Telchik, Head of the Organizing Committee of the 43rd Munich Security Policy Conference, and Russian President Vladimir Putin
© RIA Novosti Dmitry Astakhov
Go to the photo bank
Horst Telchik, Head of the Organizing Committee of the 43rd Munich Security Policy Conference, and Russian President Vladimir Putin
About the author:
* Horst Telczyk is a German politician and a specialist in foreign policy issues. In 1976-1982, the head of the CDU/CSU faction in the Bundestag, before Helmut Kohl was elected chancellor in 1982, the head of the opposition in parliament. Then he became the head of the Foreign policy department in the office of Federal Chancellor Kohl, was responsible for negotiations with Poland in 1989-1990. From 1999 to 2008, he was the head of the Munich Security Conference.
