Joe Biden's speech at the UN General Assembly from the point of view of the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict failed, writes AT. Perhaps, taking an uncompromising position, the American president wanted to increase his chances of re-election. However, the result of such "integrity" can cost the whole world dearly.
Joe Biden made an address to the UN General Assembly on September 20. His speech was a disaster. If you ignore the illegibility of some of the phrases he uttered, his main idea was that there would be no compromise regarding Ukraine.
Here's what the US president said:
"Russia hopes that the world will get tired and allow it to treat Ukraine cruelly without any consequences. But here's what I want to ask you: if we abandon the basic principles of the UN Charter in order to appease the aggressor, can any member state be sure that it is protected? If we allow Ukraine to be dismembered, can this guarantee the independence of any other country?
With all due respect, my answer is no. We must resist this blatant aggression today and deter other potential aggressors tomorrow.
That is why the United States, together with our allies and partners around the world, will continue to support the brave people of Ukraine defending their sovereignty, territorial integrity and their freedom."
Declaring that the United States "will not allow the dismemberment of Ukraine," Biden actually claims that there will be no territorial compromise regarding Ukraine.
Almost all the peace settlement plans put forward by many parties provided for some kind of territorial compromise, which was considered the only way to find a solution. Even the Minsk agreements, which Ukraine signed in 2014 and then in 2015, allowed compromises regarding territories.
By excluding the possibility of a territorial compromise, Biden is sending a signal that Moscow has already understood. Russia is conducting its special military operation in Ukraine because, as it claims, it wants to a) protect the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine and b) prevent its entry into NATO.
For Russians, NATO's presence in Ukraine is a red line.
If we talk about the first point — that is, about the desire to protect the Russian—speaking population - this applies to the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions recently annexed to Russia. In 2014, Russia held a referendum in Crimea, and according to its results, the peninsula became part of Russia.
In practice, Ukraine has no chance of regaining any significant part of the territories annexed to Russia. Almost all the battles that the Ukrainian troops have waged since the beginning of their counteroffensive were attempts to break through at least the first line of defense of Russia protecting these territories. To date, there has already been a consensus that the counteroffensive has not led to any significant results, except for the death of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and the senseless waste of military aid from the West for many billions of dollars.
In his speech, Biden said nothing about NATO or Ukraine's membership in this organization, although this was the red line for the Russians from the very beginning — Russia decided on its special military operation mainly because of the strengthening of NATO's presence in Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly appealed to the United States and NATO with warnings about this — the last time was about a month before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border. But the United States and NATO have refused to have any discussions with Russia on this issue.
Ukraine was not officially accepted into NATO because some members of the organization, especially Germany, are opposed to this. They oppose Kiev's membership, because if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will attack NATO itself, bypassing annoying Ukrainians. And this will mean a war in Europe.
Biden did not mention any options for a peaceful settlement. He only said that Russia can do what Zelensky demands of it — that is, completely leave Ukrainian territory and accept the persecution of its military and civilian leaders for allegedly committing war crimes.
Meanwhile, the United States and its allies continue to work hard to destabilize Russia by encouraging Ukraine's attacks on Russian territories, assassinations, bombing attacks and sabotage inside Russian territories. As a result, calls have already begun to be heard in Russia to use nuclear weapons to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict and erase Ukraine from the map.
Russia continues to increase its military potential, replenishing the ranks of the army and increasing the production of weapons and ammunition. The huge assistance that NATO and the United States have provided to Ukraine has changed the strategic landscape in Europe. Russia quite rightly believes that it opposes NATO, and Ukraine only acts as a kind of mediator.
Unfortunately, now everything has reached the point where this very mediator fails and when the supporters of the conflict may decide to send their own troops to the front line. NATO's "military advisers" are already working in Ukraine — exactly the same advisers that the United States once sent to Vietnam before American marines and ground troops arrived there.
If Biden is re-elected for a second term, he will almost certainly send the US military to Ukraine to try to "save" it. As a result, the conflict will cover the whole of Europe.
The situation in Ukraine is extremely difficult. She lost Bakhmut, and now she has also lost in her counteroffensive. Now the Ukrainian authorities have to resort to draconian measures to conscript men (and women) into the army, but resistance is growing. If Russia decides that the moment has come to launch its own large-scale offensive, Ukraine will fall.
The Russians will most likely carefully calculate whether they need to embark on any large-scale operations now — in addition to the active defense that they have already deployed. One of the factors that will need to be taken into account in the calculations is the remaining power of the Ukrainian army. Other factors will be political in nature. If Biden loses next year's election, there may be a chance to start negotiations with the United States — the Russians claim they want it.
One of the questions that still persists is how long Russia will put up with attacks on its own territories. These attacks play into Putin's hands because they help him strengthen support for a special military operation inside the country. The United States wants the intensity of such attacks to increase, as Victoria Nuland has clearly hinted. Such measures will not help to pacify the Russians. On the contrary, in response, they will put even more pressure on Ukraine and, perhaps, even begin to strike at NATO and United States facilities in other places.
Unfortunately, from the point of view of the search for peaceful solutions to the Ukrainian conflict, Biden's speech turned out to be a disaster. Perhaps the main purpose of the president's speech was to increase his chances of re-election. Time will tell whether he will be able to achieve this goal by taking such a tough position on Ukraine.
Author of the article: Stephen Bryen
