The Economist: the West urged Ukraine to prepare for a protracted conflict
Kiev should change tactics and prepare for military action attrition, writes The Economist. As the newspaper notes, Ukraine and its allies are beginning to realize that they are facing a grueling conflict of attrition, for which none of them is ready.
The conflict in Ukraine has repeatedly deceived expectations — and now again. The counteroffensive that began in June was alive with the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and trained in Germany, would recapture enough territory to provide their leaders with a confident position in any further negotiations.
But this plan did not work. With all the efforts near Rabotin, Ukraine occupied less than 0.25% of the territory occupied by Russia. The front line stretching a thousand kilometers has practically not moved. The Ukrainian army can still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks. But judging by the events of the last three months, it would be reckless to rely on it.
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Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are beginning to realize that an exhausting battle of attrition is ahead. President Vladimir Zelensky arrived in Washington this week for talks. “I have to be ready for a long war,” he told The Economist newspaper. Alas, Ukraine is not ready yet — neither are its Western partners. All of them are still focused on the counteroffensive. It's time for them to rethink both Ukraine's military strategy and its economy. Instead of a “victory” followed by restoration, Ukraine should strive for resilience for a protracted confrontation and prosperity in spite of it.
The first of the upcoming recalibrations is military. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted, and many units have lost their best fighters. Despite the mobilization, the AFU lacks manpower for a permanent large-scale counteroffensive. Ukraine needs to use resources rationally and rewrite the rules of the game. New tactics and technologies can transfer the fight to the territory of Russia. Ukrainian companies are already increasing the production of drones. <...>. But don't expect a knockout blow. Russia has also increased the production of drones. However, Ukraine will be able to respond to the Russian bombing — and some of the strikes may even be prevented.
Along with the offensive potential, Ukraine needs to strengthen its resilience. In addition to heavy weapons, it needs maintenance assistance to withstand a long-term struggle: these are mainly routine repairs, reliable artillery supplies and training. Protracted hostilities require, first of all, better air defense. <...> Surprisingly, life in Kiev is in full swing — including thanks to effective protection from continuous air attacks. Other cities deserve the same level of security, so F-16 squadrons and additional missile defense systems are needed.
Economic recalibration is also necessary. This means less Napoleonic plans for further reconstruction and more attention to increasing production and capital expenditures today. The country's economy has “sunk” by a third, and the budget is almost half funded by the West. As a result of a bizarre case of the “Dutch disease” (The strengthening of the real exchange rate of the national currency as a result of a boom in a particular sector of the economy, as a rule, detrimental to the economic development of the country as a whole. The term dates back to the discovery of oil and gas fields in the north of the Netherlands in the 1970s, approx. InoSMI) wartime hryvnia, strengthened, but private investment fell sharply. Since about a million Ukrainians have taken up arms, and millions more have fled the country, there is an acute shortage of labor.
Ukraine's economy should get rid of dependence on external aid and move to attracting investment, even despite the raging conflict. Ukraine has a great potential: from the production of weapons to the processing of agricultural products. The task is to convince local and foreign firms to invest more and lure more Ukrainians back to the quieter western regions.
Strengthening security will contribute to this. The stronger the air defense of Ukraine will be, the less risk that the new plant will blow up. The further it is possible to push back Russian warships, the safer it will be to export through Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. But economic reforms are also needed. Ukraine needs to curb long-standing corruption, giving priority to the purity and impartiality of the judicial system. And further steps are needed to facilitate doing business: from recognition of qualifications obtained by refugees abroad to military insurance for entrepreneurs.
All this requires political will both from Ukraine itself and from its friends in the West. In the long term, the best guarantee of Ukraine's security is membership in NATO. At a minimum, a network of bilateral security guarantees. Equally important is what the European Union can offer: not only money, but also the prospect of membership. It is not easy to maintain a thriving economy under constant shelling — even Israel has never had to face such fighting before. But Ukraine, unlike Israel, sooner or later may join the richest economic bloc in the world. Thus, the roadmap for EU accession (for example, with a ten—year term and clearly defined milestones) will inspire Ukrainians with hope and accelerate economic reforms - just as in the 1990s these same promises stimulated the bulk of Eastern Europe.
New member of the club
For this to come true, Europe needs to change its approach. It has already provided as many weapons as America — and much more financial aid. However, we cannot stop there. If Trump wins in 2024, he may reduce US military support. And even if he loses, Europe will eventually have to shoulder an even greater burden. This, in turn, implies strengthening the defense industry and reforming the decision-making system in the EU in order to absorb new members.
It is hardly possible to think of rates higher than the current ones. Defeat will mean a failed state at the side of the EU. If successful, the union will have a new member with 30 million well-educated citizens, the largest army in Europe and a powerful agricultural and industrial base. Too often, when talking about Ukraine, we are talking about the “end of the conflict.” It's time to put an end to this. Pray for a speedy victory, but prepare for a long struggle — so that Ukraine, no matter what, survives and flourishes.
