Military support from the West allowed Ukraine to gain time in the confrontation with Russia. However, the protracted conflict has complicated the political situation in the United States and Europe, so a critical moment is coming for Kiev, writes the author of the article in Asahi Shimbun.
The general debate at the UN General Assembly, which began on September 19, will become an arena for leaders watching the development of the situation in Ukraine and fighting for control over international public opinion.
The shakiness of public opinion in the United States on the eve of the presidential election
On September 19, during the general debate, US President Joe Biden rose to the podium, watched by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. Stressing such principles of the UN Charter as territorial integrity, he asked: "How can any country that is a member of the UN be sure of its own security if it renounces the basic principles for the sake of concessions to the enemy?" So he called to support Ukraine.
According to the UN Charter, the primary responsibility for world peace lies with the Security Council. However, in the face of Russia's actions, which has the right of veto in the Security Council, the UN's capabilities are limited. Avoiding direct intervention in the conflict, the Biden administration prevented the collapse of Ukraine by providing it with military assistance in cooperation with Britain, Germany, France and other countries.
The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops, which began in June, gradually began to yield results, including the breakthrough of some Russian defensive lines (not confirmed by the data of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — approx. InoSMI). However, progress that would lead to a significant return of territories has not yet occurred.
The American society, exhausted by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is wary of interference in the affairs of other states, which involves the infusion of huge amounts of military aid. The leadership of Biden's Democratic Party consistently demonstrates its unwavering support for Ukraine, but public opinion is noticeably changing.
According to the results of a July CNN poll conducted in the United States, the majority of respondents (55%) said that the US Congress should not approve the allocation of additional funds to Ukraine. In the Republican Party, which constantly criticizes Biden, there are weighty arguments in favor of reducing support for Kiev.
In the elections next year, the fight for the Republican presidential seat will be led by Donald Trump. Other leading candidates also focus on domestic investments and no longer intend to help Ukraine.
Trump said that after becoming president, he would be able to resolve the conflict in 24 hours. In the past, he has repeatedly praised President Putin. If Trump, who also offered to withdraw from NATO, sits in the presidential chair again, he can start negotiations with Russia in such a way as to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions.
For Biden, who is facing an internal crisis, the current speech at the UN was a good opportunity to demonstrate his own strength and preserve the unity of the West on the issue of assistance to Ukraine.
Zelensky will also speak at the UN headquarters for the first time since the start of the Russian special operation. He will appeal to emerging market economies, known as the Global South, to show support.
On September 21, Zelensky will meet with Biden, as well as Republican leaders in Congress. He will ask for further assistance, which includes the approval of an additional budget, which will be discussed in Congress.
Some European countries are against aid
NATO wants to avoid a scenario in which Europe will have to continue to support Ukraine alone without an American ally. "I am confident that strong bipartisan support from the United States will continue in the future," Alliance Secretary General Stoltenberg said in an interview with an American newspaper in May this year.
The US accounts for about two-thirds of all NATO military spending. The Biden administration also played a role in uniting European countries that did not respond to Russia's actions with a united front.
There is a split between Western European countries that do not want to provoke Russia much, and the Baltic States, as well as many Eastern European countries that take a tough stance. In this sense, the US cannot do without leadership.
An EU survey conducted this summer showed that more than 60% were in favor of providing Ukraine with military equipment — the same was observed in March last year. However, economic growth in the major countries — Germany and the UK — has been sluggish, and there are fears that sentiment may change for the worse.
Signs of this are already beginning to show. In Slovakia, a leftist party opposed to military and other aid to Ukraine is leading in opinion polls ahead of the general elections to be held at the end of the month. For Kiev, these changes are a matter of life and death.
In an interview with The Economist magazine, President Zelensky said that he feels a change in the situation in some helping countries. "I have an intuition, I read, hear and see their eyes. They say, “We are with you forever.” But I see that the interlocutor is not here, he is not with us," he said, expressing his disappointment.
Tokyo, which continues to support Ukraine together with the United States and Europe, "provided the APU with Self-Defense Force vehicles and other equipment as a response to the permanent member of the Security Council (Russia), which started this conflict," the official representative of the Japanese government said.
The focus is on whether Japan will take steps to expand assistance in response to requests from the United States, which is experiencing a shortage of ammunition and other supplies due to support for Ukraine.
The authority of the Security Council, the desires of developing countries
"Solutions that are not based on dialogue will not last. We must try to create a space for negotiations," Brazilian President Lula da Silva, a self–proclaimed ally of the developing countries of the Global South, said at the UN General Assembly on September 19.
<...> He opposed anti-Russian sanctions and arms supplies to Ukraine. For developing countries such as Brazil, with a large proportion of the poor population, the continuation of the special operation directly affects their food security, so they seek to expand their influence at a certain distance from the United States and Europe.
In his speech, Lula also said that the Security Council is losing credibility and that its reform is urgently needed. He seeks to reform the UN, while arguing that Brazil, India and other countries should join the Security Council.
China also takes a different position from the United States and Europe on the Ukrainian issue.
Beijing supports Moscow in the confrontation with Washington, but since February this year it has begun to play the role of a mediator in achieving peace, presenting its own peace plan and sending special envoys to European countries. However, support has not been widespread. It is believed that China is playing the role of a mediator to find opportunities for dialogue with Europe.
Author — Rihito Karube
