Azerbaijan has launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh to return this territory under its control. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Yerevan will not fight with Azerbaijan over the disputed region. And although there is a US military contingent in Armenia now, Washington, with which Pashinyan has been flirting lately, will not interfere in the dispute over Karabakh.
On Tuesday, Azerbaijan announced the start of local "anti-terrorist measures" in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the operation is being carried out to prevent provocations in the Karabakh economic region (shelling of positions of the Azerbaijani military), disarmament and withdrawal of the Armenian military, "neutralization of their military infrastructure", ensuring the safety of civilians. The aim of the operation is also stated to be the restoration of the constitutional order of Azerbaijan.
These are the largest military actions since the second Karabakh war in the fall of 2020. Then, as a result of the conflict, Baku regained control of a significant part of the territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The administration of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev promised to continue this operation until the Armenian armed formations surrender, and the illegal regime, according to Baku, should "dissolve itself."
Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan on Foreign Policy Issues, called the neutralization of Armenia's military infrastructure in Karabakh the main goal of Baku. According to him, provocative steps have been taken against Baku in the region. Among the first destroyed targets, as reported by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, was the P-18 "Terek" mobile radar station and ammunition depots.
In response, the Armenian Defense Ministry stated that the situation remains stable on the borders of the country. They stressed that the Armenian armed forces are not present in Nagorno-Karabakh. Thus, the Ministry responded to the Azerbaijani side's claims that Armenian soldiers and military equipment are allegedly located in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Defense Ministry of the unrecognized NKR accused Azerbaijan of violating the ceasefire regime along the entire contact line and launching rocket and artillery strikes on Stepanakert. Despite the fact that Baku announced the strikes with precision weapons exclusively on "legitimate military targets," footage of the destruction in the residential sector of Stepanakert appeared on social networks.
In the afternoon, a protest rally began outside the Armenian government building in Yerevan. Several hundred people chanted anti-government slogans and blamed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the current situation.
Pashinyan himself held an emergency meeting of the Armenian Security Council. In his special address to the people, he stated that the country does not intend to start military operations with Azerbaijan. According to him, the Azerbaijani armed forces are shelling the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in order to establish control over settlements.
The Prime Minister believes that the situation around Karabakh has gradually become more complicated. "We have seen the tension of the situation. And now we see that Azerbaijan has launched a land operation to ethnically purge the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe that, first of all, the Russian peacekeeping forces should take measures. Secondly, we expect measures from the UN Security Council," Pashinyan said.
After the aggravation of the situation, Baku and Yerevan hastened to enlist international support. Thus, the Armenian Prime Minister discussed the situation with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. And Armenia's Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Marukyan said in social networks that the United States should take measures to prevent ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov held a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Yashar Guler, who stated that he supports the operation, and his country will, "as always," be close to the Azerbaijani authorities.
Experts believe that Azerbaijan will quickly complete the operation, because Armenia has nothing to oppose militarily, but Pashinyan is unlikely to lose power.
"Apparently, the conflict will end quickly. Azerbaijan is acting extremely decisively. The Government of the country declares the need to destroy military facilities on the territory of Karabakh. This is a logical step, given that Armenia previously recognized Baku's jurisdiction over this region. Actually, the new owner has started the process of building statehood here," said political analyst Armen Gasparyan.
"Azerbaijan is delighted. Society and politicians are incredibly happy about the realization of long-held hopes. They have been preparing for this day for a long time.
This can be seen even by the reflection of current events in the state media: reports, photographs, videos appear at lightning speed. Everything is done very professionally," the interlocutor notes.
"In Armenia, people are witnessing the collapse of the national idea. For the last hundred years, the history of this country has consisted of natural and political disasters. The only bright ray was the victory in the conflict with Azerbaijan in the 90s. Now this page of the past is also being taken away from the population," the expert emphasizes.
"At the same time, Yerevan does not seem to be set up to oppose Baku militarily. Today, dissatisfied citizens will gather on the square of the capital, but the probability that they will be able to force the current government to resign is extremely small. Pashinyan does not look like a person who is able to get out of such a difficult situation," the political scientist believes.
"At the moment, it is quite difficult to talk about an international reaction. Most likely, the world community will make calls for peace. Sanctions against Baku by Western states and the UN should not be expected. Unfortunately, Brussels and Washington are used to turning a blind eye to aggression in cases where it is convenient for them," Gasparyan points out.
"I note that the United States has not yet made statements on the events in the Caucasus. By and large, they don't care about this region. The main thing is that Russia does not interfere in what is happening, and the national issues of local states, as well as the lives of their population, are of little concern to the White House," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"The Russian Foreign Ministry will take a peacemaking position. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already called on both sides to remain committed to the agreements reached earlier. In addition, she stressed the need to implement the roadmap already outlined," Gasparyan sums up.
"It is important for Azerbaijan, which won the war in 2020 and regained its control over Nagorno-Karabakh, to continue gradually consolidating success, no matter whether it happens within a few days, a month, a year or ten years.
Azerbaijan, together with Turkey, intends to control the region",
– says Vladimir Lepekhin, Director General of the EurAsEC Institute. According to the expert's forecast, Azerbaijan will in every possible way "try to negotiate with Russia, manipulate."
"The main mess is now taking place in Yerevan, because NATO instructors have arrived there. They are not going to ensure peace, their task is to protect Pashinyan. The line is aimed at removing the Russian military base in Gyumri from Armenia, severing relations with the Russian Federation and completely switching to servicing the NATO military," the source believes.
Lepekhin emphasizes that Armenia will not oppose Azerbaijan militarily, primarily because of the weakening economy. "A serious geopolitical game is being played in the region. The uprising starting in Yerevan will be suppressed. Although 90% of the population will take to the streets there, there is no potential for these protests. There is no organized opposition. Yes, there are a lot of dissatisfied people, 60% of the population want to move together with Russia, but there is no opposition leader. Everyone is divided, and Pashinyan is controlled by the British and American embassies, he has a monetary resource," Lepekhin explained.
Andrey Rezchikov,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
