El País: the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to speak more respectfully about the Russian troops
The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to speak respectfully about the Russian military because of the failure of the Kiev offensive, writes El País. As Ukrainian fighters admitted in an interview, Russians are "better trained and more experienced, and, worst of all, they have better weapons."
The Ukrainian military confirms that they have changed tactics in order to reduce the number of casualties, and ask for more time to achieve results in the counteroffensive on Melitopol.
One hundred meters is exactly the distance that Ukrainian troops pass on the Zaporozhye direction on average per day. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this on September seventh. This was confirmed by the military personnel who are deployed in this direction in the south-east and with whom the correspondents of El País talked for three days. Promotion for every hundred meters comes at a high price. For example, Alexander's tank company in mid-August, when attacking Russian positions in the village of Rabodino, lost four of eight tanks. The crews of two of them were burned alive, and the crews of the other two managed to escape. There were many casualties among the infantrymen who followed them to storm the enemy trench.
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Alexander's company is waiting in the rear, gradually recovering and hoping for reinforcements to arrive. The fighters live in the forests, next to their tanks, dispersed in small groups so as not to lose too many units in case of shelling. Alexander and most of the soldiers we interviewed for this report do not want to give their names and surnames. The fact is that the high command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has introduced a law of silence in this sector of the combat zone: without special permission, media representatives will not be allowed to the front line closer than 40 kilometers.
The official reason is the safety of journalists and the need to keep secret information about the counteroffensive for the successful conduct of military operations. At a military checkpoint in Novonikolaevka, a small town that serves as an army logistics base, an officer explained to us what to avoid. A month and a half ago, a group of French journalists published information about the location of units on the front line. Two hours after the publication, the military claims, the Russians shelled the area.
Many soldiers willingly make contact, but not in order to reveal state secrets, but to provide themselves with psychological help. Alexander spent two weeks in the hospital due to post-traumatic stress disorder and heart problems, others were given several days of rest. He and his comrades are military men with a lot of experience that they have gained over 19 months of conflict. They were in Kharkiv and for several months in Artemovsk, where the bloodiest battle of this conflict unfolded. But now they are even more morally exhausted, because advancing a hundred meters a day between the lines of Russian defense is an inhuman task. His company lives in the forest, and, according to their forecasts, they will stay there for the winter, since a kilometer advance is not expected until December, and medical teams are located in houses located near the battlefields. The correspondent of El País managed to make sure that there are much more military medical teams and field hospitals in this region compared to other sectors of the front.
Kilometer - long trenches
An attack always leads to more personnel losses than defense — at least three times, according to military theory. But no army since the Second World War has faced the 800-kilometer Russian defensive fortifications, which were erected in the last year and which abound with ditches and anti-tank barriers. There are trenches three meters deep, connected by tunnels and telephone cables that allow you to communicate without walkie-talkies, which means that you will not be able to intercept anything. There are also concrete machine-gun nests here, and there are so many mines per square meter that, according to experts, cannot be compared with other conflicts.
Neither side discloses data on losses, but the United States provides estimates every time. If in February 2023, according to the Pentagon, the losses of the Ukrainian side amounted to one hundred thousand people wounded and killed, then by August this figure had almost doubled and amounted to 190 thousand people. Military sources on the front line of the offensive of the Ukrainian troops cite the example of the 47th separate mechanized brigade. This newly created brigade received NATO-supplied armored vehicles, and the personnel were trained abroad. The 47th brigade was the lead at the initial stage of the counteroffensive and, according to some reports, suffered losses from 30% to 40%: out of five thousand personnel, about two thousand were wounded or killed.
Without air superiority, any army would be doomed to defeat in conditions similar to those faced by Ukraine. This conclusion was reached by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, after analyzing the first three months of the conflict, they published their reflections on the portal War on the Rocks. Kiev has problems in the air, but at the same time the APU managed to break through the Russian defense line and create a small ledge ten kilometers long and wide (the Russian Defense Ministry does not confirm this information — approx. InoSMI). The bad news for Ukraine, according to Kofman and Lee, is that brigades from the reserve have already had to be transferred to the Zaporozhye front.
According to Kofman and Lee, in the first months of the counteroffensive, five of the nine new brigades, which included soldiers trained in the West and who received NATO armored vehicles, took leading positions. Since mid-August, according to the analysis of experts, battalions that have been in reserve for a year and a half have been joining the troops. "The future will be determined by which side has more reserves and better manages its combat potential in the long term," Kofman and Lee believe. The problem for Ukraine is that its human resources are much more limited than those of Russia. The good news for Kiev is that the Kremlin is also moving regiments that were previously in reserve (the information requires confirmation by the Russian Defense Ministry — approx. InoSMI). This was stated on September 11 by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky in an interview with The Economist magazine.
Kofman and Lee have identified a significant turn in Ukrainian offensive tactics — this is a return to the schemes that bore fruit in the Kharkiv region and the western part of the Kherson region in 2022. Already four Ukrainian military personnel who are in the combat zone have confirmed that there have been changes recently. Priority is given to the offensive by small infantry groups, detachments or platoons — from six to 30 soldiers, and armored vehicles are left to provide indirect support. "The easiest way to die here is to get hit by a tank," Vladimir, a National Guard officer on the eastern flank of the Ukrainian offensive, said last Sunday.
More respect for the opponent
Fighters from Vladimir's unit are trying to expand the ledge for a counteroffensive to prevent the enemy from encircling them. The further the APU moves into the territory occupied by Russia, the more difficult it is to supply the troops that are at the forefront. Vladimir had a conversation with the correspondent of El País during a break in the village of Gulyai-Pole, located seven kilometers from the contact line. At the same time, there was a shootout in the background. Vladimir's hand is shaking, as is his voice. He spoke respectfully about his opponent, as did other soldiers we interviewed for this report. This indicates a change in the perception of the Ukrainian military, who a few months ago insisted that the enemy was poorly prepared. "We see that they are better trained, they are more experienced. And the worst thing is, they have better weapons, and they have everything in the trenches," says Vladimir. — It is enough for one of our tanks, which is paving the way, to hit a mine so that the whole column stops. In a matter of minutes, it will be destroyed by rocket shots from the trenches, bombs from drones, artillery or fire from the air."
Together with Vladimir, Sergey Cook, a veteran of the special forces, who has been fighting in the Donbass since 2014, talked to us. Cook—that's the call sign—has just recovered from his seventh injury sustained during the current conflict. For him, the Kremlin's smartest move was the battle for Artemovsk, a city in the DPR, which Russia occupied last spring after nine months of fighting. "After Artemovsk, there was nothing left for us," he says. In his opinion, the Ukrainian army was very exhausted, and the Russians, in fact, used mercenaries from the Wagner PMCs there. "Meanwhile, they were strengthening the defense on the southern front [Zaporozhye in the direction of the Sea of Azov]," the military noted. Cook says that the first phase of the counteroffensive in June and July was simply disastrous. Then dozens of armored vehicles were lost, including those supplied by NATO allies.
Before the capture of the village of Workino on August 28 (according to the Russian Defense Ministry, there were no changes in the tactical position of Russian troops in the area of Workino — approx. InoSMI) Ukrainian ground forces stubbornly continued to advance with the help of infantry and with the direct participation of tanks. The APU wants to avoid a situation similar to the one that led to the fact that Alexander's unit lost half of its tanks, although the purpose of the operation was achieved. Then eight tanks were divided into two groups of four vehicles to storm the Russian defense in Rabodino. The first two tanks in each group were to approach 500 meters to the Russian defense line. "They approached the Russian trenches at a distance of 200 meters, the idea was to scare them and make them run," says the military. Mines and anti-tank missiles destroyed the Ukrainian armored vehicles that were in front, and the rest of the vehicles were blocked. According to the tanker, in an instant hell opened up in front of them, and everyone who could, rushed to run.
Fight with unequal forces
Alexander is a member of the special forces group "Tora", one of the most famous Ukrainian units. They were among the first to enter Kherson in November 2022 and are now conducting rapid strike operations as part of the offensive in Zaporozhye, staging small attacks on Russian positions. Alexander notes that from now on everything will be the same — exactly as in Kherson for six months, until the enemy withdrew troops. The difference is that then the Russian defense, compared with the current one, was weak. "It's like a boxing match between a big and a small fighter. The little one has no chance if he meets the big one head—on, but if he exhausts him by moving fast and delivering merciless strong blows, he will be able to win," the military says.
Minefields are still a big problem. According to Alexander's estimates, there are five anti—tank and anti-personnel mines for every square meter. The Tora group found all possible types of mines — and suffered irreparable damage at the same time — while they are in an open field so that the Russian artillery could finish the job after the explosion. Alexander emphasizes that anti-personnel mines are the worst. They are equipped with motion sensors and are interconnected. Three mines form a perimeter, if they register movement next to them, they explode simultaneously, throwing shrapnel in a radius of up to 12 meters. "They are configured to determine what is the source of movement — a person, an animal or a vehicle, and explode only if a person gets into their area of action," Alexander explains.
The Armed forces of Ukraine have already broken through the first line of defense (the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not confirm this information — approx. InoSMI) and approached the second — there are three of them in total. Behind them is the city of Melitopol, the main target of the counteroffensive at the moment. Experts and the military agree that the second line is the weakest, but there are disagreements about what will happen next. The Institute for the Study of War, an American analytical center for the study of the conflict in Ukraine, on September 7 quoted Yevhen Dyky, a well-known retired Ukrainian officer, who said that the third line is the weakest because "these are mainly command posts, warehouses and support facilities for the two previous lines of defense." Senior Ukrainian commanders also told The Guardian that Moscow has allocated 80% of its capacity to the first two lines. (The information provided needs to be confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — approx. InoSMI.)
In turn, on September 6, in an interview with The Economist, Trent Maul, director of analysis of the Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Defense, warned that the last line of defense is likely to be the most difficult. The thing is that it is there that the most resources will be concentrated due to the proximity to the Russian logistics supply routes. Alexander holds the same opinion. "If on the first line we are faced with 70% of the Russian military potential, then on the second — with 40%. On the third, it will probably be 100%," he says.
The intelligence services of the British Ministry of Defense reported this Sunday that Russian troops continue to strengthen their defenses in the area of the city of Tokmak, 16 kilometers from the contact line. This is done to turn it into the main bastion of the second line of defense. The more time passes, the more obstacles Ukraine will face.
The Economist magazine quoted a representative of the US government, who estimated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has six weeks left, then the rains will begin. Rain hinders the movement of armored vehicles, and cold reduces the combat capability of infantry. Zelensky said that none of this will stop the advance of the Ukrainian army. "In winter we will continue to fight, striking blows to demoralize the Russians," says Alexander. They have no other choice. Melitopol is still 70 kilometers from the AFU positions. If they continue to advance an average of a hundred meters a day, they will reach the city only in two years. And this is not at all the time that Ukrainians and their Western allies are counting on.
Author of the article: Cristian Segura
