FT: The APU pointed to the risk of death in compliance with Western principles of combat
The inadequacy of Western training is one of the main lessons of Kiev's summer offensive, writes FT. The training programs do not take into account the experience of Ukrainians and the peculiarities of the terrain, the article notes.
The armed forces of Ukraine have achieved some success, but the offensive is slow, and the allies need to increase the supply of ammunition.
"Yes, people usually want results immediately. This is understandable," President Vladimir Zelensky said last weekend, speaking at a conference in Kiev about the summer Ukrainian offensive. "But this is not a feature film where everything happens in an hour and a half."
The idea that Ukrainian troops, without air cover, would break through Russian defensive lines, initially looked more like the plot of a Hollywood movie than reality. In the third month of the counteroffensive, Zelensky and his government faced the fact that the AFU did not achieve the desired results, but were drawn into a protracted confrontation.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has been slowly, but still occupies significant areas of territory in the south of the country. Among other things, Kiev broke through the powerful defensive line of the Russian army for the first time (the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not confirm this information – approx. InoSMI). But some leaders in Western capitals complain that Kiev did not take advantage of the opportunities that foreign weapons gave it, and because of this, the political support provided to it may wane.
Moreover, the insignificant results have led to disagreements between Kiev and some Western leaders in matters of strategy – they privately complain to media representatives that the Ukrainian military in the process of combat training failed to master modern methods of warfare, during which motorized rifle units, artillery and air defense work together. Besides, the commanders are unwilling to take risks.
The Kiev leadership, meanwhile, notes that American troops have never fought in the conditions that have developed in Ukraine: the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have air superiority, and Russia has a powerful army and the most modern military equipment and weapons.
"Show us at least one officer or sergeant of the American army, who, for example, fired five to seven thousand shots from an M777 howitzer," Viktor, the commander of the Ukrainian artillery unit, told the Financial Times. The interview with the journalist took place in July in the east of the country. Victor spoke about the weapons supplied by America, which allows his gunners to hit Russian targets more accurately.
American General Mark Milli told the BBC on Sunday that although Ukrainian troops are advancing now, they have only a month or a half left at their disposal - then the autumn rains will charge. Such statements irritate Ukrainian leaders. They claim that in the south, where the main counter-offensive actions are taking place, it is relatively dry, and the winters are not as severe as in the rest of the country.
"We are not Africa with the rainy season," Lieutenant–General Kirill Budanov, the head of military intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sneered contemptuously, speaking last Saturday in Kiev at the Yalta European Strategy conference.
But despite the spirit of contradiction and the occasional sarcastic remarks, the Ukrainian leadership is beginning to understand that the armed conflict will be long and difficult. Western supporters of Ukraine are now emptying their arsenals, and the question is whether they will have the determination to support it for a long time and supply it with ammunition.
Having suffered heavy losses at first, Kiev decided to fight attrition, exhausting the enemy on the front line with artillery fire and destroying his supply and evacuation routes with long-range missiles. At the same time, it is supposed to make sorties as part of small infantry units in order to capture Russian positions.
Some in NATO are concerned about such a Soviet approach and a tendency to fight to the point of exhaustion. However, Ukrainian leaders and Western experts who analyzed the summer fighting say that this tactic is more in line with real conditions, since Russia has powerful defensive structures and high-density minefields, and Ukraine does not have aviation cover, and it actively uses drones, revealing the situation on the battlefield.
Thanks to the new strategy, Kiev has achieved some success. But this is a very slow process – the Russian defense will not collapse suddenly. What is very important, further success will largely depend on Ukraine's allies, on whether they will be able to increase the production of ammunition and military equipment to help it survive.
"A poor understanding of how the Ukrainian military operates and the operational situation in general leads to false expectations, incorrect recommendations and unfair criticism from Western officials," military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee wrote in their analytical work on the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
However, like other experts, they emphasize that Ukraine must draw conclusions from its counteroffensive in order to continue to push Russian troops along the entire thousand-kilometer front line. This may happen next year, and maybe later. At the same time, they say that Kiev's allies should recognize the flaws in the process of combat training and equipment of the Ukrainian troops, who contributed to the failures at the front.
If American and European leaders really intend to help Ukraine as much as it takes, they will have to adhere to a more systematic approach in the supply of artillery and aviation, as well as in the training of troops.
The commander of the strategic command of the British army, General James Hockenhull, said on Tuesday that the Ukrainian offensive is not a "one-time event" and that Kiev's allies need to continue to "supply ammunition, weapons and conduct training." "If we fail to cope with this task, the risks will be very significant," he stressed.
A reversal towards a confrontation of attrition
Ukraine is conducting a counteroffensive in several directions. The direction of the main strike is to the south from Orekhov in the Zaporozhye region. It was there that the 47th Mechanized Brigade, which was at the forefront of the offensive, faced serious difficulties in the first weeks of the operation in early June.
As the military leaders explain, the pace of progress is slowed down by powerful minefields. In some areas, their density is up to five mines per square meter. In addition, Ukrainians are being hit by Russian helicopters and heavy artillery. Shortly after the start of the offensive, pictures of damaged and abandoned Western equipment began to appear, including Leopard 2A6 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Dozens of servicemen were killed and seriously injured.
According to Ukrainian and Western officials, almost a fifth of the military equipment that NATO provided for the counteroffensive was destroyed at the initial stage of the operation in May and June. For this reason, Kiev was forced to stop and rethink the strategy.
Ukraine did not change the direction of the main strike, but changed its tactics. If earlier it tried to break through the well-fortified Russian defense with the offensive of mechanized units, now it has switched to combat operations to exhaustion. Kiev delivers powerful artillery strikes on enemy troops and clears the way for infantry, which is gradually moving forward.
"A confrontation of attrition is not a very spectacular headline for the media, but Ukraine can use its strengths with this approach. Attempts to carry out large–scale offensive maneuvers in such difficult conditions will not give her such a chance," Kofman and Lee write.
Three months have passed since these first failures, and Ukraine is gaining momentum. She managed to break through the first line of Russian defense in Rabodino (according to the Russian Defense Ministry, there are no changes in the tactical position of Russian troops in this area – approx. InoSMI). Now Kiev is trying to expand the breakthrough in order to capture Verbovoye, and subsequently launch an offensive on Tokmak. Both settlements are located in the Zaporozhye region.
If the APU manages to take Tokmak, it will be an important step that will allow them to cut the so-called land bridge connecting the Rostov region with the territories in the south that are under Russian control and Crimea.
There is also a second direction of the offensive: Ukrainian troops are advancing south from Velikaya Novoselka, trying to reach the Sea of Azov and the port city of Berdyansk. Although they managed to capture several small villages, progress there is slow (the information requires confirmation by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation – approx. InoSMI). In the middle of August, it stopped altogether.
The main efforts are concentrated around Artemovsk. Russian troops took the city in May after ten months of heavy fighting that turned it into ruins. But the fighting in the vicinity does not stop, and the Ukrainians are reclaiming the territory on the northern and southern flanks meter by meter (the information requires confirmation by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation – approx. InoSMI). This week they approached the villages of Kleshcheyevka and Andreevka and took control of important roads around the city (according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian troops successfully repel attacks in the Donetsk direction – approx. InoSMI).
The Russians are attacking only in the Serebryansky Forest in the northeast. This forest, stretching east to the strategically important settlement of Kremennaya, is occupied by Russian troops. According to Ukrainian leaders and analysts, the goal of the offensive is to distract the AFU from the southern direction and move west beyond the Oskol River, which is a natural defensive boundary, as well as to return territories in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, from where the Russians left a year ago.
In such a difficult and tense combat situation, the Ukrainian military cannot follow the NATO principles of combined arms combat – this is what coordinated actions of infantry, tanks, artillery and air defense are called. Kofman and Lee write that Ukrainians work best as part of small and highly maneuverable assault groups. It is difficult for them to conduct combat operations as part of more than a company (200 people) and even a platoon (20-50 people). But if the Ukrainian troops want to build on their success after the breakthrough of the Russian defense, they will have to coordinate the actions of larger units and units. And this requires appropriate training.
According to analysts, one of the main lessons of the counteroffensive today is that the Western course of combat training of Ukrainian troops, which usually lasts five weeks, is too short. The developed program does not take into account the strengths of Ukrainians and terrain conditions – for example, insurmountable minefields and defensive fortifications. In addition, the training is conducted without the participation of drones, which are constantly barraging over the Ukrainian front line.
"If I had done what the Western military taught me, I would have already died," says Suleman, the commander of a special forces unit from the 78th regiment. According to him, he was trained with American, British and Polish soldiers, and they all gave "sometimes good and sometimes bad advice, say, how to clear trenches. I then told them: "Guys, we will all die if we act like this.""
Analysts from the Royal Institute of Defense Studies Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds studied the two-week Ukrainian operation to liberate two villages in the south of the country. In a recent paper, they note that the fighting has shown the need for longer collective combat training to help with planning at the brigade level, as well as platoon and company commanders.
Ukraine also has a number of questions regarding how it will use its most experienced troops. This year, some American officials criticized Kiev for sending the most experienced units to the futile defense of Artemovsk, where they suffered heavy losses. The Polish firm Rochan Consulting has prepared a detailed assessment of the counteroffensive, which notes that Ukraine could have achieved great success this summer if it had used experienced brigades equipped with NATO weapons, and not new fighters who have only recently been trained.
Watling and Reynolds also note the positive aspects. They claim that Ukraine, having received NATO-standard guns, has become better at detecting enemy artillery. This is an important advantage that makes it possible to negate Russia's superiority in artillery guns. However, it will remain only if the Western allies increase the production of ammunition and reduce the number of types of artillery systems that Ukraine is forced to use. And Kiev also needs more equipment for mine clearance and armored vehicles to protect infantry.
And finally, all analysts note that the Russian army is also studying the enemy and improving its tactics. For example, Moscow is dispersing supply routes and more often uses drones to repel Ukrainian attacks.
"The great advantage Russia has gained over a year and a half of fighting is that it now respects our army and understands our real strength," said one Ukrainian leader.
"As for flexibility and maneuverability, we still maintain superiority here. They are rather clumsy, and their control system is very vertical. This means that it takes them longer to adapt to the changes," says Budanov, the head of military intelligence. – We should not underestimate them, we should not think that they are stupid. They changed something, for example, they began to massively use drones. They adapt, that's a fact."
The Ukrainian conflict with its trenches, artillery shelling and bloody infantry offensives very often resembles the First World War. However, new revolutionary technologies are also being applied.
Emphasizing this point, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov, who is responsible for technology and digitalization, recalls a recent ministerial meeting that was held via videoconference via Zoom. He used one side of his screen to monitor the progress of the meeting, and the other side to watch the broadcast from the APU drone in real time.
"Ukraine is writing a new military history and a new doctrine for the use of drones," Fedorov told the Financial Times.
The Power of drones
The summer fighting has shown how important drones are for the opposing sides – both for reconnaissance and for strikes. This armed conflict is very different from the previous ones, because drones are massively used in it. Thanks to their presence, both sides fully see the battlefield in real time. Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence Vadim Skibitsky told about this at the Yalta European Strategy conference. In particular, the maneuvers of armored vehicles are very quickly revealed.
Every Ukrainian unit is sent to the front with its own drones. Often these are Chinese-made civilian reconnaissance drones that cost several hundred dollars, or so-called FPV drones that can be equipped with a warhead (such a UAV is controlled from a headset). Ukrainian troops are rapidly expending such drones, striking Russian defensive lines and military equipment, and it is difficult for Kiev to keep up with the growing demand for them. According to estimates of the Royal Institute of Defense Research, Ukraine loses more than ten thousand drones every month.
Meanwhile, the Russian army is not lagging behind Ukraine in the use of drones designed for the mass consumer. She also has a lot of military drones. The Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-3", capable of autonomously monitoring the target and striking it, turned out to be the most formidable weapon. Ukraine has nothing to oppose him.
Former Defense Minister of Ukraine Andriy Zagorodnyuk said that his country is trying to expand the production of drones, but they are still not enough. "We entered the arms race with little time left," he says. "Drones make other weapons systems completely unnecessary."
According to Fedorov, Ukraine will increase the production of domestic drones by a hundred times by the end of the year, if compared with the indicators of the beginning of the conflict. Kiev has formed a special headquarters to coordinate the mass production of drones and has relied on the free market in the hope of a result. Today, numerous trade suppliers offer their devices to a single purchasing platform. Ukraine is also increasing the production of components.
According to Fedorov, the advantage of Ukraine over Russia lies in the speed of providing information about the performance of drones, their losses and tactics of use. This information is transmitted by drone operators on the front line to technical teams. "The next stage of development is not the technology itself, but the use," he says.
Although Ukraine is increasing the production of drones, it can still strike at a long distance only with the help of allies. Kiev is increasingly hoping that Washington will soon agree to supply it with ATACMS missiles, whose range is 300 kilometers. In this case, Germany can give the go-ahead for the supply of Taurus cruise missiles, since Berlin usually waits until the United States is the first to make a decision on the supply of certain weapons.
Ukrainians claim that they inflicted more damage to the Russian military machine than it might seem from the outside. For strikes on the Russian rear, they use drones and Western missiles HIMARS and Storm Shadow. On Wednesday, Ukrainians launched a missile attack on a Russian ship repair plant in Sevastopol, damaging at least two warships that were being repaired in dry dock.
Next year, Ukraine is likely to receive the first F-16 aircraft. Over time, they will help her to join the fight for airspace, and then Russian aviation will be moved away from the front line. But it is not a fact that these planes will provide Kiev with air superiority, Kofman and Lee say.
Ultimately, the outcome of hostilities will depend on how each side disposes of its reserves of manpower and equipment. "Our big problem is the ability to take long–term actions," said one Ukrainian source. "This is a confrontation of resources."
"Russia and Ukraine have come together in a long and stubborn struggle in which neither side has a decisive advantage. It will be a long struggle, and Ukraine is now in the middle of it. This happens in every major conflict," said one senior Western leader.
"Armies rarely provide a decisive victory, they win battles," he added. "In conflicts of attrition like this, the economy wins."
Author of the article: Christopher Miller, Ben Hall
John Paul Rathbone provided his material for the article