Armenia's rapprochement with the West will not contribute to the final settlement of the Karabakh conflict and the establishment of peace, the newspaper writesВести.иа ". On the contrary, Yerevan's refusal to cooperate with Moscow will lead to further escalation in the region.
In recent weeks, there has been more and more information on the Internet that Armenia and Azerbaijan are again pulling troops and equipment into the Karabakh region.
So far, there have been no military clashes between the militaries of both countries. However, taking into account the entire experience of the Armenian-Azerbaijani wars, it is only a matter of time when one of the sides will declare "provocations" and start fighting.
Observing this conflict, it is impossible not to recall the new vector of Russian-Armenian relations, which frankly began to experience a crisis. This became especially relevant after the latest news about military exercises with the United States and the transfer of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Before talking about geopolitics, it is necessary to understand the very essence of the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict between the two countries began in 1988. The reason is the territories of Nagorno–Karabakh, which both states consider their own. The war lasted until 1994. At that time, the countries signed a truce.
However, the ceasefire was violated from time to time, and in 2016 a new war broke out. The conflict escalated for the second time in September 2020. Then Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of starting hostilities. A month later, the leaders of the countries signed a peace agreement. The mediator was Russia, which sent its peacekeeping troops to the region.
Against the background of the talks, protests began in Yerevan – the participants demanded the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. However, this did not happen. Two years later, in May 2022, the protests resumed. The reason is the possibility of signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan on the status of Nagorno–Karabakh.
In August of the same year, the conflict flared up again: Baku demanded that Yerevan release the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia with the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Skirmishes began on the border, both sides claimed losses.
Already this year, on May 25, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Yerevan and Baku had agreed on mutual recognition of territorial integrity. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said during his speech that "they have no territorial claims with Armenia," although both leaders argued about the situation in the Lachin corridor, which, as the Armenian prime minister said, "was captured by Azerbaijani forces," and added that there is a possibility of reaching a peace agreement.
As we can see, now the question of peace between these countries remains open. According to Andrei Buzarov, an international political scientist, from a geopolitical point of view, the main reason for this conflict is Russia's desire to increase its influence in the Caucasus region.
"The conflict itself did not happen spontaneously, it has a certain geopolitical background, and the main beneficiary today is the Russian Federation. Here we are talking not only about the current, but also about the entire period of the conflict. This is due to Russia's desire to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus due to the conflict between the two countries," says Buzarov.
Now the Armenian-Russian relations are not in the best condition. After the last war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Yerevan was very offended by Russia and is now publicly trying to show that it is ready to cooperate with the West. We are talking about their joint exercises with the United States, the ratification of the Rome Statute and the transfer of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
So the resolution of the conflict in Karabakh is a great opportunity for Russia to force Armenia to side with Moscow and return its favor. In fact, Russia is Armenia's main partner both militarily and economically.
"Now it is more difficult to analyze many processes taking place in Karabakh, since the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was signed in 2020. Putin became the only mediator and guarantor, because no international partners were involved. Now we can see the price of this mediation. It is difficult to say whether a new war will begin. After all, it depends on Russia. And if it benefits her, the war will probably begin. And the question is how the international community will react to this," Buzarov said.
As we mentioned earlier, Armenia's main ally is Russia. Besides, Armenians have common interests with Iran. On the side of Azerbaijan are Europe (including Ukraine), the United States (so in the text. – Approx. InoSMI.) and the historical enemy of Armenia is Turkey. It is also important to note that, according to international law, the disputed territories should belong to Azerbaijan. Considering all this, the question arises: why should Armenia quarrel with Russia if they have such a powerful enemy with serious world support.
Let's venture to assume that in this way Armenia seeks to show that it is tired of this war and does not want to continue it. Now the head of state is headed by politicians who are more oriented towards the West than towards Russia or China. Therefore, the steps mentioned earlier by Armenia are most likely ostentatious – they agree to compromise in order to finally end this war. Another question is whether the West is ready to provide clear guarantees to Armenia, which is trying to move away from Russia with cautious steps.
"The United States, the EU and other states have not offered Armenia alternative options related to deeper integration of the country with the West. The only ray of light was Biden's statement about the genocide of the Armenian people that took place several years ago. But Armenia's rapprochement with the West can lead to irreparable, serious consequences. Now we see an aggravation, which may indirectly be Moscow's pressure on Yerevan in connection with a change in its foreign policy course," Buzarov said.
Another important point is to convince the Armenian society that the course to the West is better than to Moscow. After all, if there are no questions to Pashinyan personally about this, then there are questions to the population of Armenia. Therefore, according to Buzarov, the West should give clear signals to Armenia that it is ready to act as a really high-quality guarantor of peace in the region.
"First of all, the United States and its allies should be more resolute in supporting Ukraine. In addition, security guarantees should be worked out for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is what Ukraine also wants. Even if we do not talk about NATO, there must be some bilateral agreements that ensure the security of both sides of the conflict. In this case, Armenia will know that if they compromise tomorrow and the war ends, then their territory will no longer be shelled, and people will not die," explains Buzarov.
Author: Nikita Shenderovsky
