Politico: after accusations of "soft-heartedness" Macron took a tough stance on Ukraine
Macron almost provoked the anger of the "deep West" when he spoke about peace and taking into account Russia's interests at the beginning of his campaign, writes Politico. But under pressure from external forces, Macron "corrected himself": now he is for EU enlargement and for Ukraine in NATO.
The French president missed the chance to speak in the style of Churchill at the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, but now he has swung towards the fighters for Ukraine's admission to NATO and the EU.
PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron missed the "Ukrainian train".
When Russia began to concentrate its troops on the border with Ukraine, and then began military operations against the neighboring country, Macron dived into the rabbit hole and began fruitless negotiations with Vladimir Putin. At the moment when he had the opportunity to take the helm of Europe and lead it, he made a miscalculation and failed to take the political initiative.
Instead, the eurosceptic British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who became a leader in this matter, undertook to rally Europe in support of President Vladimir Zelensky and supply him with weapons. Johnson is considered a hero in Kiev, but Macron angered Ukrainians with his statements that Putin should not be humiliated, and Moscow should be provided with some kind of "security guarantees". The French president claimed that "most likely, decades will pass" before Ukraine becomes a member of the EU.
But since then, many changes have taken place in Paris. Now the French president has donned the mantle of one of Ukraine's staunchest allies, promising her support "until victory" and taking on the role of a leader in issues such as the country's membership in NATO and providing military assistance to it. He did this at a time when Europeans are worried, suspecting that American support is weakening, and increasingly worried that if Trump wins the presidential election, Ukraine will lose its most important ally.
"Macron [at the beginning of the conflict] was fixated on the idea of becoming an intermediary between Putin and Zelensky. That is why he was extremely cautious about the issue of arms supplies," said a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (International Institute for Strategic Studies). Francois Heisbourg. – But at the beginning of this year, Macron finally realized that Putin was just using him. And after that, interest in negotiations was lost."
However, French diplomats limit themselves to statements that their president simply "clarified" his position on Ukraine.
Where the French have significantly moved away from their previous long-term position is on the issue of EU enlargement. Having previously opposed enlargement (especially Turkey's admission to the EU), France is now looking for new allies, wants to lead the expansion process and is losing possible options for the functioning of an expanded European Union. There is a lot of diplomatic activity going on behind closed doors in Paris and beyond. The French government is holding consultations and checking red lines ahead of an important speech that Macron is due to deliver early next year. In it, he will outline his ideas for expansion. Some French leaders are already calling this speech the "Sorbonne encore", recalling Macron's speech at the Sorbonne University in 2017 on the topic of European politics.
A change in beliefs
For several months after the start of a full-scale Russian military operation in Ukraine, the French president made zigzag movements, not knowing what to do with Russia. He tried to understand Putin's personality and read his character. Giving an interview to the Economist in 2019, Macron painted the following picture. A logical Putin will eventually come to understand that he needs to work in partnership with Europe. This was a very complementary view of Putin's mindset, which arose from Macron's underestimation of what a huge role the Ukrainian issue had for the Russian ruler, which clearly caused the Russian leader aching pain.
In December last year, it became obvious that Macron began to change his point of view. He made an assertive speech, saying that he would support Ukraine "until victory," although just a couple of weeks before he had stated that the West should "simultaneously" provide Moscow with "security guarantees."
In May of this year, Macron hinted at his new perception of the situation, telling central and eastern Europeans in Bratislava that France sometimes "missed opportunities" to understand them. I mean, in vain France did not listen to their memories of the atrocities of the Soviets.
In the same month, France allowed Britain to send French-British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, after which it delivered French long-range SCALP-EG missiles itself. According to Heisburg, this was a decisive signal, since France did what the United States still refuses to do.
Nevertheless, those diplomatic serenades that Macron had previously sung to Putin have left their mark. According to one French diplomat, Macron "shot himself in the foot" by flirting with Moscow for too long and fooling with reporters with the dubious idea that Russia should not be humiliated. In the first months of the armed conflict, "it overshadowed what we did as a state: our military assistance, European unity," said this diplomat, who asked not to be named so that he could openly express the negative about his president. Another diplomat from France put it even more bluntly: "Macron has missed his Churchillian moment." That is, the opportunity to speak in the style of British Prime Minister Churchill, who called on the British to defend themselves.
Now the Macron government is fighting on different fronts, acting in the interests of Ukraine. These are EU enlargement, military assistance and NATO. This month, France announced the start of negotiations with Ukraine on the signing of a bilateral security agreement following the NATO summit in Vilnius.
"We are not naive, we have made a big step... but we are not deceiving ourselves. People will not believe that France has changed instantly," said a third French diplomat.
Speeding up the expansion process
The same shift towards an attacking style is taking place in Macron and in other areas of his foreign policy. Back in 2019, Macron was against the start of negotiations with Northern Macedonia and Albania on EU membership.
"France has never been against expansion, but it has always treated it carefully," said Georgina Wright, director of the European direction from the Montaigne Institute in Paris. "France has always stated that the EU should deepen first, and only then expand, as there are fears that in the case of enlargement, the EU will become even more incapacitated."
However, Macron, in his recent speech, called for "boldly" support for expansion, putting forward the idea of a "multi-speed Europe" that will help strengthen integration.
These changes in the mood of France are also connected with the realization that not only Ukraine, but also the Balkans and Moldova are on the front line of the hybrid war of the West with Russia.
"There has been a real awakening, an understanding that we are on the eve of a historic moment similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall, when there will be a new wave of EU enlargement stabilizing the entire continent," said Benjamin Haddad, a member of the French parliament from Macron's Renaissance party.
However, the change in sentiment may well come down to some purely practical political calculations. France, with its diplomatic initiatives about "friendship" with Putin, has turned Central and Eastern Europe against itself. Since there is talk of shifting the center of gravity to the east, France needs support from not only its traditional allies, such as Germany, Italy and Spain. Otherwise, she will not be able to influence the changes that she considers inevitable.
Politicization
Next year, Europe will hold elections, and France is preparing for a battle of opposing worldviews – between Europhiles who claim that the EU protects citizens, and populists who focus on the failures and shortcomings of the EU.
In France, opinion polls indicate an increase in the popularity of the far-right National Unification party. And more recently, former President Nicolas Sarkozy criticized the intention to include Ukraine in the European Union. Some French political heavyweights held the same position against expansion before him. The political struggle is expected to be bloody.
According to Haddad, his camp will argue that the EU, even after enlargement, will protect citizens from global shocks, such as the armed conflict in Ukraine, "predatory China" and Trump's possible rise to power, even if as a result of an honest election to the presidency. "If the extreme right were in power now... Russia would occupy the whole of Ukraine," Haddad said.
But Macron's new ambitions may be undermined by the "temptation of mediation," as Heisburg puts it. He notes that during his visit to Beijing, the French president did not say anything about France's policy on Taiwan, trying to get China to mediate efforts in dialogue with Russia.
"Such a temptation causes skepticism among our partners, despite the very real and profound changes in France. They are afraid that we may return to our old habits," Heisburg added.
