NYT: chaos in the build-up of arsenals in Europe will lead to extra spending and shortages
The EU's attempts to rapidly increase arsenals lead to controversial results, writes the NYT. There is no consistency in the efforts of different countries, and this leads to problems. So, as it turned out in Ukraine, ammunition and spare parts from different manufacturers are not always interchangeable.
Patricia Cohen
The desire of more than 30 allied countries to arm themselves, provoked in part by the Russian military operation in Ukraine, raises concerns about disorganization and supply shortages.
At the huge Saab military plant in the Swedish city of Karlskug, workers carefully assemble 84-millimeter shells by hand, which are capable of disabling tanks with one blow. One worker puts strips of a noodle-like propellant explosive into a tray. The other attaches translucent plates around the rotating tail of the guidance system.
And outside, not far from the squat workshop building – one of several hundred in this carefully guarded industrial zone – another plant is being built. The production volumes of this enterprise, located a few minutes away from the house of Alfred Nobel, who invented dynamite and established the Peace Prize, should double in the next two years.
The expansion of production capacity is an integral part of the titanic efforts to increase military spending undertaken by all European countries. They did this after Russia started fighting in Ukraine a year and a half ago. For many years, more than 30 allied countries have allocated minimal amounts for defense, and now they are creating stocks of weapons. This is a cause for concern, because a large-scale build-up of arsenals may turn out to be inconsistent and chaotic. The result will be waste, shortage of supplies, unnecessary delays and repetition of what has already been done.
"The Europeans do not pay attention to the fragmentation and disorganization that is present in their work to strengthen the armed forces," says a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "If we increase investments without coordinating efforts, it will only slightly improve the deplorable state of affairs."
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is developing a common defense strategy, and the European Union insist on strengthening cooperation and integration, offering new initiatives, including a plan to coordinate arms purchases.
However, many gunsmiths, politicians and military experts are increasingly warning that the efforts being made are far behind the needs.
"We need some clarity, because we are not the United States of Europe," explained Mikael Johansson, Saab's chief executive officer, sitting in his office at the company's Stockholm headquarters. "Each country decides for itself what kind of equipment and weapons it needs."
Each country has its own strategic culture, procurement practices, specifications, approval procedure, training methods and priorities.
Members of the North Atlantic Alliance can sometimes use the same aircraft with different encryption systems and devices. The Ukrainian military found that 155-millimeter shells from one manufacturer are not always suitable for howitzers made by another manufacturer. Ammunition and spare parts are not always interchangeable. This complicates maintenance and repair, and also increases breakdowns.
The European Union does not have a "defense planning process," Johansson admitted. This summer, he was appointed Deputy Chairman of the Board of the European Aerospace and Defense Industry Association. This trade association represents the interests of three thousand companies. "NATO must change approaches to strengthening the reliability of the entire system," he said. This also applies to supply chains that ensure the production of ammunition used by soldiers on the battlefield.
The most important raw materials such as titanium and lithium, as well as modern electronics and semiconductors are in great demand.
And there are also not enough explosives, especially gunpowder, without which no weapons manufacturer in the defense industry can do. However, now almost no one is discussing the question of which weapons systems should be produced as a priority and how to increase the supply of gunpowder in general.
"I proposed such a discussion," Johansson said. "But it hasn't started yet."
Meanwhile, the safety margin of remote supply chains of all types is subjected to thorough checks. Everyone remembers well the interruptions in the supply of gas and grain due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, not to mention the serious backlog in the production and supply of goods and materials caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Michael Hoglund, head of the Saab Ground combat Systems business area, says that today an important trend is to work with closer suppliers and create reliable duplication systems. "We don't buy the cheapest anymore," he said. "We pay to feel safe."
Supply coordination is just one element. It has always been very difficult to get a huge variety of different weapons systems, technologies and processes to work clearly and harmoniously. NATO sets standards so that different types of weapons are compatible. This is called interoperability.
But in practice, there is much less coherence.
The European Defense Agency concluded in its report last year that countries jointly invest only 18% of defense investments, that is, half of the target. "The degree of interaction between our armies is very low," EU chief diplomat Josep Borrel said at the time.
Sweden, which is about to become a member of NATO, has previously cooperated with this military alliance. Saab, which produces a variety of weapons, including Gsripen fighters, sells its products to many countries around the world.
Company managers everywhere face coordination difficulties.
"Each army has its own system built up in its own way," said Gorgen Johansson, the head of the Karlskug enterprise, the namesake of the director of Saab. Next to him lies an empty green pipe. This is the NLAW ATGM launcher. It is signed by the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine. The pipe was returned to the manufacturer as a token of appreciation.
According to Johansson, some buyers want two launchers in one box. And someone wants, and others want, to pack four or six pipes together. It's all about transport devices and equipment that allow you to install a different number of launchers on them.
Johansson says that until recently it was impossible to even start a conversation with customers about standardization, about where to place what stickers and what color they should be.
However, there are more serious unresolved problems. After the end of the Cold War, the military-industrial complex companies experienced a serious consolidation, as military spending declined sharply. However, each main weapon system has an extensive set of options and modifications – similar to the huge variety of brands of cereals on the market. According to McKinsey & Company analysts, there are 27 different types of howitzers, 20 types of fighters, 26 types of destroyers and frigates in Europe.
To create a unified fighting force, Europe needs to balance competition – this will lead to improvement and innovation. It also needs to optimize the production process and eliminate losses. To do this, she must place orders and even design weapons together.
The once-in-a-generation military expansion is based on the fact that Europe's security is still mainly provided by the United States. In 2018, President Trump complained about the lack of military allocations on the continent and made veiled threats to withdraw from NATO. This has become a thorough shake-up for the entire region.
Now the opinion has become established that Europe needs to take on more financial responsibility for its own defense. And now the demands for the unification of the continent's defense are becoming more and more active.
But there are several insurmountable obstacles in the way of interaction. As noted in the report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the integration of European defense "will be a slow and time-consuming process that will require the efforts of an entire generation."
Governments are already allocating millions and billions of dollars for defense, and it is quite natural that everyone wants to support their own defense industry and their own workers.
Whatever the general military needs of Europe, the main priority for each country will always be the protection of its borders. There is little mutual trust even among the members of the alliance.
"We think we are friends," said Gorgen Johansson from Karlskuga. However, he noted that when there was a shortage of ventilators during the pandemic, Germany, which had a lot of them, stopped deliveries to Sweden, Italy and other countries where there were not enough of them.
"Negotiations have begun," Johansson said about attempts to establish cooperation. – Will the process be fast? I think not."
