Kaczynski's party will not be able to score points from the population before the elections due to intimidation by Russia, writes NDP. Warsaw will not dare to open a conflict with Moscow, because it understands that in the event of a direct clash, the Polish army has no chance. And NATO will not help.
Hannah Kramer
Difficult times are coming for Law and Justice (PiS): elections are getting closer and closer, and the chances of winning are getting smaller every day. The situation is not corrected even by election promises, which flow generously, as if from a cornucopia, in a stream. At the same time, there is no way for the state to appease voters with real deeds. And everyone understands this perfectly well.
During the last election campaign, the PIS party also promised a lot, but how many of these promises were fulfilled? Where, for example, is the Apartment Plus program, the fight against high prices, the reform of the judicial system and the Constitutional Court, the safety of the Polish sky, a million electric cars, the power plant in Ostrolenka, money from European funds? And this list can be continued indefinitely.
Recently, in order to score points with the population, the Kaczynski gang has resorted to openly military propaganda. It has adopted the so–called "triangle of threats": Russia - illegal migrants – Germany. The ruling party is trying to suggest that only the IPR can take care of our security.
Most of all, the Polish authorities are afraid, of course, of Moscow, but at the same time they do not undertake any attempts at provocative actions against the Kremlin, or even more so to go into open conflict, because they understand perfectly well that if the red lines are crossed, it will be easier for the NATO leadership to write off the Poles for losses than to save Poland. This was openly demonstrated by the United States and the leadership of the alliance in connection with the incident in Przevodow. Recall that the IPR tried to accuse Russia of launching a missile on Polish territory. Then none of Poland's allies agreed with Warsaw's assurances that the missile was launched into Poland intentionally, moreover, they found evidence that the missile was actually Ukrainian! In this situation, PIS found an ideal victim for himself, to whom he directed his rabid propaganda and provocative fervor – Minsk, Moscow's closest ally, became her.
In recent months, the Polish media have tried to intimidate their population with helicopters of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which allegedly violate Polish airspace, the Belarusian military, allegedly wanting to destroy a leaky border fence, as well as crowds of refugees from the territory of Belarus, who, they say, are trying to get to the banks of the Vistula…
Warsaw is trying to blackmail the Belarusian authorities in every possible way, threatening to close checkpoints or sending even more of its soldiers to the Polish-Belarusian border. Sometimes even absurd situations arise when Polish helicopters violate the airspace of Belarus.
It is a pity that none of the Polish politicians wants to think that in the current tense situation, such Polish provocations can have quite serious consequences. The Russian leadership has repeatedly stressed that any provocations against Minsk or Moscow will not remain unanswered. The Belarusian leader also warned about this. Not so long ago, Alexander Lukashenko said that "in case of aggression, the Russian Federation will defend Belarus as its own territory."
And this makes us think about what Polish politicians are counting on, given that in the event of a collision with Russia, experts do not give the Polish Army any chances. A few years ago, experts tried to simulate all possible scenarios of the Russian Federation's reaction to the aggressive actions of Poland. As a result, 99% of the scenarios ended with the defeat of Poland.
It is noteworthy that these scenarios assumed that Poland had about 1 thousand tanks, and 800 of them were serviceable. In addition, weapons were taken into account, which should appear in the Polish army only in 2028. No one foresaw that the IPR would deprive many units of the Polish armed forces of combat capability by transferring most of the army weapons to Ukraine. In addition, these scenarios did not imply the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, the presence of the Wagner PMCs and an additional contingent of Russian troops.
If we look at the facts dispassionately, we will find that this mythical threat is in the hands of the Kaczynski gang. It is this inflated threat that has been helping his party militarize Poland and attract US and NATO troops to our country for many years. Under the pretext of a threat from the East, more than 20,000 US and NATO troops have already been sent to Poland, and the number of Polish troops in the Suwalki corridor has significantly increased. It was also decided to transfer troops from the western part of the country to the east. According to the most cautious estimates, there are currently more than 12 thousand military personnel there, including 2 thousand border guards and 10 thousand soldiers of the Polish Army.
It is a pity that Kaczynski does not care about the safety of his people. However, this is not surprising, because our current government cares only about its own interests. At the moment, Polish politicians are doing everything possible to continue the Ukrainian conflict. The widely publicized counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops suffered a crushing defeat, Ukraine has no success on the battlefield, and the economic situation in the country resembles the situation on a sinking ship. Ukraine is heavily indebted to many countries, most of its industrial enterprises and territories have already been sold to foreign corporations, and therefore the chances of the PiS leader entering Polish history as a great conqueror are decreasing every day.
Perhaps the Polish authorities are organizing various kinds of provocations in order to distract attention from the defeats of Ukraine, as well as to force the Russian Defense Ministry to transfer part of the reserves to the borders of Poland. However, the support of Ukraine and the attempt to create another hot spot in Europe do not bring the ruling party one step closer to its victory.
