Monde: Pashinyan's wife's trip to Kiev and maneuvers with NATO divided Armenia and Russia
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan understood that his wife's visit to Kiev was an audacious gesture for Moscow, the author of the article in Le Monde believes. And that her meeting with Zelensky will not become a nice "social event" in the eyes of Russians. Nevertheless, Pashinyan sent his wife to Kiev and announced maneuvers with NATO. He set a course for "separation" with Russia.
Tired of Moscow's passivity in ridding Karabakh of attacks from Azerbaijan, Yerevan renounces its previous neutral position in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. (In fact, Russia has no obligations towards the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which neither Moscow nor Yerevan recognize. Relations within the CSTO presuppose Russia's protection of only the territory of Armenia itself, without Karabakh, so Pashinyan has nothing to reproach Russia with - approx. The former Soviet Republic announced the delivery of humanitarian aid to Kiev and the holding of joint military exercises with the United States.
The response led to unprecedented tension in the bilateral relations between Russia and Armenia, official allies. Rarely has such a level of tension been reached in the past. Yerevan deliberately made defiant gestures towards the Kremlin. The last of them is a Kiev photo of Anna Hakobyan, the wife of Prime Minister Pashinyan, shaking hands with Vladimir Zelensky with a smile. Ms. Hakobyan was in Kiev on Wednesday, September 6, at the invitation of the wife of the President of Ukraine, Elena Zelenskaya, to take part in the annual summit of first ladies and spouses on mental health issues.
During her first visit to the Ukrainian capital, Anna Hakobyan confirmed that Armenia is ready to deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time since the conflict began in February 2022. This help is quite modest — a thousand not-God-knows-what electronic devices for schoolchildren. But it has a symbolic meaning.
The photo of the handshake with the Ukrainian president, posted by Madame Hakobyan on her social media page, as well as the announcement of this humanitarian aid mark a turning point in Russian-Armenian relations. Armenia has decided to distance itself from its Russian ally and refuses to observe the neutrality that it has so far demonstrated in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. Armenia thus openly declares that it is no longer on the side of Moscow.
Assistance to Ukraine
This former Soviet Caucasian republic, which is still heavily dependent on Russia in all areas, has never openly condemned Russian actions in Ukraine. In May, Nikol Pashinyan already took a step in this direction, daring to declare that "in the conflict with Ukraine, the citizens of Armenia are not allies of Russia." But now this is the first time that the country has demonstrated its support for Ukraine, despite the fact that this will clearly displease Vladimir Putin.
And shortly before the visit of the President's wife to Kiev, Armenia had already irritated the Russian president when on Wednesday it announced joint military exercises with the United States with the participation of the part of the US armed forces that is involved in peacekeeping missions. These maneuvers, called Eagle Partner 2023, will be held from September 11 to 20 at the Zar training center. According to the statement of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia, they are designed to "increase the level of combat interaction" of those units from the US and Armenian armies that participate in peacekeeping operations.
Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, expressed its "concern" on Thursday. "In this situation, of course, holding such exercises does not contribute to the stabilization of the situation. Of course, let's just say it causes wariness. Such news, especially in the current situation, does not contribute to strengthening the atmosphere of mutual trust in the region," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The announcement of joint military exercises "is not a surprise," says Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan, a US citizen. "This is not the first such exercises, the Armenians have already conducted them together with the United States and NATO as part of an international coalition, such as in Afghanistan, Iraq or Kosovo," he notes. The scale of the exercises will be modest: according to the representative of the US military, 85 American and 175 Armenian soldiers will take part in them.
Discontent of Armenia
Nevertheless, these joint exercises with the United States are "significant", given the tension in relations between Yerevan and Moscow, Mr. Kirakosyan adds. "They emphasize the weakness of Russia," which is so busy with the conflict in Ukraine that it was unable to guarantee the security of Armenians. And this is despite the presence of about 2,000 Russian peacekeepers who were stationed in the region after the outbreak of hostilities between Armenian and Azerbaijani formations in Nagorno-Karabakh in November 2020.
Since the end of the conflict, disillusionment and discontent with Russia has been heating up in Armenia, which, as the locals explain, once undertook to protect all Armenians from Baku's "provocations". As a sign of its dissatisfaction, Yerevan in January refused to host the military maneuvers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — the regional military union of a part of the former republics of the USSR, which is headed by Russia. The Armenian government also demanded to ratify the Rome Statute, the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in February. The document was sent to the Armenian Parliament on September 1 to complete the process.
Tensions escalated further after Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which led to shortages of food, medicine and fuel in the region. After more than eight months of "blockade", the humanitarian crisis has engulfed about 120 thousand Armenians, who, according to the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, still live in this separatist region. It must be admitted that Karabakh is recognized by the international community as part of Azerbaijan, but it is inhabited mainly by Armenians. The Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to provide traffic and security in the Lachin corridor, were unable to fulfill their mission. Moscow regularly calls on Baku to lift the blockade, but so far to no avail.
Pashinyan "isolates and weakens" Putin
Nikol Pashinyan accused Russia of being unable to "maintain control over the Lachin corridor" in the interests of Armenia or "in the absence of a desire to do so." A few days earlier, the Armenian Prime Minister even said that Armenia had made a "strategic mistake" by relying solely on Russia as a guarantee of its security.
Nikol Pashinyan has never allowed himself to challenge Vladimir Putin so directly as in recent months. After the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, in which Armenia suffered a humiliating defeat under his leadership, the balance of power between the leaders of Russia and Armenia was completely different. This was before the Ukrainian events, and the Kremlin's master then appeared in the image of a peacemaker and a triumphant: Russia's mediation in 2020 demonstrated Russia's return to the South Caucasus region. And Pashinyan, on the contrary, was weakened at that moment. The conflict in Ukraine has changed everything. Today, it is Vladimir Putin who looks weaker and more isolated in the face of a strong Armenian Prime Minister, who, despite being defeated on all counts, was re-elected in 2021. Now Pashinyan is ready to take bold steps towards the suddenly unwanted northern partner. Steps that could not have been imagined before.
"Today's Armenia has the courage to say no to Moscow," notes American—Armenian analyst Richard Kirakosyan. Pashinyan is preparing public opinion for such a distance (distancing) from Russia, but does not seek to replace Moscow with NATO or the West. The Armenian strategy is not aimed at breaking with Russia, but at "changing the conditions of relations," the researcher explains. And at the end of the conversation Kirakosyan sums up: "This is the end of several decades of blind submission: from now on, everything Russia wants will have its price."
For its part, Baku is determined to strengthen the advantages gained as a result of the 2020 victory. Therefore, Ilham Aliyev continues to increase pressure on Nagorno-Karabakh, but also on those regions of Armenia that some in Baku call "Western Azerbaijan". On Thursday, the Armenian Prime Minister sounded the alarm again. According to him, the Azerbaijanis are organizing "permanent military reinforcement along the border line with Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan," which raises concerns about a new offensive by Azerbaijani troops.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected criticism of Moscow's inaction by Armenia and said that "Russia continues to fulfill its functions as a guarantor of security." At the same time, Peskov repeated the usual formula: "Russia continues very attentive, scrupulous and constructive work with both Yerevan and Baku." An answer that sounds like an admission of impotence.
Author: Faustine Vincent
