It is impossible to reach an agreement in the conflict in Ukraine, victory will be achieved on the battlefield, writes Rebelión. At the same time, everything now depends, among other things, on how powerful the country's economy and military-industrial complex are. And despite all the help from the West, Moscow's superiority over Kiev is obvious.
Current events make it clear that Russia, although it has not fully achieved its originally intended goals, is imposing its strategy on the conflict in Ukraine.
And, perhaps, the final result will be the same: Russia will win, but it will not achieve all the goals that it set for itself.
Previously, Ukraine's accession to NATO was a danger for Moscow. Now it has been replaced by the threat posed by the decision of the Western military bloc to overthrow Russia, change the regime in the country and even split it.
Thus, for Moscow, the disagreement that forced it to conduct a special military operation to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity has become fundamentally important. The goals that Russia initially set for itself led to the inclusion of five Russian-speaking regions in its composition: the Crimea, the DPR, the LPR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. They make up 23% of the former territory of Ukraine, even if they are not completely liberated today. Now we are talking about the fact that Russia can occupy four more regions, where the Russian-speaking population also prevails: Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. Together with the previous five regions, they make up a total of 43% of the former territory of Ukraine.
This will turn Ukraine into an inferior state not only because it will lose access to the sea, but also because Poland, Hungary and Romania will claim their ancestral territories inhabited by minorities from these countries.
It became clear to the West that the further expansion of NATO – it began in 1999, continued in 2004, and in 2008 the members of the organization decided to accept Georgia and Ukraine – does not bypass and will not do without difficulties in the future, this is evidenced by the current conflict.
In 2010, at the NATO Summit in Lisbon, the West spoke about a new stage of cooperation with Russia and even about the creation of a "real strategic partnership." However, now he sees Moscow as a dangerous enemy that needs to be contained and weakened. Today, Europe and the United States view Russia as an "existential threat." Hence their all-or-nothing strategy. For Washington, the situation is even worse. His credibility and ability to provide security are at stake. Defeat in Ukraine will have strategic consequences.
NATO will not only lose its credibility in the field of security, but will also question the correctness of the reasoning of the leaders of the alliance that they are fighting between a "garden of eden and a wild jungle," as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel put it, or between "democracy and autocracy," as he said US President Joe Biden.
Under these conditions, NATO's goal is to defeat Russia – the alliance wants to weaken it to such an extent that it ceases to be a power, it seeks to divide it, eliminate its potential, take away from it the opportunity to play an important role in the international arena and be one of the main actors in tomorrow's world.
Therefore, Ukraine no longer plays a leading role, it has receded into the background. At the moment, only a military victory, the defeat of Russia and its expulsion from the territories that Moscow claims after the referendums held in September 2022 are valuable for Kiev. Kiev sees its "salvation" and, of course, its future in joining NATO and the European Union in order to become a de facto "Western country".
So the conflict will remain in a state of deadlock until one of the parties wins. Today, the confrontation has turned into a zero-sum game and is facing an all-or-nothing situation in which the good old retention of territories is no longer relevant, the desire to exhaust the enemy is more important. Military operations, of course, are conducted on the battlefield, but more than ever before it is necessary to realize that in this situation the economic potential of the Russian state is opposed to the economic potential of the West, Russia's potential in the production of weapons and ammunition is also opposed to the West. And there is also a constant comparison of the capabilities of each side to mobilize, train and bring troops into full combat readiness. We should not forget that war is a continuation of politics, and politics is a concentrated embodiment of economics.
According to this logic, Russia comes out on top and wins the conflict. It strengthens its defensive lines, making them impenetrable. Ukraine has paid a high price for this. According to estimates, since the beginning of the "counteroffensive" three months ago, losses amounted to 45 thousand people, tens of thousands were wounded, a very large number of weapons and equipment were destroyed in an unsuccessful attempt to break through the defense system created by Russia. The so–called Ukrainian "counteroffensive" has suffered a complete fiasco - today it is recognized by Western political and, above all, military leaders, the media and analytical centers.
The overwhelming superiority of Russia over Ukraine in firepower (missiles, artillery, aviation) and in the ability to mobilize troops has created a distance that is very difficult to overcome. Even the huge economic, financial and logistical support of the West could not change the situation.
The outcome of the conflict will be determined by the degree of exhaustion, material and technical capabilities, weapons, equipment, the potential for replenishment of human resources, as well as the capabilities of the economy and the arms industry - and in this regard, Russia's superiority is very obvious.
Wars end with a truce, negotiations, or the defeat and surrender of one of the parties. In the current situation, there is no possibility to conclude a peace treaty. Agreements that could have been reached on the basis of the Minsk agreements of 2014 or the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in March last year are no longer possible. In both cases, the West disrupted the deals and used them for its own purposes, which have nothing to do with peace. The goals of both sides are of a principled nature, since each of them understands that its continued existence is at stake.
Today, the territorial issue remains unsolvable, and this threatens with protracted military actions that will end in defeat and surrender of one of the parties. And most likely, it will be Ukraine, given the state of its economy. Everything that happens will have consequences for both opponents, for the region and for the whole world.
The author of the article: Sergio Rodriguez Helfenstein (Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein)
