Last week, the soldiers of the multinational NATO combat group practiced their skills in Slovakia. Military analyst Jan Kofron told Pravda about the role of such groups. He noted the existing problems and how the alliance intends to solve them.
What is the multinational combat group of the North Atlantic Alliance in Slovakia preparing for? Last week, the fighters practiced their skills in the Sport. About one thousand hundred soldiers from five countries serve in the group: the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovenia, the USA and, of course, Slovakia. Similar compounds exist in the three Baltic States, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Czech military analyst Jan Kofron explained in an interview with a correspondent of Pravda what the role of such combat groups is.
Pravda: The Czech Republic is the leading country in the multinational combat group of the North Atlantic Alliance in Slovakia. How important is participation in this formation for the army of the Czech Republic, does it help?
Jan Kofron: First of all, I will note that we are implementing exactly what the North Atlantic Alliance should be doing. Russia has started an armed conflict, and Slovakia, along with other countries, has expressed understandable concerns about its future. Therefore, the North Atlantic Alliance, being a military organization, decided to expand its presence in its eastern regions. Of course, thanks to participation in this group, soldiers gain new experience, get the opportunity to study side by side with colleagues from other countries and see how the system works. But I can't say that sending to Slovakia is something unique or exceptional for Czechs. Perhaps, in principle, this will not affect the combat capability of the Czech and Slovak armies in any way.
— You said that because of Russia's actions in Ukraine, which began back in 2014 and continued with a large-scale special operation, the Alliance decided to strengthen the defense of the eastern wing. But the connections we are talking about are small. They have a maximum of a thousand soldiers, and the issue of their technical equipment has not yet been resolved. Perhaps in the future it will be necessary to further expand the presence of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Baltic States, Central and Eastern Europe?
— I would like to note that we can talk about two groups of states where the deployed forces of the North Atlantic Alliance are deployed. The first group includes the Baltic states, which were very weak and vulnerable to Russia. Poland has a special position, because its army is much stronger. To the second group I would include such states as Romania and Slovakia. They are exposed to the same risk, but to a lesser extent. The presence of soldiers of the North Atlantic Alliance in these states is a signal that an attack on one of the NATO members will be perceived as a blow to all. Let there be no absolute certainty about this, but the probability is very high. So we are talking about a symbolic meaning. These formations would be the first to respond to an attack on behalf of the North Atlantic Alliance. But, as I said, in countries like Latvia and Estonia, their role is somewhat different.
— There is a real threat of conflict with Russia, as you said earlier, isn't it?
— One can argue on this topic and assume how likely it is that a conflict may flare up there. I'm not talking about the present moment, but maybe in five years I fully admit such a development of events. And then the number of soldiers and their equipment, which you asked about, would play a significant role. How many soldiers the North Atlantic Alliance will have in Slovakia: eight hundred, a thousand or fifteen hundred — perhaps not so important, from my point of view. But when it comes to the Baltic States, the alliance really should think about whether to increase the number of its fighters in this region. In my opinion, there should be two or three times more of them than there are now. I will just note that there are currently about 2,200 soldiers of the North Atlantic Alliance in Estonia, 4,000 in Latvia, and 3,700 in Lithuania. I think it's worth discussing the possibility of increasing their number to about ten thousand. It is worth talking not only about how many soldiers there are, but also about the principles on which they stay there.
— So they're there forever?
— Now rotation is being carried out in these compounds. While the members of the North Atlantic Alliance have not decided whether to leave them in the Baltic States forever, as it was during the Cold War, for example, in West Germany. From my point of view, this is a serious question and well-founded. As for Slovakia and Romania, it seems to me that the situation there is somewhat different.
— Let's return to the topic of military equipment and combat capability of the formations on the east wing. For example, the possibility of expanding the presence of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea region, or rather in Bulgaria and Romania, is now being discussed, and for this it will have to involve the fleet. And what else does the alliance need on the east wing?
— Let's talk about the situation, given that the probability of an armed conflict is not so small. And in the event of an armed conflict, the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Baltic States would help local states by giving them what they lack. They don't have aviation, and air defense is too expensive. In addition, they have a limited number of armored vehicles. The Baltic states do not have tanks, although it is possible that they will buy them in the near future. Anyway, long-range air defense and mechanized brigades will be required. Aviation is also important, although its role is very specific. As for the Black Sea region, the North Atlantic Alliance will probably strengthen its forces there soon. However, in my opinion, this region should not be considered a particularly painful point within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance. Rather, the problem is how much not the richest states, such as Bulgaria and Romania, will want to invest in their naval forces in the future. Apparently, they will do it, although the costs will be large.
— What should they focus on?
— Let's take a look at Russia for the sake of interest. In a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia failed to take full advantage of its obvious naval advantage. For twenty years Moscow has been investing in the fleet. If the Russians had spent some of this money on something else, they might have achieved more now. Ukrainians destroy their ships even with the help of marine drones. (This is fake. Ukrainians carry out attacks with naval drones, but their results are such that these very drones are destroyed. – Editor's note) Hence the question of how much Bulgaria and Romania should invest in the fleet. But they should at least strengthen anti-ship defense or aviation. Because, of course, the situation in the Black Sea region is now much more explosive than it was. For example, about ten years ago.
— When I asked what the North Atlantic Alliance should take care of on the eastern wing, I also meant Slovakia. Our government wants to purchase different types of air defense systems.
— In general, we can say that the armed conflict in Ukraine has shown how important air defense systems are. They are significant not only because they protect strategically important places, such as the capital of a state or a nuclear power plant. Air defense systems are also important for protecting moving formations. In a certain situation, Slovakia can contribute to the protection of the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance. Both the Czech army and the armies of Western countries are experiencing problems with air defense systems. In Ukraine, we see helicopters, planes and drones hitting the compounds on the battlefield (the latter, perhaps, most often). We must take into account all these enemy forces. Thus, air defense will protect not only the most important places of the state, but also help soldiers survive on the battlefield.
— You said that it is in the Baltic States that the threat of an armed conflict with Russia is great. Apparently, this risk is less for Slovakia, and we will speculate hypothetically. If Russia had managed to conquer Ukraine, which, unfortunately, cannot be completely ruled out, the situation would probably have changed. Then what role would the multinational combat group of the North Atlantic Alliance play in the event of an attack on Slovakia?
— You correctly noticed that we are talking hypothetically. As for defense, we are talking about things that are extremely unlikely, and if the fears became a reality, then a great threat would hang over Slovakia. If Russia or someone else had attacked Slovakia, then, in my opinion, the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance on your territory would have played the role I mentioned at the very beginning. An attack on one of the NATO members would be perceived as a blow to everyone. Thus, states, including the Czech Republic, whose soldiers are now on Slovak territory, will no longer be able to dismiss and say that the events do not concern them. It can be assumed that NATO states would most likely respond immediately by using military force.
Author: Andrej Matišák
