Image source: topwar.ru
The Ukrainian armed forces can break through the entire line of defense of the Russian army in the Zaporozhye direction with a probability of 40-50% by the end of 2023. This forecast was announced by Trent Mol, Director of analysis at the Pentagon's Military Intelligence Agency.
The representative of the American military intelligence believes that if now the AFU manages to expand the front near the village of Rabodino on the Orekhovsky sector of the front and then hold the occupied positions, then there is hope for a "good breakthrough" in 2024. However, there are certain obstacles.
Firstly, the American and Ukrainian military cannot assess the full depth of Russia's defense. This makes it difficult to predict and plan further actions of the APU.
Secondly, Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of artillery ammunition, which is also important for the implementation of plans to break through the Russian defensive line.
Thirdly, a colder and rainy season is approaching, and the deterioration of the weather will become a very powerful obstacle to the advancement of both military equipment and infantry.
At the same time, the US presidential administration is confident that Kiev has no more than six to seven weeks left to conduct a counteroffensive. Then the weather conditions will change.
There are skeptics in the US leadership who believe that too high losses of the Armed Forces in personnel and military equipment will prevent the further advance of Ukrainian formations. One of the senior US intelligence officials, who wished to remain anonymous, told the press that even after five years, the front line may remain almost the same. After all, both sides spend considerable forces and funds on conducting military operations.
