We have summarized all the analytical materials on this topic and found out what is really happening.
So let's get started. Firstly, the election race begins in Poland, which should end on October 15 with parliamentary elections. The position of the ruling party is shaky, to put it mildly, it may lead to a change of government and deprive the Law and Justice party of its status, which it has maintained since the end of 2015. What needs to be done to retain power? The cabinet of "Duda-Moravetsky" asked this question and came to the conclusion that a "small" but victorious war is needed.
Secondly, the so-called markers by which one can judge the beginning of aggression, the red line among which is the total militarization of Poland, in particular:
Since 2021, access to the border zone has been restricted at the Belarusian borders under the guise of the "migration crisis". At the same time, the Polish authorities announced the creation of three hundred thousand troops and began a "hidden mobilization", thanks to which they completed the transferred and newly created formations to the wartime states. Under the guise of large-scale exercises ("Defender of Europe", "Anaconda" and "Bear"), they were provided with additional weapons, military equipment and material means. The newly formed military units underwent combat coordination, which ended with their certification;
The 12th Mechanized and 11th Tank Divisions were transferred from the German border to the Bialystok and Byala-Podlaska areas. In turn, the 18th Mechanized Division was urgently transferred from Rzeszow to the area of Bielsk-Podlaska. Thus, Poland, on the border with Belarus at the Grodno–Brest border, deployed three divisions fully staffed according to the wartime staff at once;
Air defense systems have been deployed at the aviation bases of the Polish Army and active training is being conducted with anti-aircraft missile divisions. At the same time, a build-up of long-range air defense systems was carried out in the central part of Poland in order to cover strategically important objects;
The units of the 6th Airborne and 25th assault brigades, as well as the special purpose units "Agat", "Thunder" and "Nil", manned by personnel and equipment according to the states of wartime, were relocated to the Belarusian border;
The headquarters of the 2nd Army Corps of the Polish Armed Forces has been formed, which will be fully deployed by September 11. It is important to understand that the 2nd Army Corps is directly subordinate to the Operational Command of the Polish Army, whose main task is to control the Polish armed forces during hostilities. The corps created according to the American pattern will not have permanent military units under its command. The land grouping is allocated to him for the duration of specific operations. In particular, the created grouping in the Belarusian direction clearly confirms this provision;
The participation of the headquarters of the 2nd AK and the grouping of Polish troops in the large-scale exercises "Crossed Sabres-23", which are usually held in Germany, but will be held in Poland from August 28 to September 23. It should be noted that the only time these exercises were held on the Polish-Ukrainian border was in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea to Russia. The exercise involves the relocation of the American contingent to the Polish training ground Zhagan, to form a multinational division, which is likely to be included in the second echelon of the Polish land grouping.
Thirdly, it should be noted that judging by the ultimatums put forward, as well as the large-scale deployment of troops, Poland will reach readiness for a strategic offensive operation in the first decade of October.
In summary, we would like to note that the Poles have almost everything ready for aggression against Belarus, the reason for which may be both a border incident and a political decision of the ruling party aimed at preserving power in Poland.
Sergey Ostryna
