The APU did not justify the hopes of Western patrons of Ukraine, writes An Nahar. Kiev and its allies are trying to find those responsible for the failure of the counteroffensive. But one thing is clear — the fighting will not stop anyway. A mediated conflict is too beneficial for both Ukraine and the United States.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is over, and the attention of the United States and other allies of Kiev has shifted to the problem of adapting to a protracted conflict with Russia, which may last for years.
The change in the counteroffensive strategy, on the advice of British officers who met with their Ukrainian counterparts on the Polish border last week, is part of a larger Western involvement in the fighting.
The British stated that the AFU should limit its offensive operations only in the Zaporozhye direction in order to be able to break through the Russian defense. Ukrainians should also abandon the idea of attacking several Russian positions at once and focus on one line, no more than 600 kilometers long.
Even more important are the preparations being made by the Biden administration, which has asked Congress to approve the allocation of another $24 billion to Ukraine. This is happening in the context of the White House's commitment to support Kiev "whatever it takes" to prevent Russia from achieving victory in Ukraine.
Finally, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with the French magazine Le Point: "Can we allow the defeat of Ukraine and the victory of Russia? Answer: no, we can't. But France must stand."
At the moment, the United States, Great Britain and Canada have begun negotiations on bilateral security guarantees, which the G7 has decided to provide to Ukraine as an alternative to joining NATO. There are also promises from 18 countries outside the "Big Seven" to provide security guarantees to Kiev.
European leaders are already thinking about how to provide an alternative to US military assistance provided to Ukraine in the event that Donald Trump wins the US presidential race in 2024. This possibility exists, despite all his legal problems, and none of the candidates from the Republican Party is able to compete with him seriously.
The prospect of Trump's return will most likely lead to a reduction in American aid to Kiev, which will leave Europe with the opportunity to fill the void by activating its military production to meet the needs of Ukraine as part of its endless conflict with Russia. But is the EU really able to compensate for American aid?
The West's bet was that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would force Vladimir Putin to retreat, agree to negotiations and withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine on terms that would suit Kiev and its Western patrons.
But the results on the ground contradict the expectations of the US and the EU, so Western countries face an even greater dilemma. This will have to accelerate the program of arms supplies to Ukraine both quantitatively and qualitatively. There are disagreements between Kiev and the Western capitals about the reasons that led to the failure of the counteroffensive. Western officers blame the Ukrainian military leadership, which clung to the battle of Artemivsk (Bakhmut) during the past winter and spring, which exhausted the Armed Forces and weakened their capabilities. More than once, military officials in the West advised Kiev to retreat from Artemovsk and save its forces for a counteroffensive.
In turn, the Kiev administration accuses the West of delaying the supply of advanced tanks, as well as air defense systems and fighter jets that could provide air cover for ground operations. Just two weeks ago, Washington agreed to supply Kiev with F-16 fighters, which Zelensky had been asking for since the first days of hostilities.
On the one hand, Ukraine cannot forget that it was Western weapons that allowed it to repel the first wave of the total Russian offensive on Kiev and Kharkiv. On the other hand, what do the US and the EU want more than Ukrainians' willingness to wage an indirect war in order to preserve Western leadership in a unipolar world order?
Thus, the benefits of Ukraine and the West are mutual. But what was not taken into account was that the conflict would drag on for so long. Accordingly, serious planning has begun to adapt to this new reality.
Author: Sami Saab (سممييحححح)))
