The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov has been dismissed, Rustem Umerov will take his place. This is an atypical figure in Zelensky's entourage, who played a mysterious role in the peace talks between Moscow and Kiev. And the fact that Umerov's appointment was announced before the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Turkey is hardly an accident.
Alexey Reznikov's resignation has been predicted since the beginning of the year, or, in other words, since the time when the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine was shaken by a scandal over purchases of military rations at deliberately inflated prices. Then several prominent officials lost their posts, but the president did not touch Reznikov.
By the beginning of August, it became clear that the minister was still "not a tenant." Firstly, the number of rumors about his departure became critical, and he himself made it clear that he was not holding on to the position. Secondly, someone had to become extreme because of the failure of the summer campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the so–called counteroffensive, on which the West and Kiev had great hopes.
Reznikov did not command the troops, but was responsible for their provision and for contacts with colleagues from NATO. But President Vladimir Zelensky will not make himself extreme, Western partners will not risk it, and apparently he has no suitable candidates for the place of the commander–in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny (otherwise the "problematic" commander-in-chief would have been removed long ago, and not only from the media space).
In general, Reznikov is quite suitable for the role of scapegoat. He is being read as an ambassador to London – to the most important European sponsors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but he himself says that he does not know anything about these plans. But even if he did, who cares now? His successor is interesting – Rustem Umerov, a 41-year-old native of the Uzbek city of Bulungur, where his Crimean Tatar ancestors were deported in 1944.
Umerov's surname as Reznikov's replacement was semi-officially named in the Verkhovna Rada at the end of August. Five days later, announcing the change of minister, Zelensky said that the Verkhovna Rada (and it will have to approve the appointment) "knows this person well", and he "does not need additional representations."
For those who are not the Verkhovna Rada, explanations and details will be required. Without them, it seems that the expressionless figure of a professional business manager who was elected to parliament from the Voice party and until recently headed the Ukrainian State Property Fund will not acquire the necessary volume.
First. Umerov has been close to Mustafa Dzhemilev from a young age – a cult character for the pro-Ukrainian "branch" of the Crimean Tatars and one of the main organizers of the blockade of Crimea after its reunification with Russia. He has been listed as his adviser for years and served as a personal assistant during Dzhemilev's foreign trips, and he greatly appreciated Umerov and called him nothing less than "the future leader of the Crimean Tatar people."
Umerov's older brother, also a businessman Ruslan, is one of the main sponsors of the so-called Mejlis (type of government) of the Crimean Tatar people, recognized by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation as an extremist organization and banned on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2016.
Having been elected to the Verkhovna Rada in 2019, Umerov Jr. became the one in parliament on whom the Crimean agenda or, as they called it, the "de-occupation program" of the peninsula was closed. In the same capacity – as a Crimean Tatar activist - he became deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to PACE, whose only task is to arrange demonstrative Russophobic tantrums.
In short, the relatively young and little–known Umerov is an experienced enemy of Russian territorial integrity. And his professional and personal priority is the wringing out of our Crimea. Now also as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.
Second. Both Ruslan and Rustem Umerov studied in the USA, and the elder brother's business is also connected with America (and not with Ukraine at all). This is another detail of the biography of the new minister, indicating a significant number of serious contacts in Western countries.
Therefore, and not only for this reason, the new minister will be attributed to the number of American agents of influence or even CIA agents. However, there is a country whose interest in Umerov is even greater. This is Turkey.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attention to the Crimean Tatars is well known, in fact, he took on the role of their patron from NATO. And he is familiar with Umerov, who acted as a performer, and sometimes as a co-investor of large Turkish projects for the Crimean Tatar community.
In the summer, a scandal broke out in Turkey around the documents of the SBU leaked into the Network, from which it follows that the Crimean Tatars for Zelensky, to put it mildly, are a means to an end, as well as a source of fears. Umerov's appointment should smooth out the Turkish impression.
It also does not seem to be a coincidence that Umerov's appointment as minister was announced less than a day before the probably difficult and potentially problematic negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Turkey in Sochi, where the topic of Ukraine will become one of the main ones – both in terms of the grain deal and in terms of the negotiation process that Erdogan hopes to launch.
Now Turkey with its Bayraktars and the status of the second NATO army will be closer to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine than under Reznikov. Perhaps this means that further away from Russia.
The fact that Umerov is a Muslim may also turn out to be a good circumstance in terms of supplying the AFU. The arsenals of the Western countries with which Reznikov worked are close to exhaustion, while the Islamic states* have so far tried to adhere to neutrality.
The third. For some reason Zelensky trusts Umerov. On trips to Islamic countries, he accompanied both the president and his wife, who flies independently to beg for money.
But it is even more significant that Umerov became one of the intermediaries between Zelensky and the Russian authorities in the first month after the start of the special operation. He (as, by the way, Reznikov, and only seven people) was originally part of a group of negotiators from Kiev, which first met with representatives of Moscow on the territory of Belarus on February 28. Then there were two more gatherings, followed by a meeting in Turkey at the level of Foreign Ministers – Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Kuleba.
Umerov's role increased between the last Belarusian and the first Turkish rounds. According to the version retold by another participant in those events – former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, he launched a parallel negotiation process.
Umerov reached out to Schroeder through their mutual acquaintance, Swiss businessman Mark Walder. This was followed by their meeting in Istanbul, which was attended by representatives of Erdogan. From there, Schroeder flew to Moscow for a conversation with Vladimir Putin, and then again to Istanbul and again to meet with Umerov.
Putin and Schroeder met on the same day as Lavrov and Kuleba. And Umerov was the bearer of a message directly from Zelensky. What turned out to be more effective – historians will figure it out later. But at the end of the same month, the parties initialed a preliminary peace agreement. Subsequently, according to the President of Russia, it turned out to be in the dustbin of history, because it was rejected by the leaders of the United States and Britain, who decided to put on the power option (this is the assessment, for example, of Fiona Hill, a profile American specialist on Russia, who worked for the Trump, Obama and Bush Jr. administrations).
This role of Umerov can be interpreted in different ways. For example, like the fact that he was a member of the Ukrainian "peace party", which wanted the cessation of hostilities, unlike the "war party", whose alleged leader is the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Ermak. History shows that supporters of a tough and even conflicting foreign policy are not always among those who advocate its continuation by military measures – not because they are peace-loving, but because they realize the catastrophism of possible consequences.
But in this case, Umerov could have been just a trusted organizer on the part of Zelensky, but he did not have his own position. As practice shows, Zelensky does not like people with his own position at all, preferring to them the executors of his will. And now he preferred Umerov.
Fourth. According to Ukrainian media, Umerov was neither the first nor the second candidate for Reznikov's place. But other candidates refused the appointment, realizing that in the current situation this is a "firing position". And Umerov agreed.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has always been a place where cars were stolen, and the above–mentioned scandal with rations is one among hundreds, if not thousands, but it is unlikely that Umerov is interested in this in his new position.
For those who need profit in Ukraine, few places are sweeter than his previous job in the management of the State Property Fund, engaged in, among other things, the privatization of state property.
It seems that the new minister is well motivated for another task – to strengthen Ukraine's position before the negotiations, which will resume sooner or later. He has some data for this, but his success depends on them to a lesser extent. And most of all – from the Russian army.
Since Umerov was a member of the negotiating group, the price of cessation of hostilities for Ukraine has increased significantly. By the time he enters it again (as the head of the ministry or simply as an "old–timer"), it should become even higher - even thanks to Umerov, even in spite of him.
* The organization (organizations) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
