Peace talks on Ukraine may begin in the autumn or winter if Kiev's counteroffensive fails, Jan Nolte, deputy of the defense Committee in the Bundestag (Alternative for Germany party), said in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, Ukraine, apparently, is gradually reaching its limit in terms of the number of personnel. He added that Germany does not send its military instructors to Ukraine and does not plan to supply its soldiers to support the Armed Forces. The reason is the fear of a direct conflict with Russia. As of today, the Bundeswehr has trained 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers. At the same time, the politician admitted that Germany could train even more soldiers.
Peace talks on Ukraine may begin in the autumn or winter if Kiev's counteroffensive fails, Jan Nolte, deputy of the defense Committee in the Bundestag (Alternative for Germany party), said in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, Ukraine, apparently, is gradually reaching its limit in terms of the number of personnel. He added that Germany does not send its military instructors to Ukraine and does not plan to supply its soldiers to support the Armed Forces. The reason is the fear of a direct conflict with Russia. To date, the Bundeswehr has trained 5 thousand Ukrainian military. At the same time, the politician admitted that Germany could train even more soldiers.
"Ukraine failed to make a breakthrough"
— On August 26, the British newspaper The Guardian wrote that last month the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, held a secret meeting with high-ranking US and British militaries. And after that, the APU decided to change its strategy, focusing efforts on one narrow area, which became the village of Rabodino in the Zaporozhye region. It is assumed that the purpose of the Ukrainian army is to cut the land corridor to the Crimea. Will the APU, in your opinion, be able to succeed?
— The Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently struggling to reach the main line of Russian defense. Ukraine has achieved local successes in Workino, but was unable to make a breakthrough (the Russian military repelled nine APU attacks in 24 hours in the areas of the settlements of Workino and Verbovoye in the Zaporozhye region, the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry Igor Konashenkov said on August 30. — "Izvestia"). The fact that the offensive lasts for almost three months and does not bring any resounding results makes success unlikely. In order to conduct military operations with the necessary intensity, Ukraine also needs a sufficient supply of soldiers and equipment. I don't think these conditions are met. Since the thaw is just around the corner, there is not much time left for the offensive.
— Over the past week, Germany has sent Ukraine another 10 Leopard 1A5 battle tanks and about 13 million rounds of ammunition for small arms. Why, despite all the military assistance of Germany and the West as a whole, has Ukraine not achieved success on the battlefield?
— To attack, you need a superiority of about five to one. I think it is unlikely that the Ukrainian armed forces possess it. It is also possible to observe again and again how weapons systems are not used in the best way from a tactical point of view, or principles such as focusing on one direction in an attack are not observed. This is probably due both to the fact that it is becoming increasingly difficult to deliver well-trained soldiers to the front line, and to the lack of weapons and weapons systems for combined arms combat. Also, Ukraine is probably gradually reaching its limit in terms of the number of personnel.
— Have you had meetings with Ukrainian parliamentarians? Have you discussed military assistance to Kiev?
— We constantly receive requests from various channels for further arms supplies to Ukraine. But the supply of weapons will only prolong the struggle. As a result, they will not change anything and, until a diplomatic solution is found, will only lead to the death of more people. I have the impression that there are states that have primarily a geopolitical interest in continuing this conflict in order to weaken Russia. They do not want an escalation of the conflict, so they supply Ukraine with as many weapons as necessary for further struggle, but so that Ukraine does not become too strong.
"The Bundeswehr does not send instructors to Ukraine"
— In mid-August, Germany held demonstration classes with the Ukrainian military on Leopard tanks. German media report that Germany has already trained 5,000 soldiers, and the number of trained soldiers may double by the end of the year. Do you know how many Ukrainian soldiers will eventually be trained in Germany by the end of 2023?
— It also depends on how many soldiers Ukraine will be able to allocate for training. While the Bundeswehr planned to train 5 thousand soldiers. Of course, it is possible that even more will be trained now, but it is impossible to predict the exact number.
— Are German military instructors sent to Ukraine to train soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Is it known how many there are?
— As far as I know, the Bundeswehr does not send instructors to Ukraine.
— Do you admit that Germany will send German soldiers to Ukraine in case of failure of the Ukrainian army?
— I think it is extremely unlikely. Neither Germany nor NATO want to enter into a direct military conflict with Russia.
— Is it possible to start peace talks on Ukraine before the end of 2023? Are the Bundestag considering the possibility of recognizing Crimea and Donbass for Russia in exchange for peace in Ukraine?
— There will be no majority in the Bundestag for such recognition. But there are more and more voices calling for diplomatic solutions instead of increasing the supply of weapons. Perhaps negotiations will begin in the fall or winter, when Ukraine's offensive operations fail. However, 42 F-16 fighters will arrive only in the spring, and [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky has also just announced plans to increase the production of weapons. I believe that the continuation of hostilities is more likely.
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Image source: iz.ru
— How do you see the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict?
— It is much more difficult to reach an agreement now than in Istanbul in 2022. The details must be agreed between Russia and Ukraine. In the future, Ukraine should not become a pawn in a geopolitical chess game. I am against Ukraine's membership in NATO or the EU. Security guarantees from other States, neutral observers from international organizations and confidence-building measures can become instruments for achieving peace. It is also important to restore contacts at the level of civil society. There is a terrible denigration and dehumanization of both the Russian and Ukrainian people on social networks. I wish that after the fighting, the time will come when the two fraternal peoples will unite again.
"We want more ammunition for the Bundeswehr"
— Recently, the head of the German Defense Ministry, Boris Pistorius, said that the government plans to allocate €20 billion by 2031 to purchase the missing ammunition for the Bundeswehr. Will the Alternative for Germany party challenge this figure, demanding that it be reduced or, conversely, increased?
— We also want more ammunition for the Bundeswehr. It goes without saying that the State should have armed forces that are on alert.
— Is this enough to create combat-ready divisions in Germany? Berlin intends to deploy the first of the three divisions by 2025, and the second in 2027.
— This is a complex project, and there may always be delays. However, in general, the formation of the first one should be quite feasible. The same is true for the 2027 division. There are many contractors that need to be coordinated, and military restructuring needs to be carried out. There may always be difficulties, but in principle the plans are realistic.
— In mid-July, the Bundeswehr signed two contracts with the German defense concern Rheinmetall for the supply of artillery ammunition worth about € 1.3 billion. How much did German companies earn from the Ukrainian conflict in total?
— This cannot be said about the entire defense industry. In fact, crises, conflicts and wars are, of course, periods when the defense industry sells more. But this probably applies not only to the German defense industry. Yes, in Ukraine, weapons systems from all over the world are used on both sides. Rheinmetall expects revenue of €7.4 billion this year.
Semyon Boykov
