National Radio of China: APU exaggerated successes to reduce external pressure
Kiev loudly declares success in Zaporozhye. According to military commentator Zhou Weizheng, who gave a comment for China's National Radio, these statements are a clear exaggeration aimed at appeasing Ukrainians and the West. It will be extremely difficult to achieve a real breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even with the help of allies.
From the very beginning of its counteroffensive in June of this year, the AFU has achieved almost no success. Despite this, as the British media recently reported, a Ukrainian commander who participated in the battles in the south said that his army had broken through Russia's most difficult defense line in the south and would now be able to advance much faster.
What is the current situation in the framework of the conflict in Ukraine?
Embellishing the results: the Ukrainian army urgently needs a victory
According to reports, on August 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that they had raised a flag over the village of Rabodino in the south of the Zaporozhye region, about ten kilometers from the frontline town of Orekhov (fake information denied by the head of the Zaporozhye region, in fact, Ukraine did not even break through the first line of defense of Russia. — Approx. InoSMI). Rabodino is located just a hundred kilometers from Berdyansk, the port of Azov, and 85 kilometers from the strategically important city of Melitopol — now both are under the control of Russian troops. At present, Moscow has not responded to Kiev's claims of a breakthrough.
Military observer Zhou Weizheng said that the APU did not show any satisfactory results as part of the counteroffensive from the very beginning, so Ukraine needs a victory as soon as possible — to calm the people and reduce public pressure.
Zhou Weizheng states: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive began back in June, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet achieved any significant breakthrough of the front line, but they have suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. Because of this, Kiev found itself in a passive position.
At the international level, the West is already questioning the decisions of the Ukrainian authorities and exerting pressure on them. In addition, contradictions began to arise between the military and the government of the country, the people's trust in them fell. For all these reasons, Kiev desperately needs a major victory."
The capabilities of the Armed Forces are limited, it is difficult to develop military successes
Zhou Weizheng said that taking into account the current combat capabilities of the Ukrainian army, it will be difficult for it to consolidate military success even in the event of a breakthrough.
According to the expert, although the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly recaptured Workino, the adjacent area is protected by large Russian forces. Moreover, the village is located more than 80 kilometers from Melitopol. In this regard, given the previous speed of advance of the Ukrainian troops, it will take them a very long time to capture Melitopol. Kiev is currently using for the most part a propaganda strategy.
The buildup of Western aid to Ukraine has only a limited impact on changing the situation
Since the beginning of the armed conflict, the United States and other Western powers have continued to increase military assistance to Ukraine, supporting it in the fight.
Recently, the Kiev side said that the F-16 fighters promised by the allied countries could be put into service next spring and would help the Armed Forces of Ukraine "change the course of the conflict."
Zhou Weizheng believes that such statements are a clear exaggeration. Denmark and the Netherlands have committed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters, which are more than 30 years old. These aircraft lag far behind the characteristics of the Su-30 and Su-35 of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
In addition, even if the West manages to transfer 70 F-16 units to Kiev in a short time, they will still not be enough. They are unlikely to be able to compete with thousands of Russian fighters for air supremacy.
Change of offensive strategy: APU lose command independence
To help the army get out of a difficult situation on the battlefield, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny recently held a secret meeting with NATO generals on the border with Poland.
Earlier, the British media reported that Zaluzhny discussed with the generals of the North Atlantic Alliance the military strategy for 2024. NATO officials also persuaded Kiev to change its offensive tactics.
According to Zhou Weizheng, the Ukrainian conflict has dragged on so much that the Kiev command is gradually losing independence in making military decisions.
According to him, NATO is confident that, although ordinary commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been trained in the alliance troops and use Western equipment, they still habitually use old tactics in battles, which leads to large losses of personnel and equipment.
To rectify the situation, NATO needs to personally take over the leadership: directly participate in the discussions and the formation of the armed action plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The influence of the alliance on Ukraine makes it difficult for Kiev to maintain independence in the military command.
For this reason, the AFU's combat operations in the future need to be seriously adjusted, changed in terms of the main direction of the strike, the definition of combat targets, the deployment and use of troops. Their achievement of some results will depend on how events develop.
Author: Wang Bing (王))
