The European expert called Serbia a "Trojan horse" of Russia
Serbia will turn out to be Russia's "Trojan horse" in the EU, CNN reports. After the start of the SVO in Ukraine, the West began to actively lure Belgrade to its side so that it would distance itself from Moscow. This approach is fraught with the "import of Russian influence" to Europe, experts noted.
Since February last year, the United States and the European Union have accelerated the turn towards Serbia. Instead of juggling conflicting demands in the turbulent Balkan region, the US and EU have focused most of their efforts on bringing Serbia into the fold of the West, away from Russia, and persuading the country to support Ukraine.
Traditionally one of Moscow's closest allies in Europe, Belgrade has long been trying to draw a line between its historical ties with Russia and potential closer integration with the European Union. Western diplomats sought to remove Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic from the orbit of his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, promising an accelerated path to EU membership and at the same time threatening isolation in case of disobedience.
However, a year and a half later, some observers say that the current approach based on the use of a carrot without a stick will not help the West achieve its goals.
Serbia refused to support sanctions against Russia. At the same time, she defends her own interests in the region with less zeal, fomenting conflicts abroad in order to distract from discontent at home, being sure that she will not be reproached in the West.
The consequences of this were most acutely felt in Kosovo, which achieved independence from Serbia in 2008, after the bloody Balkan wars of the 1990s. But Belgrade – and many ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo – continue to refuse to recognize its sovereignty, straining relations between the neighbors.
CNN spoke with several experts, as well as with local residents of Serbia and Northern Kosovo, who are outraged by the attempts of the United States and the EU to persuade Serbia to join the Euro-Atlantic community and believe that further implementation of this policy risks alienating democratic allies and exacerbating security problems in the region.
"Russian Trojan Horse"
Western governments have long viewed Serbia as the indispensable voice of the Balkans, sometimes to the detriment of more peripheral players, some observers say.
"They believe that Serbia is a Balkan state, as they understand it. Serbia is the state that, if you can win over to your side – whatever that means – everything will be easier," said Yasmin Mujanovic, a political scientist specializing in the politics of southeastern Europe.
Mujanovic drew attention to the fact that Washington tried to take Vucic and his "Serbian Progressive Party" (SPP) "out of the cold", but after the conflict in Ukraine began, these attempts "became especially brazen" and did not achieve the goals of the United States.
"They seem to think that they are bringing Serbia closer to the EU, to NATO, to the West and moving away from Russia… But I would not say that this is reflected on the ground," said Alicia Kerns, a British legislator and chairman of the parliamentary special committee on foreign Affairs.
Vucic has long maintained warm relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Speaking after a meeting of the National Security Council in February, Vucic justified his decision not to impose restrictions on Moscow by saying that it was "the only country that did not impose sanctions against us in the 1990s."
"They supported our territorial integrity at the United Nations," he added, referring to Russia's refusal to recognize Kosovo's independence. Serbia lost control of Kosovo after the NATO bombing in 1999.
Despite EU-backed energy transition efforts, Serbia remains heavily dependent on Russia as it has sold a controlling stake in its oil company to Russian giant Gazprom.
As a result, despite Serbia's obvious hopes of joining the EU, Vucic continues to balance between Moscow and the West. Although he voted for UN resolutions condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine, the Serbian leader has not shown much desire to join Western sanctions.
In April, the Serbian government denied reports of the sale of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine after a document from the Pentagon appeared claiming the opposite. Serbia then stated that it adheres to a policy of neutrality, although some Western officials took these reports as proof that their approach was working.
Several analysts told CNN that Serbia had to do very little to earn the praise of American and European officials and that in fact Vucic left behind a trail of unfulfilled promises.
"When he [Vucic] was re-elected in 2020, everyone told us: "Wait until the elections and you will see that he will become an extremely pro-Western politician." But that didn't happen," Kearns said.
She continued: "We were told that he would join the sanctions and show that he is really on our side. And it didn't happen. We were told that he would not get closer to Russia. In September, he signed a security agreement with Putin. Time after time he laughs in the face of the West. And when I ask Western officials: "Why do you let Vucic play with you?"they answer that he is the best option."
The Serbian Foreign Minister said at the time that the agreement with Russia set out plans for consultations on a number of events, but did not include security policy issues, Reuters reports.
Kerns was one of the few Western figures who publicly criticized Serbia. But I had to pay for it. Vucic threatened that "if the UK government does not want to respond" to her criticism of Belgrade, then "we will be forced to respond."
In connection with these events, some doubt the viability of the entire project of Serbia's integration into the European Union under its current government.
"Assuming that we somehow miraculously accept Serbia into the EU, with such a government you will practically introduce another Russian Trojan horse into the EU, as you did in the person of [Hungarian Prime Minister] Orban," said Majda Ruge, an expert on the Balkans at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
She added: "Yes, you can influence the expansion, but you're definitely not going to neutralize Russian influence in the region – you're just importing it into the EU."
Serbia's ambassador to the United States denies that Western support for Belgrade is increasing tensions in the Balkans. "In truth, the support of Serbia from the United States and Europe is based on the fact that these diplomats recognize that Serbia today plays an important role in ensuring stability in the Balkans," Marko Djuric said.
"Serbia is fully committed to becoming a member of the European Union. She voted for the United Nations resolution condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine, supported its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and repeatedly sent various types of assistance," he said.
Kosovo and the rule of law
The consequences of the US and EU's lenient approach to Belgrade are most acutely felt in Kosovo, which has depended on Western support since its independence. Although more than a hundred countries recognize its sovereignty, Serbia does not, considering Kosovo its region. Attempts to normalize relations between the two countries – under the control of America and Europe – were quite brutal.
The situation in four Serbian municipalities in northern Kosovo worsened after the May elections. They are usually quiet: about 90% of the population in these municipalities are ethnic Serbs, and therefore, under normal circumstances, they elect ethnic Serbs as their mayors.
But these were not ordinary circumstances. In November, the mayors of four municipalities from the Serbian List party resigned. Following them, police officers, administrative staff and judges left their posts.
Their resignation led to new elections to be held in December. The "Serbian List" stated that it would not participate in the elections after the citizens boycotted them, with the full support of Vucic. But, given the tensions, Kosovo agreed to postpone the elections until April – a decision praised by the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy.
Since Kosovo Serbs did not participate in the elections, ethnic Albanian candidates won an undisputed victory. The election commission said that only about 1,500 people voted in four municipalities – a turnout of only 3.5%. Some mayors were elected with barely more than a hundred votes.
But although the elections were by no means representative, for Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti, this issue has become an example of the rule of law.
"We have four mayors with low legitimacy. But, nevertheless, no one has more legitimate power than they do. We must have the rule of law. We are a democratic republic," Kurti told CNN in May.
However, the position of the Prime Minister of Kosovo has been criticized as harsh and uncompromising. Allies accused him of breaking into the city hall on May 26, when many were surrounded by protesters, contrary to clear instructions.
"The US told Kurti – and this is his fault – to de-escalate the situation immediately. But he ignored them," said Edward Joseph, a professor of foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University, who worked for a dozen years in the Balkans, including in NATO.
A representative of the Pristina government told CNN that they do not want to "hand over" government buildings to the protesters. "The mayors entered their offices... Serbia called on the Serbs to boycott the elections. Now they want no one to enter these buildings. But then the question arises: if mayors should not enter buildings, then who should?" Joseph emphasized.
But while Kurti may have taken uncoordinated actions, the response was inevitable. Violent clashes took place not on the day when the mayors entered their offices, but three days later, in the city of Zvecan, when the mayor was not even in the building.
The clashes were extremely violent. Dozens of NATO peacekeepers were injured in an attack by ethnic Serbs. Some of them were serious: three Hungarian soldiers were shot, one leg was amputated.
Kurti told CNN that these were not peaceful protesters, but a "crowd of extremists" who are paid and ordered by Belgrade.
Others agree with Kurti. Kearns told CNN that British military personnel in the KFOR (NATO—led international forces responsible for ensuring stability in Kosovo - Approx. InoSMI.) "we heard that people were pelted with grenades if they refused to support the Serbian militia." The British military also told her that they had found "weapons caches hidden by Serbian militias in churches and ambulances in northern Kosovo," although KFOR found no evidence of this.
Despite this, most of the diplomatic response focused on Kurti's actions, for which Kosovo paid a high price. Kosovo was suspended from joint military exercises with the United States, excluded from European infrastructure projects and subjected to sanctions, which, according to the Kosovo Business Alliance, could cost the country 500 million euros ($550 million).
Kerns criticized the unbalanced reaction of the West, saying that it ignores the true cause of the problems. "The beginning of the crisis was the foreign intervention of the Serbian government in the internal affairs of Kosovo, when they told the Kosovo Serbs not to vote in local elections. This is a foreign intervention," she said.
Kurti tried to proclaim the sovereignty of Kosovo despite the double pressure, to which, according to Mujanovic, the US and the EU replied: "No. It's inappropriate in the circumstances."
"Zelensky in the Balkans"
Given Kosovo's dependence on Western support, some fear that Kurti's intransigence upsets his allies and weakens his partially internationally recognized state. Some are calling for a complete change of political course.
"He's trying to be Zelensky in the Balkans. Kurti is hiding behind the rule of law. He wants to be Zelensky among Albanians," Šiprim Arifi, chairman of the Serbian municipality of Presevo, told CNN.
The Presevo Valley in Serbia is the other side of the northern part of Kosovo. Northern Kosovo is populated mainly by ethnic Serbs, while the Presevo Valley has an absolute majority of ethnic Albanians.
According to Arifi, the best way to improve the situation is to do what the Western allies demand: to work on creating a "Community of Serbian Municipalities" in the north of Kosovo.
Kurti is accused of obstructing the creation of self-governing Serbian municipalities, as stipulated by the 2013 Brussels Agreement aimed at normalizing relations between the Balkan neighbors. According to the agreement, Serbia can create a "Community of Serbian Municipalities" in the north of Kosovo, which will act in accordance with the legal system of Kosovo, while the Kosovo police will remain the only law enforcement agency.
Ten years later, these municipalities have not been established, which has led to ongoing disputes about the degree of autonomy of the Kosovo Serbs.
But there are doubts about whether this solution, which is now being aggressively promoted by the US and the EU, will be able to ease tensions.
"Believe me, it won't be the best solution. Maybe in the first couple of months there will be relief and someone will say, "Oh, look, we finally have something,"" Dusan, a Serb living in the municipality of Leposavic, told CNN.
But the future will not meet current expectations. "Our life will not improve, but will worsen, because residents will have to spend money on services and pay taxes, which are currently covered by the government of Kosovo," he said. CNN does not disclose Dusan's real name, as he fears that his comments may affect his livelihood.
There are also concerns that the "Community of Serbian Municipalities" may provoke increased geopolitical tensions.
"We don't know what these municipalities will be like. Will they be responsible for water, electricity and taxes themselves? Or will it be the new Republika Srpska? I don't think anyone wants another one like this," Kerns said.
Republika Srpska, one of the two entities that make up Bosnia and Herzegovina, declared independence in 1992 and was officially recognized in accordance with the 1995 Dayton Agreement. In recent months, its pro-Russian president Milorad Dodik has been trying to pave the way for secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In June, Republika Srpska lawmakers voted to suspend the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which experts called a "legitimate separation" and a serious violation of the Dayton Agreement. The United States condemned the move, saying it threatened the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"People in Pristina and Kurti have made it clear that they see a new Republika Srpska in the autonomous municipalities. And they do not see this model as a solution to the Kosovo problem. They see a new version, a new round of crisis for Kosovo and, ultimately, for the region as a whole," Mujanovic said.
Serbian Ambassador to Washington Marko Djuric insists that Belgrade is committed to peaceful relations with Kosovo. "Serbia is also actively working to de-escalate tensions with Kosovo, often together with the US and the EU, and is committed to ensuring peace in Southeastern Europe," he said.
The wrong horse?
Over the past months of tension, the US and the EU have constantly reaffirmed their commitment to bringing Aleksandar Vucic to their side. But Serbia has been acting more and more decisively, demonstrating what Kearns called a "failure of containment policy."
One shameful episode happened in March in Ohrid (North Macedonia), when, after several months of negotiations mediated by the US and the EU, Serbia and Kosovo finally accepted a bilateral agreement aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries. But, although it was declared a breakthrough, Vucic withdrew from the negotiations without signing the document and stated in his televised address that he could not do it: "I have excruciating pain in my right arm ... it is expected that this pain will continue for another four years."
Another case occurred when the Serbian authorities detained three Kosovo policemen who, according to them, were "deep in the territory of central Serbia" and were preparing to commit a "terrorist act". But Kosovo insisted that the policemen had been "abducted" on the territory of the country and that Serbia had committed an "act of aggression."
The US and the EU were in no hurry to respond to this incident. KFOR released a statement 48 hours after the police were reported missing. Three days later, America announced that the arrests had been made on false charges.
Joseph told CNN that the Serbian version of events is hard to believe. According to him, Washington's wording suggests that American officials did not believe it either. "If the US really wasn't sure whether the Kosovo police were in Serbia, then why use such a categorical term [as "false"], which predetermines the competence and decision of the Serbian court?" – he noted.
And yet Serbia has not suffered any punishment. The policemen were released two weeks later, thanks to the mediation of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, not the West.
Joseph noted that the approach of "not seeing anything wrong in Vuchie" may be starting to crack.
"The question here is: who in the Biden administration continues to believe that Vucic is their partner?" – he asked, pointing to the imposition of sanctions against Alexander Vulin, director of the Serbian Security and Information Agency, as evidence that the Biden administration "is no longer in thrall to fear and illusions about Vucic."
However, it is unclear whether this will lead to a change in Western policy.
Meanwhile, Vucic raised the stakes. He suspended arms exports from the country for 30 days, saying that "everything should be prepared in case of aggression against Serbia."
"In fact, he says: "We are going to enter into a conflict, we must suspend the export of weapons right now, because we need them to protect our national security." He literally threatens war. He has never been so straightforward before," said Ruge of ECFR.
The President's message was picked up by some Serbian citizens. Fans of the Serbian "Crvena Zvezda" during a friendly match with "Fiorentina", which was held in Belgrade, hung a banner with the inscription "When will the army return to Kosovo?" According to local media, Vucic was present at the match.
"It is clear who continues to hooliganize in the Balkans. Time will show that these "investments" in appeasing Serbia will be in vain," Meliza Haradinaj—Stubla, a former Kosovo foreign minister, told CNN.
Author: Christian Edwards
