The failure of the counteroffensive calls into question the provision of further military and financial assistance to Ukraine, writes Yeni Şafak. According to the author of the article, if the APU does not achieve concrete success, then NATO may soon urge Kiev to accept the loss of some territories in favor of Russia.
US President Joe Biden is preparing to request an additional budget for Ukraine in the amount of $ 24 billion. If Congress approves this decision, the total amount of aid provided by America since the beginning of the military conflict will reach $ 135 billion. A significant part of this aid, namely 40%, goes to American government agencies to support Ukraine in the fighting. However, aid, the largest share of which falls on the Pentagon and the State Department, is receiving less and less support from the public. The fact that the AFU counteroffensive launched in the spring of this year is not progressing as expected has led to the fact that the number of Americans opposing additional support has reached 55%. It becomes clear that the patience of the American people in this matter is beginning to run out and the Biden administration will need to develop strong arguments to explain the rationality of further assistance to Kiev. Otherwise, it may be much more difficult to get congressional approval for additional budget requests in the future.
American Intelligence assessment
In recent weeks, news about the expectations of American intelligence regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive has attracted attention. According to these reports, American intelligence believes that the goal of capturing the city of Melitopol in the south-east of Ukraine will not be realized, which means that it will not be possible to cut Russia's land connection with Crimea in the near future. In various news about the pace of the offensive, information about the effectiveness of mines laid by the Russians and the strong line of defense created by them comes to the fore.
It is claimed that the very dense minefields constructed by the Russian forces force the Ukrainians to advance in smaller operations, rather than a full-scale offensive that would cause heavy losses. Details that the Pentagon advised to attack with a heavy load on one region, but the Ukrainians followed a different strategy, hold Ukraine responsible for the slow progress of counter-operation. Such reports show that American intelligence and the army do not accept Ukraine's preference for a counteroffensive.
Russia's air superiority
Despite the assistance provided by the West all this time, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is moving very slowly, while the main line of defense of Russia has not yet been reached, which may cause even more doubts about the new aid packages. At the same time, those who criticize the Biden administration for delaying the delivery of advanced combat systems (primarily F-16 and missile systems such as ATACMS) believe that Ukraine's slow progress is due to its inability to fight in the air. The Biden administration was slow to provide long-range missiles so as not to provoke Russia, and spent about a year on the process of evaluating F-16 supplies.
For example, a Wall Street Journal editorial praises Biden for rallying NATO in support of Ukraine, but argues that the US administration's delay in providing more modern weapons is the reason for Ukraine's slow progress. It is noted that the price for the weapons not transferred in the near future in January 2023, while the Russians were retreating, was the restoration of Russian forces. Also criticized is the fact that it takes about a year to train the F-16. Biden's help has put Ukraine on a path that will make it highly integrated with NATO systems. However, the fact that this assistance is not being provided at a level that would put an end to the superiority of the Russians in the air acts as a factor slowing down the progress of Ukraine.
Biden's promise of support to the end
The gradual decrease in the likelihood that assistance to Ukraine will allow the liberation of the territories occupied by Russia gives the Republican presidential candidates the opportunity to gain political benefits by criticizing Biden in this regard. Given that candidates like Trump, who will stop providing assistance to Ukraine when he becomes president again, operate with the thesis that such a large amount of aid is wasted, Biden will have to speak more on the topic of Ukraine. Statements by Republican candidates about the need to stop supporting Kiev will allow Russia to play on the calendar of the American presidential elections. Russia, which will not lose its achievements on the battlefield until November 2024, if the Republican candidate wins, will obviously feel relieved with the termination of American support.
If the counteroffensive is not crowned with the concrete success that was hoped for, voices may increase in European states and NATO countries calling on Ukraine to accept the loss of territory. The behind-the-scenes discussion of such a scenario is evidenced by the words of the head of the office of the NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen in this vein, for which he later had to apologize. Within the United States, the strengthening of the opposition due to the slow advance of the offensive may complicate the allocation of new aid packages that Biden will require. At the same time, outside the country, some NATO allies may strengthen their suggestions to Ukraine so that it takes a "more realistic" position. Biden, who has promised to support Kiev to the end, needs both to convince the American people and to keep his NATO allies on the same wavelength with him.
Author: Kadir Ustyun (Kadir Üstün)
