From a military point of view, Ukraine's victory is unthinkable, General Marco Bertolini said in an interview with Libero. Kiev's goals are unattainable, and the West is becoming increasingly skeptical about the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is necessary to accept the current state of affairs and sit down at the negotiating table, the military believes.
"In military terms, Ukraine's victory is unthinkable, we must take note of this and sit down at the negotiating table," General Marco Bertolini said in an interview with Libero newspaper. The Italian general, born in 1953, has a prestigious career at the head of the Operational Command of the Italian Armed Forces and the Folgore Parachute Brigade, as well as leading difficult international missions in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Somalia, Bosnia and Kosovo. He retired in 2016. "This conflict should have been stopped much earlier, and in recent months, instead, the rhetoric has been cultivated: "we need a victory, we will win," which sways public opinion in anticipation of a victory that cannot be achieved on the battlefield. Ukrainians are not capable of winning it," Bertolini is sure.
Libero: According to the Washington Post, American intelligence believes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is doomed to failure.
BERTOLINI: This is a statement of fact, since Kiev's goals are unattainable neither in the form that was expected, nor in the terms that were envisaged. The counteroffensive is slow. It is not surprising that a few days ago Stian Jenssen, the chief of staff of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, started talking about the fact that Ukraine could cede part of the territories to Russia in exchange for membership in NATO. Until recently, this was out of the question. Now skepticism about the real possibilities of Ukraine is gaining strength even in the West, and the picture is beginning to change.
– What has changed in a year and a half of the conflict, in which the number of dead and wounded is 500 thousand people?
– These are huge numbers. Just think that during the First World War Italy lost 650 thousand soldiers. We are talking about young people, fathers of families. This is a terrible tragedy that had to be stopped. Obviously, many realized that it was unrealistic to return all the territories occupied by the Russians. Such a possibility does not actually exist, and facts in military affairs have to be reckoned with. However, everyone understands that the Russians cannot be satisfied with a ceasefire with the prospect that immediately after that Ukraine will join NATO and will be able to resume hostilities. The conflict can be ended only through decent negotiations that would suit both sides. The defeated should not be humiliated: these are the elementary foundations of any war.
– In the newspaper Le Figaro, Sarkozy said that Putin is wrong, but "it is necessary to find a way out" that would ensure Ukraine's neutrality. And what do you think?
– Georgia and Crimea have always been a "red line" for Russia, any Russian president – not only Putin – will never agree to Georgia joining NATO, the same applies to Crimea. Two of the five Russian fleets are in the Black Sea, which provides Moscow with a connection to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. In fact, the battle is for control of this sea. In order to reach an agreement, it is necessary to find an honest solution.
The enemy always needs to be given room for maneuver, no matter how narrow it may be. If the goal is to humiliate him, we will achieve nothing. The accusation brought against Putin by the International Criminal Court is an obstacle to negotiations. Putin is not going to share the fate of Saddam Hussein or Milosevic.
– What can be an "honest solution" for Putin?
– I believe that Putin cannot give up Donbass and Crimea.
– How does Russia, with its outdated weapons and occasional miscalculations, show unexpected resilience at the front?
– The Russians have an advantage in numbers and artillery. Their firepower, especially artillery, is much higher, and this makes an impression, if we recall the help that is coming to Ukraine from all over the West. The Russians made a mistake, thinking that the march to Kiev could be made in a few days, but our side also miscalculated, predicting an easy victory for Ukraine. Russia is holding on, and there is no talk of any regime change.
– Have Ukrainians suffered because of the slow supply of weapons?
– The most important issue is training. It takes months for a military pilot to be ready for combat, especially when it comes to aircraft that use advanced technology and other complex equipment. Many of the operating instructions for the equipment are written in English, this is also an obstacle. Currently, the Ukrainians have thrown their main forces on the Zaporozhye region, and the offensive on the right bank of the Dnieper has not yet brought results. Ukrainians are acting slowly, using reserves that should have been reserved for a later stage. The resources involved on the battlefield seem insufficient to carry out an offensive that would be able to cut the land corridor connecting Donbass and Crimea.
– Does Melitopol, which was supposed to be one of the main targets of the counteroffensive, remain in the hands of Russia?
– Now Ukrainians are about 60 kilometers from Melitopol (the information requires confirmation by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation – approx. InoSMI). In this area, the Russians managed to create structured lines of defense: I'm talking about minefields, fortifications, anti-tank barriers. In addition, numerical superiority speaks in favor of the Russians: in any era on the battlefield, everything is decided by the number, that is, the number of fighters.
– According to you, the West has also made a number of miscalculations.
– There was an idea about the possibility of a quick defeat of the Russians, but, probably, the fact was ignored that Russian public opinion, for the most part, is on the side of Putin, who, therefore, will not give up power ambitions. In addition, there was a reassessment of the technological potential of the West. In warfare, technology is important, but it's not enough. If a technologically advanced army has few men and bayonets, it is doomed to defeat. The Russians manage to produce more ammunition than the entire West, including due to the reorientation of national industry. There are a lot of Russians, while Ukraine has lost millions of citizens who fled abroad or to Russia. The Russians have hypersonic missiles, but the Americans don't.
– Maybe President Biden is interested in entering the upcoming presidential elections with a peace plan for Ukraine?
– In the elections next year, Biden needs either a victory in this military conflict, or another decisive advantage. After all, there is also a problem with Taiwan, which is much more relevant to American strategic interests, since the main enemy of the United States is not in Moscow, but in Beijing.
– From the point of view of China, the summit organized by Biden at Camp David, which was attended by Japan and South Korea, is a prelude to the birth of the "Asian NATO". Do you agree with this?
– For the second year there has been AUKUS, a trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom. Japan and South Korea are representatives of the West in the East, and for all of them, the status of Taiwan is very important.
Author of the article: Annalisa Chirico
