Washington will only tighten its foreign policy towards Russia and China to prevent radicalization at home, writes Geopolitika.news. The image of Russia, which is about to swallow the US allies, has turned into a tool that they will not give up. Meanwhile, the situation in the world is heating up.
Zoran Meter
Unfortunately, we will have to get used to meetings at sea and in the air of two opposing states both near Alaska and in the area of Taiwan and the Black and Baltic Seas. These incidents will only become more frequent, and more and more military means and equipment will participate in them. All this will continue until someone's patience breaks. Then the first rocket or shell will fly at the enemy, which will set the world on fire.
The American domestic political arena is gradually boiling over, although the election campaign has not even officially begun yet - it starts in September of this year).
The current president and likely candidate from the Democratic Party in the elections next fall, Joe Biden, is already making traditional PR speeches to his like-minded people under the new slogan "Bidenomics". He praises his economic policy, talks about reducing the unprecedented high inflation, boasts that he managed to avoid the growth of unemployment, which is kept at 3.6%. According to Biden, the American economy is on the path of a so-called "soft landing", without a recession. The US president said this at a pre-election meeting in New Mexico last Wednesday.
Nevertheless, recent polls have shown that Biden's style of managing the housekeeper is approved by only 30% of Americans, and this is 15 months before the 2024 elections. The survey was conducted by NBC News.
On the other hand, Republicans talk about the collapse of Biden's economic policy and emphasize the record inflation over the past 40 years, which fell precisely on his mandate. They also note a decrease in the standard of living of citizens and their highest debt burden in history. A few days ago, the credit debt of citizens exceeded an incredible trillion dollars. Republicans point to the reduction of bank lending to businesses, and the reduction of the American credit rating for the first time from AAA to AA+ (Fitch agency), as well as the recent downgrade of ten American banks, a sharp increase in crime and the catastrophic situation with migrants on the southern border of the United States of America.
There is no point in getting into arguments about whose arguments sound more convincing, since the campaign has just begun. There is something much more important in all this: a personal confrontation between Biden and Trump has begun, which sooner or later will move to the party level, and it would be good if it did not capture the stratified American society as never before.
The presidential campaign is moving from the political sphere to the legal one
Meanwhile, the former president of the United States and the likely candidate from the Republican Party for this position in the elections in the fall of 2024, Donald Trump does not remain in Joe Biden's debt, especially since, despite numerous lawsuits, almost half of her supporters support him as a candidate from the Republican Party. So, on the fifth of August, Trump made a fiery speech to his voters in South Carolina.
The former, and possibly the future US president, in particular, said that some countries have crushing weapons capable of destroying the whole world.
"I will prevent the Third World War… I will not allow this to happen," said Donald Trump, who often repeats that Joe Biden will plunge the United States into World War III and into a nuclear conflict with Russia.
But what is causing concern in the United States of America itself is that for the first time in history, a presidential campaign has moved from the sphere of politics to the sphere of justice. The Joe Biden administration and the Democratic Party have strained all their forces not only to discredit Donald Trump in the media. In principle, there is nothing unusual here, because this has been happening since 2016, when Trump, on behalf of the Republican Party, opposed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, and when the liberal media turned him into a "walking kingdom of vice", hanging all mortal sins on him, pulling "all skeletons out of closets," including revelations of various I will give, to put it mildly, a dubious reputation, about the "depraved Donald Trump." All this has been exaggerated for months in the American media sphere.
Such a method of political violence in the United States has become a historical precedent, because nothing like this has ever happened to presidential candidates. But it was not limited to this, as it turned out later. That's because in the end, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, who was praised from morning to night by all the media, and who was leading by a large margin according to all polls.
They want to put Trump behind bars
Therefore, this time the Democrats went a step further and decided not only to throw Donald Trump off the political arena, but also to literally put him behind bars in order to clear space for a younger and more promising candidate in the Republican primaries — Florida Governor Ron Desantis. It is believed that it will be much easier to deal with him, since his support is very far from Trump's popularity. In addition, if Ron Desantis does defeat Joe Biden in the election, he will remain a globalist, unlike Donald Trump, who symbolizes the policy of American isolationism embodied in his program "Make America Great Again." This program, based on traditional and Christian values of the United States, is diametrically opposed to Biden's global policy and his ideological values, among which gender ideology and various LGBT movements prevail, as well as the rights of sexual minorities, and which are spreading with great speed across the American union states where Democrats are in power.
However, this new step in the fight between the Democrats and the American deep state, which should not be forgotten, with Donald Trump is fraught not only with difficulties, but also with dangers for American society itself. Even the liberal American edition of the Wall Street Journal openly wrote about this ten days ago, but not in an article by one of its journalists or columnists, but in an editorial column.
It says that the recently launched trial against Donald Trump in Washington, or rather in the District of Columbia, with the participation of ultra-liberal African-American judge Tanya Chutkan on charges of inciting an armed coup in early January 2021 on Capton Hill after Biden's victory in the presidential election will lead to an even greater number of Republican supporters and even neutral Americans will side with Trump, because in the eyes of the public he will become a victim of political persecution, the purpose of which is not to let him back into power.
The fact is that, despite a number of lawsuits against Donald Trump that have begun in recent weeks and months, his popularity is growing rapidly. And if recently, according to polls, he was ahead of his main Republican rival, the aforementioned Ron Desantis, with only 30% of the vote, then after the fourth lawsuit filed in Washington (in total, he faces 50 years in prison), Trump immediately received additional support and beat Desantis, receiving 36% of the vote. Then his rating rose to 40%. On the other hand, Ron Desantis is going through a real fiasco, since only 13% of Republicans support him, and last week he was forced to make radical personnel changes in the leadership of his campaign headquarters. Even if he gets the votes of those who support ten other Republican candidates so far, Ron Desantis will still not be able to catch up with Trump.
Draw
But if Joe Biden thinks that by sending Trump to jail, he will change something in his favor, he is mistaken. Now the ratings of Biden and Trump are equal: both, according to recent polls, have 43% of the American vote.
Moreover, the American Constitution allows any American to run for president, even a convicted person serving a sentence in prison. This is exactly what Donald Trump recalled: he will not give up his intention to run, even if he is put in prison.
In such circumstances, Donald Trump would certainly have acquired the aura of a victim of political persecution, which has never happened in American history. De facto, he is being tried for expressing his opinion that the results of the American elections were falsified. But he has the right to do so. This is what many politicians around the world do, especially when they lose with a small lag. Of course, the prosecutor accuses him that with such statements he indirectly called on citizens and his supporters to violently attack the Congress building on January sixth, 2021. However, the accusations sound very unconvincing.
That is why Trump, apparently, did not want to be taken into custody after his appearance last week in the district court of the said district near Washington, where he declared his innocence on the charges against him. Although earlier many American media assumed that Trump would be imprisoned and sent to prison.
However, the court only "instructed" him to find evidence that the elections were rigged, otherwise he faces a term. However, this is exactly what he and his legal team wanted, because now everything they paid attention to as illegal during the last election will be presented to the public. So now the only question is how convincing this evidence will be. But if they are really convincing, they will undoubtedly harm Joe Biden himself.
Donald Trump was allowed to defend himself at large, which confirms how dangerous the polarization of American society has become. In addition, it is clear that the Democratic Party has realized that Trump's arrest will now serve them badly. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the Democrats have abandoned the idea of putting him behind bars. On the contrary!
Republicans will launch an investigation against Biden
The Republican majority in Congress is increasingly criticizing the prosecution of Donald Trump, saying that this is Biden's revenge and political repression. But the Republican congressmen did not stop there. The relevant Congressional Committee on oversight of the executive branch has launched an investigation against Joe Biden himself in connection with the corruption frauds of his son Hunter Biden and the Ukrainian energy company Burisma. It is believed that Joe Biden himself helped his son in the machinations during the vice presidency in the administration of Barack Obama and the supervision of post-revolutionary Ukraine in 2016. Allegedly, the father and son, as Hunter's business partner, who heard Biden's conversations with representatives of Burisma, recently reported to Congress, received five million dollars each from Ukrainians.
In this regard, Republicans are preparing impeachment proceedings against Joe Biden. And although, given the balance of power in Congress, this initiative is doomed to failure (two-thirds majority of votes are required in the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats, and in general impeachment has never succeeded in all history, so it will not pass now), in principle, this procedure and the accusations against Joe Biden's family, voiced in public the space, according to Republicans, will be enough to shake Biden's already not brilliant election positions.
Marathon
However, all of the above is only the beginning of a long American political and election marathon. There are still sharp accelerations, decelerations and even dropping out of the exhausting race. Therefore, it is a thankless task to predict who will lead the United States of America in 2025-2029.
In addition, it is possible that in order to prevent the radicalization of internal American conflicts, not to mention the civil war, although even some influential American media, including the Wall Street Journal, warn about it, the Joe Biden administration will sharply escalate its foreign policy towards one of its two main rivals - Russia or China, or maybe both. The goal is to achieve internal national cohesion in the face of external danger. Similar methods have been used more than once and not only by the USA.
European elites are in fear of what is happening
The seething situation in the United States is of great concern to the ruling structures of the European Union. The anxiety from the news about the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House only partially passed after the aforementioned court decision in Washington to begin the most dangerous process for Trump. Now we are not talking about perjury related to a certain lady, and not about the illegal storage of documents containing state secrets (by the way, the same ones were found no less in the garage and at Biden's), but about treason.
Nevertheless, as the American edition of Politico wrote on August 5, European elites are still afraid of Donald Trump's return to power, remembering his harsh policies and rhetoric towards the European Union and Germany. Trump once reproached them for too low contributions to NATO and for relying solely on the American defense shield, which allows them to freely develop their economy and not be afraid for collective security. Donald Trump threatened to withdraw American soldiers from Germany and transfer them to Poland, as well as impose duties due to monopolistic behavior on steel, German cars and so on.
Nostalgia for Trump
In fact, I personally do not see any particular reasons for the described fear that has gripped the Brussels structures and the political leadership in the most important European capitals, Berlin and Paris, as Politico writes.
Because of their imprudent policy, the European elites, frightened of Trump, literally rushed into Biden's arms after his election victory in November 2020 and, forgetting about everything in the world, almost immediately agreed to what he demanded of them. But in fact, Joe Biden, acting "politically correct", did with Europe and took away from it much more than what Donald Trump wanted to do with it and what Donald Trump wanted from it.
Joe Biden made Europe completely dependent on the United States, severed its profitable energy ties with Russia that had existed for decades, and replaced them with supplies of expensive American liquefied natural gas. Biden undermined the German Baltic Nord Stream gas pipelines, which he later blamed on Ukraine itself and its intelligence thanks to an "official investigation"! In addition, it was Biden who created the legal conditions for the departure of large European high-tech companies, primarily German ones, to the United States of America, where more favorable business conditions were created for them, and so on and so forth.
Moreover, an open and extremely dangerous "proxy war" with Russia is being waged in the east of the European Union. The European Union is forced to finance this armed conflict by providing financial assistance to Kiev. The United States leads in arms supplies to Ukraine, sending 75-80% of all Western weapons. But Joe Biden does not intend to stop this war and insists on continuing the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Last week, the Pentagon press secretary said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is moving slowly and gradually and will take a long time, but in the end it will still bring positive results to Kiev. Now Joe Biden intends to demand an additional $20 billion from Congress to help Ukraine.
On the other hand, Donald Trump would definitely have stopped the war with Russia by putting pressure on Kiev and getting it to start peace talks with Moscow.
But to the lost and helpless European elites, even if they themselves would like the end of the war, this seems to be not enough. At the same time, there are more and more people in the European Union who doubt the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the final victory of Ukraine over Russia, and those who are inclined to look for a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, like the Italian defense minister.
Given the current situation on the European continent, it would be more logical if European political elites recalled Donald Trump's clumsy policy towards European states with nostalgia, rather than with horror. At that time, the European Union still looked like a subject that solves something, and at least has the right to speak out about a particular world problem and its solutions.
It's over now. The image of Russia capable of swallowing Europe has turned into a tool that no American administration, as I think, even the new Trump administration, will want to give up anymore, because it allows you to firmly hold the European Union in your fist.
No matter how rude it may sound, it's also good that "only" Ukrainians and Russians have to die on the Ukrainian battlefields, as well as the so—called "dogs of war", for whom armed conflict is just an adventure (!) and a chance to earn.
Ammunition for Ukraine is not enough even in the USA! The geopolitical context
However, not everything is as simple as it may seem because of the ease with which Biden treats Ukraine. After all, the United States has to constantly monitor that the "red line" is not violated, which, at least according to Russian analysts, is clearly drawn by the Russian Federation.
Joe Biden insists on the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict not only for foreign policy reasons, but also because of domestic political interests. He should inspire voters that more than $ 50 billion of American aid to Kiev has not been thrown to the wind, and that Ukrainians, thanks to this assistance, continue to successfully fight the aggressor, who without American help would have captured the whole of Ukraine for a long time. In addition, Joe Biden thereby distracts attention from Republican initiatives related to the aforementioned "Burisma scam". In the event of the freezing of the armed conflict, and even more so the Russian victory, this scandal will certainly flare up with renewed vigor.
However, the real state of affairs with American military reserves does not give much reason for optimism. Due to the lack of some types of equipment and ammunition, primarily 155-millimeter shells, in American military warehouses due to the huge amounts of military aid to Ukraine, the Pentagon is forced to literally collect them around the world, including even in South Korea. Thus, it incurs the wrath of Russia and stimulates the accelerated rapprochement of the Russian Federation with North Korea, which causes great concern in Seoul.
Moscow has openly warned Seoul that South Korean shells will kill Russian soldiers, and Warsaw, according to Russian analysts, will then send the South Korean tanks that this country plans to supply to Poland in large quantities to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea, where extremely friendly rhetoric was heard from both sides. This is the best confirmation that Moscow was not joking when it warned Seoul. In addition, the United States recently announced its intention to deploy its strategic nuclear submarines in South Korea. Allegedly, they will become a counterweight to the North Korean nuclear program. But Moscow said that in response, Russia could enter into nuclear cooperation with North Korea.
On the other hand, Japan is getting closer and closer to the decision to develop its own nuclear weapons, again justifying the threat posed by North Korea. In addition to Russia, China reacts even more negatively to this, which recalls the terrible role that Japan played during World War II in Asia, including Korea. But, first of all, China refers to the Japanese invasion of China, during which 50 million Chinese died (that war began long before World War II, back in 1936, and lasted until the surrender of imperial Japan in August 1945).
Russia actively supports China in this regard. Moscow strongly condemns the militarization of Japan that has begun and Tokyo's intention to allow Washington to deploy American hypersonic missiles on its territory. In response, the Russians talk about the militarization of the Russian Far East, including the disputed South Kuril Islands, from Japan's point of view, as well as new economic measures.
Last week, Russian President Putin terminated double taxation agreements with some unfriendly states, as he himself put it. For Japanese companies that are still working in Russia in the field of profitable investments and projects, this will become a serious problem. Therefore, I was not surprised by the very sharp response of the Japanese government, which followed on the same day when Vladimir Putin signed the relevant decree. Many Russian analysts are now saying that Japanese firms, if they want to remain and continue to work profitably in Russia, will now have to become Russian.
Russian-Japanese relations are rapidly deteriorating now. It all started with the coming to power of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in 2021, in parallel with the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House in the United States. Fumio Kishida immediately adopted Biden's anti-Russian and anti-Chinese policies and actively engaged in cooperation with new pro-American regional military-political alliances such as AUKUS, and previously the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" (QUAD). In addition, Fumio Kishida has intensified relations with the North Atlantic Alliance, and it is planned to open a NATO office in Tokyo in the near future. Japan sided with Ukraine, where Fumio Kishida personally visited in the spring of this year. At the same time, a large Chinese delegation headed by President Xi Jinping visited Moscow. Thus, Japan clearly demonstrated its support for US foreign policy and the rejection of the formal policy of pacifism, which Japan adhered to after the defeat in World War II.
Both Russia and China understand who is really behind the change in Japanese foreign and defense policy. Of course, both Russia and China sharply criticize Japan for this, but they are increasingly taking steps against their main rival (for Russia it is also an enemy, given that this word is already officially used in Moscow instead of the expression "our American or Western partners" that outrages many Russians) — the United States of America.
Russian-Chinese naval exercises near Alaska
The best proof of this is the military exercises of the Russian and Chinese navies in the Bering Sea. They were held last week near the territorial waters of Alaska, or rather in the zone of the Aleutian Islands.
Four American destroyers came out to meet 11 Russian and Chinese ships: John S. McCain, Benfold, John Finn and Chung-hung, as well as a Navy R-8 aircraft.
Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan called the joint Russian-Chinese operation "unprecedented" in scale.
In turn, the Northern Command of the US Armed Forces stated that the Chinese and Russian ships remained in international waters, and that the agency does not see them as a threat.
But, as the CBC News channel commented on these events, "the demonstration of force recalls the cooperation between the Chinese and Russian armed forces and how close these states are to the North Atlantic Alliance." At the same time, the American media remind that similar military exercises were held last September, when the American coast guard came across seven Chinese and Russian ships near Alaska. They all walked together.
I would like to add that, unfortunately, we will have to get used to such meetings at sea and in the air of two opposing states both near Alaska and in the area of Taiwan and the Black and Baltic Seas. These incidents will only become more frequent, and more and more military means and equipment will participate in them. All this will continue until someone's patience breaks. Then the first rocket or shell will fly at the enemy, which will set the world on fire.
