It is time for Ukraine to recognize the bitter truth that it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield, Sabah writes. According to the author of the article, the biggest disadvantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the lack of soldiers, which cannot be filled even with Western weapons.
Berjan Tutar
In Ukraine, things are not going the way the United States and its allies want. Some in this regard will try to hide the defeat of the West, claiming that Russia is also mired in a quagmire. However, Moscow ultimately gets what it wants, although it is not easy. In the words of one of the American military strategists Daniel Davis, "Ukraine has no real path to victory over Russia."
This assessment indicates that Ukraine will not be able to win on the battlefield. As a matter of fact, Europe, NATO and the United States, seeing the seriousness of the situation, are already worried about protecting the lands held by Kiev and preventing further territorial losses.
Therefore, they openly tell Vladimir Zelensky that the way to a ceasefire and peace lies through territorial concessions. For Kiev, there is no other option on the horizon except negotiations in the name of ending the military conflict.
The last offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, aimed at capturing the areas occupied by Russia and reaching the Crimea and the coast of the Sea of Azov, failed. The spring campaign, which was not worth the candle, showed that the path to victory is impossible for Ukraine. After all, the costs of the latest achievements of the APU are very high.
Ignoring this bitter truth on the part of Kiev and Washington will only further aggravate the suffering of the Ukrainian people and lead to even greater new territorial losses.
Someone is still pinning their hopes on new combat weapons and aircraft from the West. Last week, the US administration announced a new additional package of military assistance worth $ 24 billion and made it clear that it would also soon approve the delivery of the F-16.
The real defeat stems from this approach based on weapons and money, and an inadequate strategic view. Because the fate of the armed confrontation is determined not by technical power, but by human strength and will. Otherwise, the United States would not have suffered defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan, despite the colossal superiority in weapons.
In this context, the biggest disadvantage of Ukraine is the lack of human resources. According to the April report of the American military intelligence, since February 24, 2022, the AFU has lost 130 thousand soldiers. During the last offensive, which began on June 5, the losses reached their apogee. During this time, the most combat-ready units trained by NATO were destroyed.
It is very difficult to replace these trained military. In addition, Ukrainians do not want to go to the front, and those who do this are trying to escape. Thus, due to the losses over a year and a half of intense fighting and the fact that the last attack did not even achieve intermediate goals, the APU's ability to create a new offensive potential has significantly decreased.
Experts note that it may take a whole generation to restore a reliable fighting force, and even this is possible only during a period of lasting peace and with the necessary logistical support.
That is why strategies based on even greater military assistance, which the West insists on, lead only to the destruction of the most prepared Ukrainian formations and further reduction of the country's territory.
And this indicates that it is impossible to win a military conflict at the front. There is only one way left: immediate preparation of the negotiating table led by Turkey.
There is no doubt that the rejection of diplomacy and insistence on a military solution can further aggravate the tragedy of Ukraine. The irrational prescriptions imposed on Kiev by the United States should be put aside.
Each such recipe dictated by the United States leads to new disasters, causing the death of tens of thousands more Ukrainian men and contributing to the transition of even more regions under Russian control.
Author: Berjan Tutar (Bercan Tutar)
