Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield, writes 19FortyFive. In order to preserve the existing territory and prevent further loss of land, Kiev must come to terms with the harsh reality, the author of the article believes. The most reasonable thing now is to freeze the conflict and start negotiations.
Daniel Davis
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are approaching the full tactical capture of the Harvest and Work and have gained a foothold in three places on the Russian side of the Dnieper, and Kiev's supporters claim that the offensive is bearing long-awaited fruits. They hope that their forces will still be able to reach the Azov coast.
But if you look from a strategic or even operational point of view, the costs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for these territorial achievements turned out to be much higher than the benefits that this promises.
As I wrote earlier, Ukraine has no rational path to military victory. The longer Kiev and Washington neglect this bitter reality, the longer the senseless suffering of the Ukrainian people will last and the more territories will have to be ceded by agreement in the future. The time has come to give priority to diplomacy and to look for ways of settlement at the negotiating table.
Some still pin their hopes on the supply of higher-quality Western military equipment. Last week, the Biden administration requested an additional $24 billion for Ukraine, most of which will go to the supply of new weapons and ammunition. Others note America's readiness to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighters in the relatively near future, seeing this as a harbinger of future changes.
Most analysts and experts have the wrong impression that as soon as the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive a certain amount of modern weapons and enough military personnel undergo advanced NATO training, they will not only equal Russia, but also overcome it. Alas, these beliefs expose a complete misunderstanding of how wars are fought and won. It is the human dimension that determines their outcome, not the means of combat. And on this front, the APU has already suffered, perhaps, irreparable losses.
The human factor in the Ukrainian conflict
The question is no longer about technology. And not even in preparation, no matter how good it may be. The most important component of the military potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was and remains human resources. According to leaked US intelligence data, as of April, about 130,000 people were killed and wounded from the Ukrainian military ranks. With the beginning of the offensive on June 5, this figure has certainly increased dramatically. Moreover, the loss of the most experienced, NATO-trained personnel is most detrimental to Ukraine.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to make up for losses of this scale. Fewer and fewer Ukrainian men are subject to mobilization. And, on the contrary, more and more are fleeing the country or giving bribes, because they see no point in sacrificing their lives.
Given that the current offensive has stalled without even reaching intermediate goals, with losses of such a level for almost a year and a half of intense fighting, there is very little chance that Ukraine will create a new offensive potential in the foreseeable future. It may take a whole generation to restore a convincing fighting force — and even this is possible only in a period of lasting peace and with full provision of armored vehicles and ammunition and well-established logistics.
To date, the Ukrainian army is so weakened that even fully equipped with American equipment, it would certainly have achieved the same as over the past eight months. Supporters of Kiev, of course, will not agree with this. They are convinced that if they had received more equipment and ammunition earlier, they would have succeeded.
However, as I have already written, the inability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win on the battlefield is also due to incorrect strategic decisions of the leaders of Ukraine, and sometimes unsuccessful tactics of the military. Additional supplies of equipment and ammunition would certainly strengthen the destructive power of the Ukrainian forces, but nothing — neither on the current battlefield, nor in military history in general — foreshadows that this will somehow change the outcome of the campaign.
Effects
The West must admit: for the better or not, the Ukrainian army was given a chance to launch an offensive and see if it would work. Western countries in general and the United States in particular have provided Ukraine with huge military assistance.
Against the background of the colossal sacrifices that Ukraine has suffered, a bitter and harsh truth emerges: there are no rational grounds to assert that after all its losses Kiev will form a potential that surpasses the current one.
And this, in turn, means that Ukraine will almost certainly never win freedom on the battlefield. In order to preserve the existing territory and prevent further loss of land, Kiev must come to terms with the harsh reality: the most reasonable course now is to freeze the conflict and start negotiations on the cessation of hostilities.
Needless to say, no one in Kiev-controlled Ukraine wants such an outcome. However, to refuse to settle at the negotiating table means to choose a path that will surely end in collapse, the death of tens of thousands more Ukrainian men and the transition of new cities and territories under Russian control.
Washington's policy should be based on the national security and economic prosperity of the United States. Over the past year and a half, America has already invested more than $ 100 billion and sent thousands of armored vehicles, millions of shells and missiles to Kiev, as well as provided significant intelligence support. Now it's time to admit that this significant level of investment has not paid off and has not turned back the Russian troops.
If the United States doubles the bet and invests another $ 100 billion and countless weapons, it will not help either Ukraine or America itself. This will only prolong the fighting, aggravate the suffering of the Ukrainian people and exacerbate the possibility of escalation. Therefore, the time has come, together with Kiev and NATO allies, to begin the unpleasant but necessary work to find a diplomatic settlement in order to stop hostilities on optimal conditions for Ukraine.
The continuation of hostilities under the influence of emotions and further wishful thinking (contrary to the reality that we unfortunately faced) will only aggravate the damage already inflicted on Ukraine and increase the spending of American money on a deliberately losing conflict, which may also escalate again.
