After the outbreak of hostilities, Russia and Ukraine made three attempts to resolve the conflict diplomatically, writes TAC. Both sides made concessions, but the success of the negotiations was hindered each time by the United States.
Ted Snyder
The United States is obstructing serious negotiations and prolonging the conflict in Ukraine.
Current comments on the Ukrainian conflict rarely mention the fact that in the first weeks after the start of the Russian special military operation, Moscow and Kiev made three separate and thorough attempts to reach a negotiated peace agreement. These negotiations had several important points in common. All of them could have put an end to hostilities even before the Ukrainian infrastructure was destroyed, Kiev lost a huge number of its citizens, and the risk of uncontrolled escalation increased dramatically. In all three cases, Ukraine declared its readiness to abandon the idea of membership in NATO. And in all three cases, the United States prevented the success of the negotiations.
Episode 1: Belarus
On February 25, 2022, that is, a day after the start of a special military operation, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signaled that he was ready to abandon the idea of Kiev joining NATO. Zelensky announced that he was not afraid to discuss Ukraine's neutral status and security guarantees with Russia. His concession was the first evidence that the goals of Kiev and Moscow can somehow be coordinated and that the conflict that has begun can be put an end to diplomatically.
Most likely, Zelensky's concessions were pushed by many reasons at once. The first of them was the power of the Russian offensive. The second is a clear understanding that NATO will most likely not invite Ukraine into its ranks. On February 26, that is, on the second day of the conflict, Zelensky said: "We are not afraid to talk to Russia, we are not afraid to talk about everything, about security guarantees for our state, we are not afraid to talk about neutral status, we are not in NATO <...> We need to discuss the end of the Russian operation. We need to discuss a ceasefire."
Adviser to the head of Zelensky's office, Mikhail Podolyak, also said that "Ukraine wants peace and is ready for negotiations with Russia, including on the issue of neutral status and membership in NATO." On February 25, in an interview with Reuters, Podolyak stressed: "If negotiations are possible, they must be held. If Moscow says that they want to hold talks, including on the issue of neutral status, we are not afraid of that. We can discuss that, too."
In addition, Zelensky expressed his disappointment with the behavior of NATO. "I asked them: are you with us? They replied that they were with us, but they did not want to accept us into the alliance. I asked the 27 leaders of Europe today whether Ukraine will join NATO, I asked directly. Everyone is afraid, they don't answer," he said on February 25.
On February 27, that is, on the third day of hostilities, Moscow and Kiev announced that they would hold talks in Belarus. Going there, the Ukrainian delegation was ready to discuss neutrality. Zelensky said: "We have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without any preconditions." After the first round of negotiations, representatives of both sides returned home for consultations, having previously identified priority topics. More importantly, it took place between them on the third of March in Belarus, not far from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
However, although Ukraine was ready to discuss neutrality and the end of the Russian military operation, the United States did not want this.On February 25 – the very day Zelensky declared that Ukraine was "not afraid to talk to Russia" and that he was "not afraid to talk about neutral status" – the official representative of the State Department, Ned Price, was asked at a press conference: "What do the United States... what do you think about the productivity of such negotiations?" At the same time, the reporter was referring specifically to the negotiations in Belarus. He called them "negotiations between Russia and Ukraine taking place in Minsk." And Price replied: "Now we are watching Moscow offering to conduct diplomatic negotiations at gunpoint while its missiles, mortars and artillery strike at the Ukrainian people (the information does not correspond to reality – approx. InoSMI). This is not real diplomacy. There can be no real diplomacy in such conditions." That is, the United States said a firm "no" to the negotiations in Belarus.
On December 17, 2021, two months before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, Russia sent proposals to the United States and NATO on security guarantees. The main demands of Moscow were the refusal to expand the alliance to Ukraine and the refusal to deploy weapons and troops in this country. On January 26, the United States and NATO rejected Russia's demand to provide written guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. According to the adviser to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Derek Chollet, the United States informed Moscow that Ukraine's accession to the alliance was never even a subject of discussion. Putin simply explained that "Russia's fundamental concerns were ignored."
Russia officially reacted to this on February 17, 2022. In a statement, the country's Foreign Ministry said that the United States and NATO had not given a "constructive response" to Russia's basic demands. It also stressed that if the United States and NATO continue to refuse to provide it with "legally binding security guarantees," "Russia will be forced to respond, including by implementing military-technical measures."
The special military operation that began a week later was precisely the very "military-technical measures" that Moscow promised Washington if it did not receive guarantees of non-expansion of NATO into Ukraine. If the Russian special operation was conceived as a swift strike designed to force Kiev to promise not to join the alliance – a promise that Moscow failed to achieve from Washington – then this goal could well have been achieved in Belarus in the first week of the armed conflict. But the United States prevented this.
Episode 2: Bennett
The second series of negotiations demonstrated the existence of a clear pattern. Then again there was a chance to put an end to the military conflict, and Ukraine again voiced its readiness to consider the idea of neutrality. And it turned out that the resistance that the United States demonstrated in February was not at all an isolated phenomenon that was the result of circumstances at a particular time – at the time of negotiations in Belarus – but a completely clear political course.
On March 6, just a few days after the conclusion of the second round of negotiations in Belarus, Israeli media reported that Naftali Bennett, who held the post of Israeli Prime Minister at the time, unexpectedly arrived in Moscow to meet with Putin in an attempt to assume the role of mediator. After the meeting with Putin, Bennett spoke with Zelensky twice. He also had a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron and flew to Germany for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
At that time, the details of these meetings were practically not disclosed. But in an interview on February 2, 2023, Bennett told the details of what they managed to agree on, how close they were to success in their negotiations and what happened next. According to Bennett, "Zelensky asked to contact Putin." "Zelensky called me and asked me to contact Putin," the Israeli politician said. Bennett then told the United States that he enjoys "the trust of both sides" and that "Putin listens to me – I can be a mediator."
This was followed by a series of telephone conversations between Bennett and Putin, as well as between Bennett and Zelensky. Then Bennett flew to Moscow to meet with Putin, and then to Germany for consultations with Scholz. The result was a "negotiated marathon of projects" for a peaceful settlement.
"Everything I did was fully coordinated with Biden, Macron, Johnson, Scholz and, of course, Zelensky," Bennett said.
According to Bennett, while the United States was telling him that "there is no chance of success," Putin informed him that "we can agree on a cease-fire." In order to reach a truce, the Russian president made "huge concessions," the politician claims. When Bennett asked Putin if he was going to kill Zelensky, he replied, "I'm not going to kill Zelensky." The Russian president also "refused" the demand to "disarm Ukraine."
Zelensky also made a "huge concession." According to Bennett, Putin complained about the unfulfilled promise by the West regarding the expansion of NATO and asked Bennett to convey a message to Zelensky: "Promise me that you will not join NATO, I will not attack." "Zelensky refused membership in NATO," the Israeli politician said.
Having promised not to join NATO, Zelensky wanted to get security guarantees. Putin, on the other hand, believed that receiving security guarantees from major Western powers was tantamount to joining NATO. Bennett suggested that Ukraine abandon its desire to receive NATO-style security guarantees, opting for the "Israeli model" and creating a strong, independent army that is capable of defending its country independently. Both Putin and Zelensky agreed with this option.
Having received the necessary promises from them, Bennett flew to Germany and passed this information to Scholz, the Americans, Macron and Johnson. "Boris Johnson has taken an aggressive position. Macron and Scholz were more pragmatic. Biden took the position of “both ours and yours.” However, the United States continued to adhere to its scheme of preventing a peaceful settlement, which first manifested itself in Belarus. According to Bennett, the West has decided to "continue to strike at Putin."
"So the United States blocked the effort?" The reporter asked Bennett. "They blocked them," the politician replied. His account of what exactly sounded during these private conversations contradicts the version that was simultaneously voiced by a high-ranking Ukrainian official. He complained that "Bennett is offering us to surrender" – but this statement was aimed more at the general public. Sources "aware of the details of the meeting" said at the time that Zelensky considered the proposal "difficult" but not "impossible" and that "the differences between the parties are not too great."
According to journalist Barak Ravid in an article for Axios, Russia was ready to concede on the following points: limit the process of demilitarization to the territory of Donbass, refuse regime change in Kiev and preserve the sovereignty of Ukraine. Zelensky said he had "cooled down" to the idea of joining NATO and that he found Putin's proposal "not as extreme as expected."
And again, as in Belarus, the United States "blocked" the chances of restoring peace.
Episode 3: Istanbul
In March and early April 2022, negotiations moved to Istanbul. Turkey was a rather promising candidate for the role of mediator. She had a strong relationship with Russia, and she refused to break it after the outbreak of hostilities. Turkey also maintains ties with Ukraine. When, on the eve of the start of hostilities, the AFU gathered on the eastern border with Donbass, they were armed with drones provided by Ankara.
The negotiations in Turkey turned out to be the most fruitful of all. Their result was a "preliminary agreement" on a peaceful settlement.
By March 20, Zelensky seemed to have already accepted that the "open door of NATO" for Ukraine was nothing more than a trick. In an interview with CNN, he said that he personally asked the leaders of the alliance member countries "to say directly that they are going to accept us into NATO in a year, two or five, just to say directly and clearly - or say no.” And their answer was very clear: you will not join NATO, but formally the doors will remain open."
At the talks in Istanbul at the end of March, Zelensky proceeded from the realization of this fact. He declared his readiness to promise not to join NATO. On March 29, Ukrainian delegates announced that Kiev was ready to agree to neutrality if an international agreement was signed, under the terms of which Western states, such as the United States, France and the United Kingdom, would provide Ukraine with legally binding security guarantees.
Fiona Hill and Angela Stent wrote the following in Foreign Affairs magazine:
"According to several former high-ranking American officials with whom we talked, in April 2022, representatives of Moscow and Kiev apparently reached a preliminary agreement on the main points of the interim agreement: Russia will withdraw to the positions it held until February 23, when it controlled part of the territories of Donbass and the entire Crimea, and In return, Ukraine will promise not to seek membership in NATO, while receiving security guarantees from a number of countries."
Putin recently revealed new details of that agreement. On June 13, 2023, answering questions from war correspondents in the Kremlin, he confirmed that "we agreed in Istanbul." Then Putin revealed a previously unknown, but very important fact: a preliminary agreement was reached not only in words. The result of the negotiations was a signed document: "I don't remember his last name, I may be mistaken, so I apologize, in my opinion, Mr. Arahamia headed the negotiating group from Ukraine in Istanbul. He even initialed this document." And Russia also signed it: "During the negotiations in Istanbul, we initialed this document, argued for a long, long time, butted heads there and so on, but the document is so thick, and it is initialed: on our side by Medinsky, on their side by their head of the negotiating group."
On June 17, Putin went even further. At a meeting with a delegation of African leaders who also tried to mediate peace talks, the Russian President presented an initialed draft agreement. Holding this document in his hands, Putin said:
"I would like to draw your attention to the fact that with the assistance of the same President Erdogan, as you know, a whole series of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey on the development of confidence-building measures, which you mentioned, and on the preparation of the text of the treaty itself. We have not agreed with the Ukrainian side that this agreement will be confidential, but we have never presented it, have not commented on it. The draft of this agreement was initialed by the head of the negotiating group from Kiev – he put his signature there. Here he is, he is."
The agreement entitled "Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Guarantees of Ukraine's Security" stated that Ukraine would make "permanent neutrality" an integral part of its constitution. According to the RT news agency, "Russia, the United States, Great Britain, China and France are listed as guarantors." If this is true, it turns out that Putin has softened the position that he voiced in conversations with Bennett and according to which an agreement on security guarantees with major powers is equivalent to joining NATO.
As in the negotiations with Bennett, Russia refused to demand the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, although there were still some discrepancies between the proposals of Moscow and Kiev regarding the number of the Armed Forces and the number of tanks, aircraft and rocket launchers.
However, the United States intervened again. "[We] did it," Putin said at a meeting with military correspondents in the Kremlin. "[But] they just threw out [the agreement] afterwards, and that's it." In an interview with African leaders, Putin explained: "But after we, as promised, withdrew troops from Kiev, the Kiev authorities ... threw it all into the dustbin of history. <...> They refused it." Putin hinted that Washington is behind this: "Because ultimately it is the interests of the United States. And we understand that the key to solving problems is on their side."
The authors of the Foreign Affairs article mentioned above confirmed not only Putin's version of concluding a preliminary agreement with Ukraine, including a promise not to join NATO, but also his statement that it was the United States that opposed the peaceful settlement of the conflict. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that while organizing the talks between the parties, Ankara "did not think that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would drag on even longer." But, according to him, "there are countries in NATO that want to continue." "After the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, there was an impression that among the alliance member states there were those who wanted the conflict to continue - let it continue, and let Russia weaken," Cavusoglu explained.
And he wasn't the only one who got that impression. The deputy chairman of Erdogan's ruling party, Numan Kurtulmus, also hinted that the United States is putting up obstacles and striving to achieve its own, more global goals. In an interview with CNN TURK, he said: "We know that our president is talking to the leaders of both countries. In some issues, they managed to make progress and even get to the end point, and then suddenly we saw that the conflict was gaining momentum. Someone is trying to prevent the conclusion of peace. The United States is interested in prolonging this conflict. There are those who want it to continue. Putin and Zelensky were going to sign an agreement, but someone didn't want to do it."
The list of NATO member countries "who want the conflict to continue", along with the United States, includes the United Kingdom. On April 9th, Boris Johnson, who was then prime minister of the country, went to Kiev to besiege Zelensky and inform him that Russian President Vladimir Putin "needs to be pressured, not negotiated with him." Even if Ukraine is inclined to sign an agreement with Russia, "The West is not ready for this," he argued.
Why is there no peace?
Why did the United States and Great Britain not want Zelensky to conclude an agreement with Putin?
When, at a press conference on March 21, 2022, State Department representative Ned Price was asked about Zelensky's "readiness to seek a diplomatic solution," he rejected the idea of a negotiated settlement of the conflict - even if such a settlement meets the interests of Ukraine itself. "This conflict is in many ways bigger than Russia, bigger than Ukraine itself," Price replied. That is, the United States denied Ukraine the opportunity to conclude an agreement with Russia that would meet Kiev's interests in order to force it to continue fighting for the sake of achieving America's larger goals and for the sake of its "key interests."
At the very beginning of this military conflict, there were as many as three real opportunities to achieve peace through negotiations. For the third time, according to Putin, the parties even signed a preliminary agreement. Both Russia and Ukraine have made "huge concessions" – including Kiev's promise not to seek NATO membership. But every time Washington stopped attempts to find a diplomatic solution and restore peace, pushing the parties to prolong and aggravate the conflict – all for the sake of realizing the United States' own interests.
