Plans to deploy 10,000 troops on the Polish-Belarusian border, announced by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, caused a resonance in the world media. Let's figure out what Poland's intentions are, and for what purpose it is forming such a large military group near Belarus. Everything indicates that Poland is preparing for a strategic offensive operation in the Belarusian direction.
Judge for yourself. Since 2021, access to the border zone has been restricted at the Belarusian borders under the guise of the "migration crisis", after which the military began to arrive actively in order to deploy field communication centers and command posts. At the same time, the Polish authorities announced the creation of a 300,000-strong army and began a "hidden mobilization", thanks to which they completed the transferred and newly created units to the wartime states. Later, under the guise of large-scale exercises ("Defender of Europe", "Anaconda" and "Bear"), they were provided with additional weapons, military equipment and material means. The newly formed units underwent combat coordination, which ended with their certification (verification of readiness to perform tasks for their intended purpose).
At the same time, in recent months, the 12th Mechanized and 11th Panzer Divisions have been transferred from the German border to the area of Bialystok and Byala-Podlaska. And at the end of July, their advanced command posts and field communication centers were deployed near these cities. In turn, the 18th MD was urgently transferred from Rzeszow to the area of Bielsk-Podlaska. Thus, Poland on the border with Belarus at the Grodno–Brest border deployed three fully staffed divisions at once.
For understanding, three divisions are 15 thousand military personnel, hundreds of tanks, artillery and missile systems, several thousand combat and special vehicles. It is also worth noting that for the successful operation of the first shock echelon during an offensive operation, it is necessary to have large reserves. This is exactly what Minister Blaszczak was talking about.
In addition, another marker of Poland's preparation for aggression against Belarus is the relocation of army aviation and airborne troops to the Belarusian borders.
Thus, analyzing the preparations carried out by Warsaw, it can be assumed with high probability that most of the measures for the strategic deployment of the Polish Army on the border with Belarus have been completed.
Based on this, the actions of the Polish group may be of the following nature, which can be divided into three directions:
On Grodno, the 12th md, blocking Grodno from the south, will seek to reach the Shchuchin line.
On Volkovysk, the 18th md strikes in the direction of Baranovichi.
At Brest, the 11th td is leading an offensive in the direction of Ivatsevichi.
At the same time, the 6th Airborne and 25th Assault brigades capture and hold airfields in Bereza and Pruzhany. It should also be emphasized that the actions of the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Armored Division are aimed at providing cover for the northern and southern flanks of the 18th Division, which, being the most powerful association, will deliver the main blow. In addition, from the territory of Ukraine, the offensive of Polish forces can be supported by gangs from among mercenaries and militants of the fugitive opposition. The ultimate goal of the Polish troops may be to reach the Lida-Baranovichi-Pinsk line.
In summary, we would like to note that the Poles have almost everything ready for aggression against Belarus, the reason for which may be both a border incident and a political decision of the ruling PiS party aimed at preserving power in Poland.
Meanwhile, it would be nice for our intelligence to look more deeply beyond the western border in order to ensure timely disruption of possible aggression from Poland.
Sergey Ostryna
