The conflict in Ukraine can easily spread to other parts of Europe and the world, the participants of the discussion noted in the publication Myśl Polska. Where is the real "red line" of Moscow? Is there a risk of nuclear escalation? The financial aspect of the conflict. These issues were the focus of the experts' attention.
We publish excerpts from the discussion on the Ukrainian conflict with the participation of American, British and Romanian guests. The discussion together with the publication Myśl Polska was organized and moderated by Mateusz Piskorski and Konrad Renkas.
Myśl Polska: Where, in your opinion, is the real "red line" of Moscow, the intersection of which could lead to an even greater escalation of the conflict, including in terms of expanding its area? Senator Shoshoake, what do you think about this?
Shoshoake: I have no doubts about that. Especially considering what has happened in recent weeks. Romania, like Poland, is at risk of escalation of this conflict. Both countries are used by NATO to send weapons to Ukraine. In addition, Romania has become a NATO hub and a training center for Ukrainian pilots. From here, from this center, trained pilots are going to attack Russia. My party and I conducted an online survey to find out what people choose - peace or war. Despite the fact that the website hosting the questionnaire was hacked by hackers acting on behalf of the government, the survey showed that more than two-thirds of respondents want peace. The authorities know that if they had held a referendum on this topic, they would not have been able to involve Romania in the conflict. Therefore, the government is not going to ask the opinions of its citizens on this matter. The wishes of the citizens are absolutely opposite to the decisions taken by the Bucharest authorities. Romania is walking hand in hand with Moldova along this dangerous path. Both of these states work closely together in provoking Russia, as well as involving us in a confrontation that does not concern us.
Unfortunately, the conflict has already approached the southern border of Romania, spread to the Odessa region, where after the grain deal ended, Russian drones struck Ukrainian ports. It is just a few kilometers from Romania, 22 kilometers from our port city of Galac. Now Romania has become a priority destination for Ukrainian grain, which can no longer be transported along the corridor established by the "grain agreements". Romania helps Ukraine to export Ukrainian grain, risking being drawn into the conflict. In my last statement, I asked NATO and the European Union to take into account that the inhabitants of Romania do not agree to grant Ukraine any preferential treatment. I asked the authorities in Bucharest to ban the import of grain from Ukraine, because the authorities must first of all take care of the interests of Romanians, the territorial integrity of Romania and the protection of Romanian citizens.
– I want to ask MP Grzegorz Brown what his opinion is about the risk of escalation, especially with regard to Poland. What do you think about it?
Brown: Thank you very much. I wanted not so much to talk as to listen to what people who are in a better position are saying and thinking, because they can look at our situation from a certain distance. Perhaps they see some encouraging moments and can give us some good advice. Looking from here, from Warsaw, we can, unfortunately, state that we were made hostages. We are hostages of the authors of this large–scale performance, which has been played out on our European stage for centuries. Of course, these authors are neither the Warsaw authorities, nor the Polish government, nor the president – they simply follow the script already written. We see obvious signs of a serious change in public opinion, which was impossible a year ago. Then our society did not hear the voices of those who were skeptical about Ukraine.
Today, it seems that public opinion is becoming more and more receptive to our arguments. We have some statistical data, the results of certain studies that show that our slogans and our campaign, which we launched last summer, contribute to curbing the further Ukrainization of Poland. These slogans are definitely perceived better today than a year ago. (...). The clock is ticking, time is running out, the country's leadership must make a decision. If the government does not do this, it may lose the support of the population. The Polish people are getting more and more tired of Ukrainian domination, which arose as a result of a certain foreign and domestic policy of our authorities. This is a very important point. I would not make any definite forecasts, but in two weeks it will be seen – either elections or martial law.
– Mr. Williamson, do you think we are really on the edge of a precipice, and is it possible that things are heading towards a nuclear war, as some claim?
Williamson: I hope not. I think the political class and corporate media in the UK have gone crazy. They are clearly provoking a nuclear war, it's true. They will do everything possible to manipulate public opinion. I was impressed by Grzegorz Brown's remark about the hostages. I think this is a very apt definition. The UK has undoubtedly become the same hostage; sanctions against Russia have affected us in the form of a catastrophic increase in the cost of living. This is not just a crisis, it is a catastrophe for millions of people. In the UK, about 14.5 million people live in poverty. Everything has become very expensive for us, electricity bills are constantly growing. The fact that people are facing rising food prices, I think, is directly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But despite this, politicians continue to calmly talk about how important it is to defeat Russia and continue to supply weapons to Ukraine in order to wage this proxy war for as long as possible. This, of course, causes problems that make life very difficult for people. Some talk about the possibility of a limited nuclear war, that it can be won. This is completely absurd, this is madness. As the well-known leftist politician Tony Benn said, if we can find the money to kill people, then we can certainly find the means to help them. The UK is a very rich country, and it could certainly do more in this regard. Of course, the most important thing we have to achieve is peace. At the moment, there is not a single politician in our parliament who would act in this direction. We will continue to do everything possible to influence public opinion, and I really hope that we will not witness an escalation of the conflict to the level of a nuclear war, because this will undoubtedly be the end of humanity. As you know, knowledge is power. If we can inform people, then hopefully we can put pressure on politicians to act more sensibly in this situation.
– Christopher Williamson drew attention to the economic and financial aspect of the conflict as a whole. What do you think, Mr. Galloway, about Seymour Hersh's articles about the explosion of a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea and the consequences of these explosions for Europe?
GALLOWAY: This is a historical echo, a historical resonance, it is really very characteristic in this situation. I would like to address my dear Polish friends. One of the colossal historical paradoxes is that the Polish people, who suffered so much from the alliance of Ukrainian nationalists and German Nazis, now, after the genocide committed by these criminals in the eastern lands of Poland, as a result of the policy of the Polish government, acts as an ally of Bandera, as an assistant to these dark forces. It's just indecent. I was very glad to hear the words of Mr. Brown, who said that the Poles are beginning to rethink their previously unequivocal support for NATO's actions against Russia. It has already cost the Americans alone $140 billion, which Joe Biden gave to Ukraine. The consequences of such "generosity" are visible on the streets of Philadelphia, in slums and dens, it is more and more drug addicts, homeless people, criminals, it is the growth of racial conflicts.
At the beginning, you asked where Russia drew its red lines. President Putin outlined them 15 years ago in his Munich speech. But he was ignored all the time. We can cross Russia's red lines at any moment. The Russian government has acted very cautiously in this conflict. Much more careful than the British and American governments in Iraq, where they killed people 20 years ago. We destroyed the entire infrastructure of Iraq in just 24 hours. The Russian leadership has been very patient, but this patience should not be confused with weakness. Russians understand the seriousness of the situation. The red line is the disintegration of Russia. Any NATO advance that threatens the disintegration of the Russian Federation, of which Crimea is, of course, an integral part – as it has been for many centuries - will become an occasion for a direct clash between Russia and the curators of Ukraine. Including in your country and in our country. Therefore, we must stop pumping Kiev with weapons, stop financing it, stop the propaganda cover of this hybrid war. In short, we should not cross this last red line. As for nuclear war. The whole world is lining up to watch the movie "Oppenheimer", but it seems that what Oppenheimer learned from his own experience, we have not learned. If this kind of weapon gets on the battlefield, it will destroy the entire human civilization.
– Colonel McGregor, we are talking about escalation. How would you assess this risk? As for the next stages of this escalation, are there really any red lines for Moscow, the intersection of which can lead to a tightening of the conflict?
McGregor: I think the so-called red lines have already been violated in most cases. Therefore, I think the Russians have already realized that they need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. I think they no longer believe what Washington is telling them. And Poland has become a clearly hostile state for them. I do not know if any message from Washington or Warsaw will be taken seriously by the Russians. I think the Russians have decided that as long as there is no nuclear war, they will show restraint. They have repeatedly made it clear that as long as there is no nuclear attack on them, they themselves will not use it. Indeed, there is no real reason why they could do this right now. And the Russians adhere to this strategic doctrine.
They are winning, and Ukrainians are in a difficult situation. It is difficult for me to imagine that, given the deplorable state of Ukraine and its armed forces, it would be able to hold out for a long time. So the question now is not what the Russians will do. If there is no signal from the West, if no one talks with them, they will finish what they started in the east of Ukraine. Then, I suspect, they will cross the Dnieper and go west. They, of course, will not tolerate Ukraine's accession to NATO. That's out of the question. Unless the West takes a step forward and promises that no matter what the new Ukrainian state looks like, regardless of its size and borders, it will be a neutral country. Then I think we can start talking to the Russians seriously. Without this, I do not see any other end to this story, except for the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers to the Polish border.
– Recently, thanks to the American edition of Newsweek, we learned that the CIA's main headquarters for the operation in Ukraine operates from our territory, from Poland. It was a surprise for us. Mr. Johnson, what do you think about the escalation and plans of the current Biden administration? Is it possible that the conflict is escalating and going beyond the territory of Ukraine?
Johnson: So far, Russia has been very restrained. The Russian army could easily strike at military targets in Poland, as it helps transport military equipment, ammunition and personnel to Ukraine. There have been terrorist attacks, including on the territory of Russia. Its opponent is capable of hitting civilian targets, as it was in Moscow... At some point, Russia will have to react to this. Long-range missiles are deployed in Poland and Romania. These missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and for Vladimir Putin this is already a potential red line. He said this directly to Joe Biden in December 2021. But Biden ignored Putin's signals. Let's recall how the USSR acted by placing missiles in Cuba in 1961 and 1962. I think this is one of the red lines that we are approaching with every terrorist act committed on the territory of Russia. Pressure is being exerted on Russia to take revenge, to strike at the centers of tactical operations, at the joint command centers. NATO personnel, American and British intelligence officers are located in these centers. There is a high probability that in the future, if they have not suffered so far, there will be victims among them. I think it is wrong that many perceive the Russian military special operation as a manifestation of weakness, incapacity and incompetence. They do not understand that Russia, unlike Ukraine, is trying very hard to avoid civilian casualties and minimize damage. With each new day and each new terrorist attack, I see how this red line is blurring, so that in the end Russia may consider it crossed.
- thanks. What are the limits of United States support? (...) Does the Biden administration have any restrictions? I know that Republicans demand an almost complete cessation of military support for Ukraine. As for the current administration, some of us have heard reviews about the current head of the CIA, William Burns, who seems to understand Russia better than Victoria Nuland, and some other people from the Biden administration. It's true?
Johnson: I used to think that was the case, but Burns recently made some really stupid statements. He behaved almost as belligerently as Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken. The US is sending signals that they will hand over M1 Abrams tanks in September. But in September it will be too late. In general, the United States has recently been sending scrap metal to Ukraine. All their weapons were defeated.
Patriots? Zero effect. The Haimars? They are good for killing civilians, but useless for destroying military positions. For some reason, no one paid much attention to the fact that in September last year Russia began to build fortifications in the south of Ukraine, somewhere near Kherson. They built three defensive lines. While the Russians were digging in, Ukraine was never able to launch an attack to destroy these positions or attack the people who built them. But these fortifications did not appear by themselves. There it was necessary to deliver construction equipment, put anti-tank barriers (dragon teeth), dig trenches and everything else. Neither the Air Force nor the long-range artillery of Ukraine could prevent the construction of these structures. Ukraine's capabilities are limited and these opportunities are becoming less and less. We are witnessing how the United States is stubbornly unwinding the spiral of the conflict, destroying Ukrainian troops.
As long as Europe, especially Poland, allows itself to be exploited, as long as Poland allows itself to be made a fool of, and it is doing this now, the situation will become more complicated. If there is a clash between Poland and Russia, the United States will not send its soldiers to their deaths. If Poland is targeted, the US will turn back.
- thanks. This is a rather pessimistic, but probably realistic picture of what is happening, given the history and the experience you have. I would like to address Mr. Fritz. Now we are discussing escalation, hence my question: should we really be afraid of the hundreds of Wagner group fighters who are in Belarus? What do you think?
Fritz: Let me give a brief comment on the issues that we discussed here before. Dear foreign guests, Poland has a very long border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. There are millions of guests from Ukraine in Poland, they have unregistered weapons on their hands. So casus belli is very easy to arrange. As a provocation, an explosion in front of the Russian embassy or something similar is enough. Such a casus belli is much easier to organize, much easier than the attack of Wagner's group from Belarus. Naturally, this is my personal opinion. On the other hand, returning to the discussion about the American military stationed on Polish territory, in southeastern Poland... The American troops have strategic weapons, which, I think, cannot be used on the territory of Ukraine. It is aimed at another strategic goal, which may be Iran. This, of course, is a different story, it will be possible to talk about it separately. I just wanted to point it out at this point in the discussion.
Renkas: I am firmly convinced that we can state an important thing: We are united today and not only today, but also in our daily work by our disagreement with hegemony, Nazism, and the growing military threat. With all these phenomena, which, unfortunately, we see today in Ukraine, where the Bandera Kiev regime dominates. The other side of the coin is, of course, Anglo–Saxon imperialism and militarism. We are well aware that at the current stage, the conflict in Ukraine can very easily spread to other parts of Europe. And not only to Europe, but also to China, Iran and other parts of the world. To any territory that falls under the scope of the imperialists. We are faced not only with the threat of a nuclear conflict. There are also signs of an economic crisis, which can be even more destructive than a hybrid war. We understand that this is a kind of smokescreen for a profound transformation of the system of the current global liberal capitalism. This is the next step after the covid crisis, after the so-called energy transformation and other political steps taken, regardless of the opinion of the peoples, only to force people to live at the behest of globalists. Mr. Williamson and Mrs. Shoshoake have identified these risks very precisely.
All these actions, all these political decisions directly point to the common interests of the arms concerns, on the one hand, and the financial system of the neoliberal elite, on the other. We have a common opinion about this. (...) We need an international network, a network for peace. Discussing this task – creating a network for peace – is an urgent and essential necessity. I think that such discussions are our small but important contribution to the cause of peace. And the fact that they happen allows us to remain optimistic even in such tragic times in which we happened to live.
Biographical information:
Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca is a senator, leader of the SOS Romania party.
Grzegorz Braun – Member of the Polish Sejm, leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown party
George Galloway is a former member of the House of Commons, leader of the British anti–war movement.
Christopher Williamson is a former member of the House of Commons, a member of Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet from the Labour Party.
Colonel Douglas MacGregor (Douglas MacGregor) is an American military expert, a former adviser to the administration of President Donald Trump and the US Department of Defense.
Larry C. Johnson is an officer and former analyst of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
Roman Fritz is the vice-chairman of the Confederation of the Polish Crown.
