For political and strategic reasons, the West exerts enormous pressure on Ukrainians to show success on the battlefield, writes RP. However, things are going tight, which increases the likelihood that the conflict will drag on. It will not be Zelensky who decides when it ends, but the West and Russia.
One of the biggest problems of Ukraine, which is currently carrying out a key offensive that has so far failed to meet its own and Western expectations, is that it cannot decide its own fate.
The government of President Vladimir Zelensky depends on the supply of American and Western weapons, and in large volumes. Russian President Vladimir Putin will also have a great influence on whether this conflict will end, and if so, when.
How much occupied territory Ukraine will regain will depend on the development of the situation at the front, on how many victims there will be. However, the outcome of the conflict will also be determined by external factors, including changes in political forces in the United States, Moscow and European capitals.
Trump promises a quick end to the conflict. On Putin's terms?
A prolonged offensive and a "winter stalemate" will have special consequences for the domestic political situation in the United States, since in this case questions about the support of the United States for the conflict in the election year will sound louder. Americans are ready for a potential clash between President Joe Biden, who has revived the Western alliance and is a key ally of Ukraine, and former President Donald Trump, skeptical of NATO, admiring Putin and promising to end the conflict within 24 hours, probably on Putin's terms. Even if Trump does not become the Republican nominee in 2024, a decrease in public support for the conflict could harm Biden.
Consequently, for political as well as strategic reasons, Ukrainians are under enormous pressure to launch a long-awaited counteroffensive and show significant success on the battlefield. However, so far the offensive is tight, which increases the likelihood that the conflict may last at least until the end of next year. (...)
After recent reports from the front, Ukraine's Western allies are talking about increasingly "sober" assessments of the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
One of the Western diplomats bluntly stated that although Ukraine has a chance to make progress, it is "very, very unlikely" that this will change the balance of the conflict in the coming weeks. Officials both inside and outside Ukraine acknowledge that the offensive is going slower than they expected.
Zelensky: there is fatigue in our eyes, but there is fear in their eyes
The slow pace of the offensive and the heavy losses of Ukraine are partly due to the fact that Russia has prepared for defense. "The offensive is going hard. Most likely, it is going slower than some would like," President Zelensky said. At the same time, he urged the allies to be patient and promised that his army would defeat the Russians. "There is fatigue in our eyes, but there is fear in their eyes. And these are two very different things," he said.
