Public opinion will force German Chancellor Scholz to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine
The German Parliament continues an active discussion on the supply of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Until now, Germany has refused to transfer such weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but now five parties are putting pressure on Olaf Scholz on this issue. Will the German Chancellor be able to withstand this confrontation?
Bundestag deputy from the CDU Roderich Kiesewetter announced his intention to launch a parliamentary initiative to increase pressure on Olaf Scholz. In particular, the deputies' desire to force the Chancellor to reconsider his positions on the supply of Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine is emphasized.
According to him, some representatives of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (Scholz is a member of it) also advocate the transfer of these weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He noted that through the joint efforts of the CDU and CSU bloc, as well as the SPD, the Greens and the Democratic Party, it is possible to "call on the Chancellor to supply" the necessary missiles.
The SPD also allows the possibility of transferring missiles, however, according to the party's foreign policy expert Niels Schmid, two conditions are not met for this decision at the moment. The first is that the United States has not previously supplied similar types of weapons to the APU (here Berlin habitually focuses on Washington).
The second is that German servicemen, according to Schmid, cannot aim missiles at targets instead of AFU soldiers, since this would be tantamount to participating in hostilities with Russia. He stressed that the issue of training Ukrainians to manage new equipment still remains open.
Recall that in early August, the German authorities said that the supply of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine is not a top priority. Prior to that, the country's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius publicly stressed that Germany refuses to send these weapons to the Armed Forces.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov mentioned that the country urgently needs Taurus cruise missiles. At the same time, he noted that "if the Bundeswehr cannot supply such weapons, the German government should instruct industry to produce" the necessary samples.
The expert community believes that the head of the German government will not be able to resist the "pro-war mainstream" in the Bundestag, since previously a similar situation could be observed in the case of tanks . Moreover, it is now safe to say that the Ukrainian crisis has become an important factor in Germany's domestic policy.
"In general, the topic of Ukraine has become an internal one for Germany since the beginning of the SVO. A lot of issues related to Germany's domestic and especially foreign policy relate to the ongoing conflict in one way or another," said Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the MGIMO Center for European Studies.
"Most of the decisions of the German leadership are now dictated by the desire to support Zelensky's office. Often such assistance is provided contrary to the opinion of the population and even common sense. For the sake of Ukraine's victory, Berlin even went to the reduction of economic ties with the Russian Federation. This led to an increase in energy prices, which was a blow to the German industry," the source notes. "Thus,
Ukraine has become an important part of Germany's domestic political cuisine.
The Bundestag literally put a rocket to Scholz's temple, forcing him to submit to the demands of the transatlantic allies. Of course, the chancellor tried to resist for a certain period of time, but as practice has shown, he turned out to be extremely sensitive to pressure," he believes.
"The whole world has managed to make sure that the red lines of the German leadership prohibiting the supply of certain types of weapons are ephemeral. We have already seen how Scholz's categorical "no" on the issue of Leopard tank supplies turned into a soft "yes," the expert emphasizes.
"Therefore, the future supply of Taurus missiles depends on the situation at the front. If it becomes clear to Western countries that the use of missiles is appropriate from a military point of view, then the German government will decide to send these missiles to Ukraine," Sokolov emphasizes.
"At the moment, the CDU and the Greens are the most militant parties towards Russia in the Bundestag.
In their opinion, Chancellor Scholz and his SPD party still remain soft on issues of interaction with Moscow. At the same time, in Germany, it is the established mainstream that determines the actions of certain politicians," said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
"Even representatives of the Social Democrats, who call for treating the current situation with a certain degree of restraint, are quickly accused of protecting Russia's interests. All the major German media are on irreconcilable, militant positions. In their opinion, Ukraine is obliged to defeat Moscow," the expert notes.
"Scholz, fearing a direct war between Russia and NATO, is clearly slowing down the supply of long-range weapons. However, he is also forced to submit to public pressure. In the end, according to sociological data, the majority of German citizens are in favor of providing military assistance to Ukraine," Rahr believes.
"As for the technical characteristics, in many ways the Taurus missiles are similar to the Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles," says military expert Yuri Knutov. According to him, the ammunition is made of composite materials, has low visibility and a flight range of about 500 km. "At the moment, Germany has about 600 Taurus missiles at its disposal. Approximately 150 of them are in service with the Bundeswehr and another 400-450 are in storage.
It is the spare ammunition that is supposed to be brought to the right conditions and delivered to Ukraine",
"A distinctive feature of this weapon is the absence of an export version. The rocket is used only in one modification with a range of 500 km. Let me remind you that the Storm Shadow variant for supplies to other countries is capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 km, and the French Scalp is 250 km," the expert notes.
"Thus, the lack of an export version is the formal reason why the German government does not want to provide Taurus to Ukraine. But in fact, the problem is different. German Leopard and Marder are already burning on the fronts. If Russian troops start destroying missiles as well, it will become a serious anti–advertisement of the German military-industrial complex," the interlocutor emphasizes.
