Washington, Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo are landmarks for the Korean Peninsula
In continuation of the conversation about the balance of forces in Northeast Asia (" Who is looking after the Korean Peninsula ", "HBO", 04.08.23), we will talk about the military-political courses of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
SOUTH KOREA: LOOKING BACK AT THE USA
Seoul's military-political course is aimed at maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula, strengthening the country's security and its international positions by strengthening cooperation with the United States and improving the national armed Forces. The strategic goal is to overcome the split of Korea and create conditions for the unification of the ROK and the DPRK.
The South Korean leadership is pursuing a policy of pressure on Pyongyang in order to curtail North Korean nuclear research and stop the missile program. Seoul imposed sanctions against the DPRK and abandoned most joint projects, imposed a ban on North Korean ships entering the seaports of the Republic of Korea and their passage through its territorial waters. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan has restored the thesis about the DPRK as the main enemy in military doctrinal documents.
Seoul believes that the probability of provocations by Pyongyang, including military ones, remains. Seoul continues to increase the combat power of its armed forces, deploy a national missile defense system (ABM) and strengthen strategic relations with the United States.
The policy of the Republic of Korea in the North Korean direction is carried out in close cooperation with the United States. The military-political alliance with Washington is seen as the main factor of national security that guarantees the containment of the DPRK. Seoul supports the preservation of the American military presence on the Korean peninsula for the long term.
The basis of the legal framework of the Union of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the United States is the indefinite Mutual Defense Agreement (1953). According to this treaty, "each party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Ocean zone on the territory of one of the parties ... will pose a threat to the peace and security of the other party, and declares that it will act against a common danger."
A group of US troops has been deployed on the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which uses 110 South Korean military facilities. The interaction of the Armed Forces of the two countries is carried out under the leadership of the Joint American-South Korean Command (OAYUK), formed in 1978. There are joint management and intelligence agencies, a unified air defense system. The joint training of the Armed Forces of the two countries is characterized by high intensity and is primarily aimed at working out ways to use the combined group during a possible armed conflict on the peninsula (the "Foul Eagle" exercise/Toksuri", the command and staff exercise "Ilzhi/Freedom Guardian", etc.).
Seoul considers the United States a priority partner in the field of military-technical cooperation. The US accounts for about 90% of the volume of South Korean imports of military products (PVN). The main focus is on the acquisition of aircraft, precision weapons, electronic equipment and technologies for their production. The total value of contracts for the supply of American air defense systems for the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan exceeds $ 20 billion.
In relations with Japan, the Republic of Korea proceeds from the need to increase bilateral political and economic cooperation. But the development of interstate relations is hindered by contradictions related to Tokyo's unwillingness to abandon its claims to the South Korean Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo Islands/Takeshima). Japan's refusal to make official apologies and to pay monetary compensation to victims of sexual slavery during the Japanese occupation of Korea (1910-1945) also remains an acute cause for controversy.
In recent years, the parties have managed to increase the level of cooperation on global issues, including the sphere of regional security. Seoul and Tokyo pursue a coordinated policy towards Pyongyang and adhere to a unified approach to resolving the nuclear issue of the Korean peninsula. Military ties in the trilateral format of the USA-Japan-Kazakhstan are being activated.
An important place in the foreign policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan is given to the Chinese direction. Seoul considers China to be one of the leading states in the region, on whose position the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean peninsula largely depend. This determines the interest of the Republic of Kazakhstan in deepening comprehensive, including military ties with Beijing – especially for the possible use of Chinese influence on Pyongyang. The authorities in Beijing and Seoul are establishing cooperation in the areas of preventing dangerous military activities at sea and in the airspace, eliminating the consequences of natural disasters and man-made disasters. In December 2015, the free trade agreement between Kazakhstan and China came into force.
Seoul initially reluctantly and under obvious pressure from the United States joined the sanctions race against Russia in connection with the Ukrainian crisis, but in February 2023 significantly expanded the sanctions list (up to 800 positions). At the same time, the Republic of Kazakhstan regularly and not without benefit supplies weapons produced by its military-industrial complex to Western countries to replace their weapons transferred to Ukraine.
According to the military doctrine of the Republic of Kazakhstan, one of the most important tools for achieving political goals is the national Armed Forces. The country's leadership considers the DPRK as the most likely opponent.
Plans for the development of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan and their combat use have been developed. They provide for the participation of the Republic of Korea in cooperation with the United States in all types of wars (general, limited and local) on the Korean peninsula and in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, Washington and Seoul are implementing the "Strategy of Expanded Deterrence of the DPRK from the use of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction" (2013), which declares the possibility of pre-emptive strikes in the event of a real threat of the use of weapons of mass destruction by Pyongyang.
In the field of construction of the Armed Forces, the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan is pursuing a course to increase independence in matters of ensuring national security while strengthening the military-political alliance with the United States. The main goal in terms of reforming the national Armed Forces for the period up to 2030 is to create modern, technically equipped and compact armed forces capable of effectively countering potential and sudden threats. The main efforts are planned to be directed to optimizing the organizational and staff structure of the troops (forces), improving the management system, equipping formations and units with weapons and military equipment, introducing information technologies, improving the efficiency of operational and combat training.
NORTH KOREA: BETWEEN CHINA AND Russia
The military-political course of the DPRK, in fact, is aimed at ensuring the survival of the current regime and preserving the cult of the leader's personality.
The main means of achieving this goal is the accelerated implementation of the concept of building a "powerful power" based on the "Korean model" of socialism. At the same time, Pyongyang proceeds from the thesis of the need to spread its ideology to the entire Korean peninsula, strengthen cooperation with the "independent" states of the world and "fight imperialism and its allies" on a global scale.
The theoretical basis of the activities of the DPRK leadership is the state ideology of "Juche". Its meaning boils down to "independence in politics and self-reliance in the economy and defense." The thesis about the vanguard role of the army as the leading force of society is proclaimed. It was officially issued in 1995 in the form of a military-oriented policy ("songun"), which considers military construction as a state priority in all spheres of activity.
A feature of Pyongyang's course is a combination of demonstrative statements and attempts to resume regional negotiations – on terms acceptable to itself, but with uncompromising upholding of principled positions on key issues, including inter-Korean settlement and resolution of the nuclear issue.
Normalization of bilateral relations with the United States is considered in the DPRK as the main factor in ensuring national security. The main goal is to enter into a direct dialogue with Washington on military and political issues and create conditions for signing a peace treaty that should replace the 1953 armistice agreement. According to the estimates of the North Korean leadership, even a partial solution to this problem will allow expanding access to foreign investments and technologies necessary for the modernization of the economy.
The DPRK considers the Republic of Korea to be a temporarily separated part of a single Korean state and officially stands for the peaceful unification of the motherland without the intervention of external forces. At the same time, Pyongyang, despite its interest in resuming cooperation with Seoul, is not going to reduce military tensions on the peninsula and mutual reduction of troop groupings in border areas, linking such steps with the unconditional withdrawal of the US Armed Forces contingent from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Pyongyang believes that Seoul took advantage of the tense situation in inter-Korean relations as an excuse to adjust its plans for military construction, accelerate the build-up of the strike potential of its armed forces and build its own missile defense system to strengthen the military-political alliance with the United States and establish cooperation with Japan.
China is considered by the leadership of the DPRK as the closest strategic ally capable of "immediately providing military and other assistance" if Pyongyang is "subjected to an armed attack by one or more states" (bilateral Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, 1961).
Pyongyang is seeking to increase Chinese investment in the DPRK economy and expand Beijing's participation in joint projects in industry, agriculture and transport. Great importance is attached to the expansion of ties with China in the military and military-technical fields, including the resumption of supplies of Chinese military products free of charge.
At the same time, the North Koreans' relations with the Chinese are cooling, which is reflected in the reduction of contacts in the political and military fields. The main reason was the divergence of the parties in their approaches to the settlement of regional problems, primarily related to the DPRK's nuclear program.
The DPRK considers Russia as a potential partner in various fields. Pyongyang wants to enlist the support of the Russian Federation in solving the problems of regional settlement. And also to receive economic, financial and military-technical assistance necessary to fulfill national economic tasks and reform the national Armed Forces.
Seoul believes that, despite certain differences, Russia's strategic course in many areas meets the interests of the DPRK. Pyongyang supports Russia's approaches to solving a number of international problems, including the Ukrainian crisis. Pyongyang considers the strengthening of Russian positions in the world to be an important factor of stability in Northeast Asia. At the same time, Pyongyang believes that the increased contradictions between Russia and the West, especially in connection with the events in Ukraine, can become the basis for strengthening bilateral cooperation with Moscow.
The North Korean leadership considers the United States and its allies, the ROK and Japan, to be its main political and military opponents. The official military doctrine of the DPRK is defensive in nature. But a number of its provisions provide for the possibility of launching sudden pre-emptive strikes against "opponents of the unification of Korea."
The task of increasing the power of the Korean People's Army (KPA) remains in the foreground. The main focus is on increasing the country's defense capability and deterring potential threats through actions in cyberspace, improving nuclear and missile capabilities.
According to American experts, the DPRK is actively developing the export of its ballistic missiles, components and technologies for their production. Seoul's partners in this area include Iran and Syria.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
