Contrary to the hopes of the West, in the near future, the AFU will not achieve a breakthrough in the counteroffensive, CNBC reports. It is "extremely difficult" for them to make even a crack in the Russian defense, so that the long-awaited operation will only prolong the conflict and risk leading Ukraine into a hopeless situation, experts warn.
Holly Elliat
Key points:
— Ukrainian troops have stumbled upon Russia's powerful defensive structures along the entire thousand-kilometer front line, and this year's counteroffensive is unlikely to go the way Kiev wants.
— Western countries can continue to support Ukraine in 2025.
— Kiev will have to make a choice as to how the armed conflict will end. The most likely option seems to be freezing it.
The fighting between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer, when Kiev launched its long-awaited counteroffensive, and there were hopes for the victory of its troops.
But instead, the APU buried themselves in a thousand-kilometer front line with powerful defensive structures, which sometimes stretch 30 kilometers deep. They were built in the winter, when Ukraine was waiting for additional heavy weapons from the allies in order to launch a counterattack in June.
It became clear that the operation would not bring quick results and that success, measured by the size of the territory captured from the Russians, was by no means guaranteed.
Military experts warn that armed actions are likely to drag on, and Ukraine will be forced to fight for several more years. This will impose a huge burden on both it and its foreign partners, who will have to allocate billions of dollars for military, humanitarian and financial assistance.
"Ukraine must show its ability to achieve results. But everyone understands that she and her forces will not be able to withdraw all Russians from the territory in 2023," said the former commander of the United Forces of Great Britain, General Richard Barrons.
"By the end of the year, both sides will think that by continuing to fight, they will achieve more. Russia cannot retreat, cannot lose <...>. And Ukrainians still have the will to fight, and they do not want to give up the lost lands. They just want more help to pick them up. So we will move on to 2024, and possibly to 2025."
According to the general, by the end of the year, the AFU can achieve some success during the counteroffensive. But this will clearly not be enough to end the conflict.
"To a certain extent, we must recognize this as proof of the feasibility of the concept that Ukraine is capable of winning on the battlefield. But this will require huge efforts [it will need to be further supported], and by the latter I mean $100 billion in aid per year from all its supporters — at least for the period 2024 and 2025."
There is no end in sight
There were hopes that thanks to the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine it would be possible to turn the situation in their favor. But Russian troops dug in on the entire front line running from east to south of Ukraine, creating powerful defensive lines and building a deep-echeloned defense, which consists of minefields, dugouts, trenches and multi-layered anti-tank barriers.
Since the beginning of the operation, the APU has managed to take only a few villages. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense says that troops have advanced eastward in the area of Artemivsk and liberated 204.7 square kilometers of territory in the south of the country. But the army is facing huge problems trying to break through the Russian defenses and go forward in the south, towards Berdyansk and Melitopol.
Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the analytical center of the Royal Institute of Defense Studies, specializing in issues of ground conflicts, said that there is nothing unexpected in the difficulties faced by Ukrainian soldiers.
"In the first months of this year, the Russian armed forces got a good opportunity to gain a foothold on the occupied borders. If you look at what kind of defense they have created, it becomes clear that it will be extremely difficult for Ukrainians to make a crack in it, especially since their air Force cannot fly over the enemy's defensive positions," he said.
One of the main goals of Ukraine is to cut the "land bridge" leading from Russia through the territories it has taken control of in the south to Crimea, but Moscow has erected some of their most powerful defensive structures there.
"Now they [the APU] are literally biting into the first line of defense. But this is 30 kilometers of minefields and trenches. And the Russians are conducting counterattacks. From there to the sea a hundred kilometers, and they walked about eight. So success is a big question," Barrons said.
"The Russian strategy is to retain the occupied territories, and Moscow persists, firmly believing in two things. The first is that Ukrainians will weaken their desire to fight for 15% of the lost lands when they begin to suffer losses on a scale normal for an offensive. The second is that the West will get tired of paying the bills, as it needs to spend money on other tasks."
How will it end?
Military experts say there are likely to be no major breakthroughs this year. But they note that it is very important for Kiev to show at least some results so that the West continues to provide military assistance to it in 2024, and maybe even longer.
"From the point of view of Ukraine, we need to achieve at least some success so that we can turn to NATO and the United States and say: "Look, guys, unfortunately, everything is not as smooth as we wanted, but with the weapons that you gave us, we have done enough <...>. So now you can invest in another goal in the spring of 2024, so that hope does not die," said Jamie Shea, a former senior head of the North Atlantic Alliance, who now works as a defense and security expert at Chatham House.
"I think the danger for Ukrainians is that they will find themselves in a desperate situation, taking very, very few territories, but losing a large number of Western weapons and suffering serious losses," Shi added.
Such a development of events will embolden critics of the current armed actions, and society will become increasingly indignant because of the ongoing financing of Kiev. In addition, the West will have problems with the production of weapons and their supplies.
But for now, Ukraine's allies firmly support it, saying that they will provide assistance as much as "as needed." However, Russia is also not going to give up, Barrons said.
Meanwhile, there are almost no chances for the beginning of a peaceful dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, despite attempts to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table.
Over the weekend, senior leaders from 40 countries, including China and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to agree on key principles that could form the basis of a future settlement.
But Russia was not present at these negotiations. And the coordinator of the US National Security Council for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, said on the eve of the meeting that the White House does not expect "tangible results" from this event.
At some point, Ukraine will have to choose whether this conflict will have a military solution or whether it is necessary to look for another way out without admitting defeat, Barrons noted. One of the ways is a truce, a temporary agreement on the cessation of hostilities. But this will not be the complete end of the conflict.
"One of the ways out is to continue the battle, because Ukraine receives the necessary assistance for this. There is another one: Kiev decides to freeze the armed actions. But we are far from that. There is also a certain middle option, which often appears during conflicts. The fighting just comes to a standstill, and then the sides exchange harsh views for a generation," Barrons said, referring to Greece and Turkey, which entered into a conflict over Cyprus, and then citing as an example the stalemate of North and South Korea, which do not want to resume the clash with each other.
Some Western countries secretly object to continued aid to Ukraine, but Washington has already promised Kiev $40 billion in aid, and many understand how high the stakes are, Barrons said.
"They are aware of the strategic aspect of this conflict, they see it as a confrontation between Moscow and the United States with Europe, when not only the territorial integrity of Ukraine is at stake, but also the security architecture of Europe, the West and Russia," he said.
"This is happening at a time when China is closely watching whether the United States and the EU have enough determination to defend their interests. In such a strategic context, everyone thinks that it will end badly. In other words, we must continue to support Ukraine... but you have to pay for it."
