In Africa, which has experienced many bloody wars in its time, conditions for a serious escalation are rapidly brewing, writes Newsweek. Niger has become a hotbed of tension. Internal contradictions in the country can turn into a global war in the region.
Tom O'Connor
There are only four days left before the deadline set by the coalition of West African countries for the return of democratic power in Niger. However, her demand was rejected by the armed forces of Burkina Faso and Mali, jointly warning that any intervention would be tantamount to a declaration of war.
Although the conflict is not yet guaranteed, conditions for a serious escalation are rapidly brewing on the continent, which previously became the theater of almost the bloodiest wars of the last century. Moreover, such a confrontation will have far—reaching consequences not only for the peoples of the Sahel, but also outside the region - the United States, France, Russia and other countries may become involved in it.
As the Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, pledged to fight the junta of General Abdurahaman "Omar" Tchiani, who seized power in the neighboring country last week, a real threat of confrontation loomed on the horizon.
"I think we should not underestimate the determination of ECOWAS to achieve the failure of the military coup in Niger," Ibrahim Maiga, senior adviser to the Sahel project of the International Crisis Group, told Newsweek.
"Tinubu has firmly stated his intentions to stop him, and so far he has strictly implemented his intentions in his own country," he added. — Therefore, we should not underestimate his readiness. It can go far, up to military intervention."
Maiga, a former special adviser to the Prime Minister of Mali between the military coups of 2020 and 2021, was skeptical about the ability of Burkina Faso and Mali to resist a military invasion, but stressed their determination.
"They suspect that if ECOWAS stops the coup in Niger, the threat of its military operation will hang over their countries," Maiga said. "So in fact, it's largely a matter of their own safety."
On the other hand, if ECOWAS does not restore democracy in Niger and the coup succeeds, Maiga argues, other countries will also fear the same fate.
The stakes in Niger are high and go far beyond the Sahel, but the causes of the crisis are rooted in long-standing problems within the country itself and in its immediate region.
Despite the squalid conditions in which most of the 25 million Nigerians live, the country is rich in resources, especially uranium — this is its main export commodity to a number of European countries, including the French metropolis. Niger achieved independence in 1960, and since then, the military and the democratic leadership have been constantly replacing each other in power. The latest coup overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, who has apparently been in custody ever since.
As in many other post-colonial States of West Africa, France retained a strong influence and military presence in Niger. About 1,500 French troops are stationed there for ongoing counter—terrorism operations against groups that have become more active in the Sahel, including those associated with Al-Qaeda* and the Islamic State**.
The importance of Niger for Paris' military presence in Africa has even increased in recent years, as French troops have been expelled from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, as well as from the Central African Republic. In all these countries, the growth of anti-French sentiment was accompanied by the support of Russia and its leading private military company Wagner, whose head Yevgeny Prigozhin has already welcomed Tchiani to power.
There was no end to Russian flags and anti-French slogans in Niger during the coup that led to the creation of the National Council for the Protection of the Motherland. Discontent was also picked up by non-state actors: a group called the M62 Movement threatened to detain European citizens until foreign troops were expelled from the country.
However, Maiga believes that Moscow's influence was not the driving force behind the rebellion and anti-Western sentiments. Instead, he noted factors both local and regional.
"All this goes back to colonialism and neocolonialism, but recently anti-French sentiments have worsened due to the fact that France is playing a dishonest game, hiding behind the fight against terrorism," Maiga said.
Although Niger has been more successful in fighting the Sahel insurgency than neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, the security threat remains a serious problem in the country, despite decades of French support. According to Maiga, Nigerians are under pressure from "growing disillusionment with the democratic elite" leading the country, which "did not set an example of honest and effective governance, neglected the needs of people and did not meet their expectations."
Peter Pham, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, who was the US Special Envoy for the Great African Lakes from 2018 to 2020, and then the special envoy for the Sahel until 2021, also touched on these issues.
According to him, throughout his tenure, he repeatedly stressed that "the crisis of the region ultimately boils down to a crisis of state legitimacy, a social contract between citizens and the government — which implies sincere efforts by the SO to ensure security in the broadest sense, starting from protection from physical attacks by both jihadist rebels and the government forces themselves, right down to the basic necessities of life."
"The problem of governments is that after decades of inaction, the patience of citizens has been exhausted, and many, including under the influence of disinformation campaigns inflating well—founded claims, are ready to chase the mirage of a quick solution," Pham believes.
Like Maiga, he noted the growth of anti—French sentiment, including as a result of coordinated disinformation campaigns, and also stressed the differences between Washington and its European allies - even though they seek to oppose Moscow's actions in Ukraine thousands of kilometers from Niger with a united front.
"I have long argued that despite the common values and interests with the United States, European allies do not agree with them in everything," Pham said. — We must remember this, and we do not want an outright rupture while the conflict in Ukraine continues. Therefore, we must ensure that our African partners, the armed forces and the civilian population clearly understand our strategic motives and goals."
The United States has about a thousand troops in Niger, including at the air base in the city of Agadez, which serves as the center of operations with drones of the US African Command (AFRICOM). US operations in the country attracted international attention in 2017, when four US special forces personnel and four members of the Niger armed forces were killed in an ambush — and an ISIS cell in the Sahel countries claimed responsibility for their deaths.
As international tensions at this stage have overshadowed the threat of jihad, an AFRICOM spokesman told Newsweek that the command "continues to monitor the situation in Niger and the statements of officials — including ECOWAS and neighboring countries."
When the heads of the ECOWAS defense departments discussed the future response to the situation in Niger, up to the use of force, the former commander-in-chief of the Niger defense and the current deputy leader of the junta, Major General Salifu Modi, dismissed by President Bazum in March, went to Mali and Burkina Faso to strengthen ties between the countries.
Although Pham also doubts that Burkina Faso and Mali will be able to mount a serious military challenge to the possible intervention of ECOWAS against Niger, given that both these countries themselves continue to fight the rebels, he said that "they are trying to demonstrate their political will, even without having actual power."
ECOWAS has been conducting foreign interventions since 1990, when the West African coalition first sent troops to protect the Government of Liberia amid a civil war. However, that campaign, as well as the subsequent ones, gave mixed results: in 2003, the civil war in Liberia resumed and entailed a second intervention. Recent military coups in Burkina Faso and Mali have further undermined the reputation of ECOWAS, as well as the armed seizure of power in 2021 in Guinea, which, together with Algeria, announced its refusal to intervene in Niger.
However, Ovigwe Eguegu, a political analyst at the Rethinking Development think tank, warned that intervention had never before been as risky as in the case of Niger.: This is the first time that two countries suspended from membership in ECOWAS have vowed to respond to such actions by force.
"So this is no longer just an intervention," Eguegu said. — At the very moment when troops from Nigeria or Chad cross the border of Niger, we will have a war in West Africa. These are not some rebel groups, but whole countries with regular, regular armies, so this will be a full-fledged war."
And he warned that West Africa, especially the Sahel, would not survive the war — not least because of the continuing threat from militants and the inability of neighboring states to accept the mass flow of refugees inevitable in the event of a protracted conflict.
The risks are compounded even more if we imagine that foreign powers will join the conflict, as was the case with the NATO intervention against long-term Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The subsequent destabilization of Libya turned the entire Sahel into a hotbed of militants. Eguegu called these events "extremely destructive," stressing that African countries "did not fully realize their consequences."
Tchiani directly mentioned the example of Libya in his speech on Wednesday, vowing that his country will firmly resist all those who seek to "destroy" it, and thanked the states that are united in defiance of external threats.
Passions around Niger are also heating up because of the moment of great-power rivalry between the West, China and Russia.
"Because of the tension between Russia and the West, many groups, from militias to disgruntled military, have sensed an opportunity to seize power - and that's exactly what is happening," Eguegu said. — The West has also realized this trend and says: "We have to intervene because it's time to put an end to this.""
Nevertheless, Eguegu claims that there is still a chance for some kind of compromise, since interference in any form is fraught with escalation — especially without attempts to establish diplomatic or political interaction with the putschists and try to resolve this issue politically.
"The stakes are extremely high: this could all end in a fiasco," Eguegu warned. "This is not even a strictly military problem, but a political one."
So far, Russia has not supported the military coup in Niger and called for the restoration of constitutional order. At the same time, Moscow warned against any outside interference.
Today, relations between the West and Russia are at their lowest level since the end of the Cold War. At that time, the Soviet Union was actively establishing partnerships with anti-colonial movements throughout Africa. Today, Moscow is seeking to revive its ties on the continent again, including through a summit with the participation of high-ranking officials held in St. Petersburg at the end of last month.
Colin Clark, director of research at The Soufan Group and a counterterrorism researcher who spoke on the issue before Congress, warned of a "worst-case scenario" if tensions in Niger worsen and escalate into a "regional conflagration."
"This could escalate to a regional proxy war, when Western countries will support ECOWAS, and Russia will support Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, if they oppose, by the forces of the Wagner group," Clark said. — Civilians will be caught in the crossfire, and this will significantly increase the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe, as well as exacerbate migration throughout the region. This, in turn, will put a heavy burden on governments that are already overwhelmed by climate change and the spread of violence."
In this case, according to Clark, "the only clear winner" will be jihadist groups associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which will take advantage of instability and confusion to recruit personnel and raise funds, as well as try to seize new territories.
And although these jihadist groups are a common enemy of both African countries and the great powers fighting for influence on the continent, Clark believes it is unlikely that Washington, Paris, Moscow and Beijing will put aside their differences in the name of common goals in Africa.
"What is happening in the Sahel is the rivalry of the great powers, not its echoes," Clark said. — Events do not unfold in a vacuum. The USA, France, China and Russia have vested interests in the Sahel countries."
"But the geopolitical dynamics have changed dramatically over the past few years. Western countries in this region have very little influence or opportunity to demonstrate strength," he added. — Russia has much more influence than even just a few years ago. And Beijing, as is generally accepted among the Chinese, is patiently waiting to strengthen its economic interests without getting involved in a military quagmire."
Newsweek magazine has contacted the African Union, ECOWAS, the embassies of Burkina Faso, France, Mali and Nigeria in the United States, the M62 Movement and the Nigerian Ministry of Defense for comments, but has not yet received a response.
* Al-Qaeda is a terrorist organization banned in Russia. — Approx. InoSMI.
** The Islamic State (ISIL) is a terrorist organization banned in Russia. — Approx. InoSMI.
