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NATO's New Space Wars: Just Another Battlefield

Sections: Space, Global safety
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Image source: © AFP 2022 / KENZO TRIBOUILLARD

A new center for advanced technologies in the field of space research and threat analysis will soon open in the French city of Toulouse.

Next to the future Space forces headquarters building, which is currently under construction in Toulouse, another building, the new NATO Advanced Technology Center, will be completed in 2025. Interestingly, both buildings will be located near the French National Space Research Center (CNES). It turns out that the "hub" is a new focus of scientific, industrial and military specialists. Because the new Center of Advanced Technologies of NATO will be engaged in conducting space operations. The North Atlantic Alliance officially granted the appropriate permission for the construction of such a center at the last summit in Vilnius, putting an end to months of discussions. Germany also acted as a candidate for the location of the new Center, but France won. The task of the new Center will be to "promote the formation of conceptual thinking in Western armies" in general, but its main task is to analyze space threats. The NATO allies began to do what they should have done long ago — they began to coordinate their defense concepts.

The battlefield expanded into space

Since 2019, outer space (at an altitude of more than 100 km) has been considered by NATO as the "fifth environment" for military operations, along with land, sea, air and cyber environments. However, there is no news here: since the mid-2010s, space has been considered by the military as a place of potential confrontation. In France, the Defense Ethics Committee has already issued a conclusion on space defense: "The protection of French interests can be legally carried out in space, from space and with the help of space," explained the chairman of the committee, Bernard Pêcheur. But at the same time, it should be noted that the concept of France's own military space operations has not yet been defined.

"We will create concepts, think about the doctrine, i.e. how to use this concept, train people and work on feedback. This is a full—cycle system," explains Colonel Thierry Chapeaux, who will soon head this newest Center. Among the tasks set will be the following: to determine what the center will do, as well as how the new knowledge it has acquired can be applied in defense. The Center should submit its proposals for the preparation of the doctrine of space operations "in two to three years." The work does not start from scratch, since some armies of NATO countries, including the armed forces of France, already have their own military space forces, including the corresponding command centers. 15 of the 31 allied countries participate in the work of the steering committee of the NATO Center for Advanced Technologies. Alas, in NATO, only a small number of specialists own this topic: in total, no more than thirty people with relevant competencies work in the military organizations of the alliance. Unlike more traditional spheres of military affairs, the alliance's military and space potential is not consolidated into a single system within the framework of the allied command. Each country remains independent in the military space sphere and provides its resources in accordance with the needs of the alliance.

Wars on earth, in space and even in all dimensions

In the near future, the United States should also join the work of this structure. Formally, the US Army had to wait for accreditation (work permit) at the center. But the command of the US Military space Forces did not wait for its partners to engage in a detailed study of the doctrine. "The way we conducted space operations at the beginning of the space age no longer fits into the modern context," General Shaw, deputy commander of the space forces, said recently during a discussion at the Mitchell Institute. For the space command, it is now not just about supporting other military operations, such as intelligence or communications, but about protection and defense in "geographical space". General Shaw advocates the transition to "dynamic" space operations. "This may be the most fundamental change in the doctrine that we will be able to see in the next four to five years," he said.

The NATO Center for Advanced Technologies will have to comprehend the upcoming changes in the space sphere and achieve coordination of approaches and definitions between the allies. For example, there is no clear concept of "unfriendly" behavior in space. "There is no definition of "unfriendly behavior" in any document of space law. The various existing UN agreements and principles that relate to outer space do not give an unambiguous definition today," the special instruction on military space law issued in France says. Western lawyers are also trying to transfer the usual legal norms to space. It cannot be said that outer space is now completely "illegal territory", but the legal definition of military operations permitted in space is still unclear. For example, an international treaty of 1967 prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space, but lawyers have found a way out here: the storage of such weapons in space is not prohibited.

"The whole problem is that many elements of space technology can be used for both peaceful and military purposes. This is a dual-use technique. And there is no clear distinction between what is military activity in space and what is peaceful - there is no such distinction yet. And this leads to difficulties," says General Adam, a member of the space forces command.

Lessons from the Ukrainian conflict: space as a sphere of military operations

The Center has also set itself the task of drawing conclusions from the Ukrainian conflict: it will have to determine the role of space intelligence, clarify the possibilities of military use of satellite communications ... "The number of dual—use elements in the space sphere is simply amazing," General Adam emphasizes. Civilian and military specialists work side by side here. Their interests are interrelated. "We are aware of this: there is no escape from the duality of space means," Adam continues. For example, SpaceX, not the armed forces, is responsible for the operability of the Starlink satellites placed at the disposal of the Ukrainian army. The inevitable presence of civilian specialists in space also raises the question of their status in wartime conditions: will these people be considered participants in hostilities or not?

In addition, there is a change in the approach to the Aerospace Forces, the military space forces. "We used to consider the strategic use of space potential," General Adam continues. "But in Ukraine we have seen the tactical use of this potential, which requires completely different decision—making schemes."

It turns out that the military command should reconsider the organization of its work in order to provide real-time support for its troops from satellites. The question may seem technical. But this is not the case. The North Atlantic Alliance is going to wage war with its enemies in many spheres and in different environments, including space. If NATO wants to achieve superiority in all of them, it is necessary to develop coordination. And we need to think about this immediately.

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