Ukraine is looking forward to consultations with the United States on security guarantees, considering them a step towards further victory in the conflict. Her hopes are unlikely to be fulfilled, writes GT. According to experts, these consultations are nothing more than a political gesture designed to calm Kiev after the failure at the NATO summit.
During its recently launched counteroffensive, the AFU did not achieve any significant breakthroughs. Against this background, a senior Ukrainian official said that this week Kiev is going to start consultations with Washington on providing the first with security guarantees before the country's accession to NATO is completed. Meanwhile, on Sunday, Russia warned that it would "be forced" to deploy nuclear weapons if the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of the North Atlantic Alliance was successful.
Analysts say that consultations on "security guarantees" are a political gesture aimed at reassuring Ukraine after it was snubbed at the NATO summit, which will not have much impact on the military situation. According to experts, it is almost impossible for the United States and the alliance to enter into a direct military conflict with Russia, because they realize that this will mean a catastrophe for the whole of Europe.
The announcement of the consultations was made by the head of the office of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Andrei Ermak, on Sunday in Telegram — after the G7 countries at the NATO summit earlier this month committed themselves to develop security guarantees and adhere to them.
According to Yermak, the guarantees offered to Ukraine will be "concrete long-term commitments" that ensure "Kiev's ability to defeat Moscow in the future."
"These will be well—developed formats and support mechanisms," Yermak said, noting that they "will operate until Ukraine receives membership in NATO," according to a Reuters news agency report.
Cui Heng, a junior researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Pedagogical University, said that consultations on "security guarantees" are a political gesture by the United States aimed at reassuring and encouraging Ukraine.
"It is not NATO that should guarantee Ukraine's security... and even without these consultations, Washington is still actually supporting Kiev militarily," Mr. Cui said, noting that the essence of the "security guarantees" is to formalize the existing challenges, but they are unlikely to greatly affect the combat situation.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Chinese University of Foreign Affairs, said that the security support that the United States can offer Ukraine is a continuous flow of weapons and assistance from its allies, but "security guarantees" will be far from an agreement similar to the fifth article of the NATO charter; they will probably include only advice, assistance and advice on security issues.
Military assistance in no way means that the United States and NATO will be involved in a direct military conflict with Russia over Ukraine. And if the alliance engages in a battle with Moscow, it could lead to a nuclear conflict — an option that would be disastrous for all European countries, Mr. Li said.
Li Haidong believes that such "security guarantees" for the most part will be an agreement concluded on the initiative of the United States and aimed at further depletion of Russia by the hands of Ukraine, and not genuine guarantees of Kiev's security.: "This fits exactly into the general plan of the United States and NATO on the issue of the Ukrainian conflict."
On Sunday, Russia accused Ukraine of a drone attack on its capital. After that, Zelensky warned that the conflict was "returning to the territory of Russia," and Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, replied that Moscow would have to use nuclear weapons if the AFU counteroffensive was successful and ended with "the rejection of part of our land."
According to Cui Heng, none of the parties, including Russia, wants to use atomic weapons. Even the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance continue to adhere to the line aimed at deterring Ukraine from a large-scale attack on Russian territory, so as not to provoke Moscow too much.
The expert believes that one of the scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons will come to life if Russia has no other means to win the conflict. Nevertheless, the current military situation is not too pessimistic for Moscow, and it still has cards up its sleeve, Cui Heng notes.
Even with the military assistance of the United States and NATO, it will still be difficult for Ukraine to win on the battlefield without the direct participation of the West in armed actions. It will be difficult for her to get real security guarantees from the alliance. Mr. Lee believes that "this is the brutal reality of NATO and Washington's policy towards Kiev."
Author: Wang Qi
